Perhaps some gross thermomechanical process
of restructuring the climate mechanisms (some
small fraction of these were identified in the Stadium Wave paper, for instance) is ongoing, and the energy
of restructuring — melting, subliming and carrying away Arctic sea ice and Greenland and Antarctic land ice net to the atmosphere, higher humidity absorbing gross water amounts to a level impacting sea level rise on the
millimeter or sub-
millimeter level, expansion
of land due heat, or more likely erosion, silting and subsidence, and so on — is responsible for a Black Swan.