However, human activity may have already caused some some changes that are not yet detectable due to
the small magnitude of the changes or observation limitations, or are not yet confidently modeled (e.g., aerosol effects on regional climate).
Not exact matches
The new skin can sense
changes that are an order
of magnitude smaller and have a responsivity that is two orders
of magnitude larger than those
of other electronic skins over a 45 - degree temperature range.
Small drifts in baseline were observed over the course
of the experiments, but these
changes had little effect on the interpretation
of the data because response
magnitude was proportional to baseline activity.
Similarly (and perhaps relatedly), the
magnitude of the
change in aerosol forcing from ~ 1975 to present relative to the
change in all forcings is much
smaller than from pre-ind through present, which I think should make the TCR estimated over that period insensitive to the value
of E.
Changes in insolation are also thought to have arisen from
small variations in solar irradiance, although both timing and
magnitude of past solar radiation fluctuations are highly uncertain (see Chapters 2 and 6; Lean et al., 2002; Gray et al., 2005; Foukal et al., 2006).
The discovery
of other,
smaller magnitude, rapid greenhouse warming events (called hyperthermals) in the millions
of years following the PETM provides further opportunities to examine the response
of organisms to global climate
change.
The actual
magnitude of these
changes in test scores, however, is not statistically significant at conventional levels and is relatively
small compared with Baron's findings.
When you consider that the day to day and month to month swings in the market are
magnitudes smaller than the
changes in air temperature on the occasions you dare venture outside during an ad break on Fast Money, it kind
of brings a bit
of perspective.
That increases the size
of the temperature
change per «
small change»
of doubling
of CO2 by almost one order
of magnitude, and many people would dispute that an approximately 10 % GHG - driven temperature increase for a «
small change» in greenhouse forcing is a «
small temperature
change».
... Polar amplification explains in part why Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appear to be highly sensitive to relatively
small increases in CO2 concentration and global mean temperature... Polar amplification occurs if the
magnitude of zonally averaged surface temperature
change at high latitudes exceeds the globally averaged temperature
change, in response to climate forcings and on time scales greater than the annual cycle.
Also connect with problem areas and things that may seem counterintuitive or unimaginable to people's lived experience — like scales for instance:
of time,
of large
magnitudes and finiteness,
of how seemingly
small percentages
of compounds or
changes in temperature can have large impacts.
In my briefings to the Association
of Small Island States in Bali, the 41 Island Nations
of the Caribbean, Pacific, and Indian Ocean (and later circulated to all member states), I pointed out that IPCC had seriously and systematically UNDERESTIMATED the extent
of climate
change, showing that the sensitivity
of temperature and sea level to CO2 clearly shown by the past climate record in coral reefs, ice cores, and deep sea sediments is orders
of magnitude higher than IPCC's models.
For
smaller changes, this may not be so apparent or important (a doubling
of CO2 from 280 to 560 ppm may have about the same
magnitude of forcing and result in the same
magnitude of feedback as halving CO2 from 560 to 280 ppm).
Second, the proposed future effects
of rising temperatures on endemicity are at least one order
of magnitude smaller than
changes observed since about 1900 and up to two orders
of magnitude smaller than those that can be achieved by the effective scale - up
of key control measures.
In my opinion, a possible global climate
change - induced increase
of a percent or two here or there in the number
of tornadoes / hurricanes / * enter your favorite hazard here * is orders
of magnitude smaller (in terms
of a problem) in comparison to vulnerability issues.
The GRACE observations over Antarctica suggest a near - zero
change due to combined ice and solid earth mass redistribution; the
magnitude of our GIA correction is substantially
smaller than previous models have suggested and hence we produce a systematically lower estimate
of ice mass
change from GRACE data: we estimate that Antarctica has lost 69 ± 18 Gigatonnes per year (Gt / yr) into the oceans over 2002 - 2010 — equivalent to +0.19 mm / yr globally - averaged sea level
change, or about 6 %
of the sea - level
change during that period.
This
change in the size and location
of the coronal holes on the sun has resulted in less solar wind bursts and
smaller magnitude solar wind bursts which explains why there is suddenly high latitude cooling.
Third, even if a
small imbalance
of the
small, unmeasurable
magnitude expected from CO2
changes could be measured (again, it can't) if would not say anything whatsoever about its cause.
And while by eye I could conjecture 86 %
of the one year CO2 rise were temperature - correlated in any yearly cycle, clearly there is much greater temperature variability in the region
of Mauna Loa in a year (~ 5 - 10C) than there has been globally since observations started (~ 0.7 C), so one would only consider Dr. Spencer's claims plausible if the rise in CO2 since 1960 were
smaller than the
change in a single year by a factor
of ten, rather than larger by an order
of magnitude.
I do not see activity
changes of that
magnitude occurring on your graph — admittedly the period
of coverage is limited to 30 years and is therefore a very
small sampling.
One
of the problems with irradiance as a driver for climate
change is that though the
changes seem to be fairly well correlated with the temperature anomaly, many scientists think the
magnitude is too
small to totally account for temperature
changes.
I also find it more feasible that the KNOWN increase in surface temps across the ENTIRE surface
of the ocean is responsible rather than an UNKNOWN
change of UNKNOWN
MAGNITUDE of UNKNOWN SIGN from thermal vents that cover only a relatively
small percentage
of the ocean floor.
It will be important to realize that the
changes projected by the papers will inevitably vary from what would (or will) actually happen, but the probability that they will be off by orders
of magnitude seems quite
small.
Well, that is fuzzy, but the issue seems to be identifying what constitutes dangerous climate
change and eliminating the likelihood that the
magnitude of the sensitivity will be
small.
I agree that reduction in snow or ice cover resulting from warming constitutes a likely slow positive feedback, but its
magnitude may be quite
small, at least for the modest
changes in surface temperature that can be expected to arise if sensitivity is in fact fairly low, so the Forster / Gregory 06 results may nevertheless be a close approximation to a measurement
of equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Another paper in Climate
Change in 2007 stated: Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban - related trend is an order
of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time - scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999)... Thus, the global land warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing urbanization (Parker, 2006).
So effective are stratocumulus in altering Earth's energy budget that
small changes in their aerial coverage could have impacts similar in
magnitude to the impacts
of all anthropogenic emissions
of greenhouse gases (e.g. Slingo (1990)-RRB-.
4 W / m2 may seem
small to you, but is an order
of magnitude larger than the solar
change associated with the Maunder Minimum and Little Ice Age.
What he shows is that a
change in the radiative balance between the surface and the atmosphere even by a larger amount, such as 10 W / m ^ 2 would result in only a very
small surface temperature
change while a
change in the greenhouse effect (i.e., the radiative balance between the earth and space) by 10 W / m ^ 2 results in a much larger surface temperature
change (almost 2 orders
of magnitude larger if I recall correctly).
The
magnitude of these temperature
changes is
smaller than those seen for DJF.
The bicentennial trend lines clearly diverge from the past 30 or 50 or hundred years, and the most closely fitting explanation for this behavior is anthropogenic causes shifting the trends leaving only a shadow
of natural variability superimposed on the sharp centennial scale rise, at about an order
of magnitude smaller amplitude than the
changes associated with GHGs and dampened by man - made aerosols.
Thus, rather than
changing the Earth - sun distance by ~ + / -0.5 % and thus solar TSI by ~ + / -1 % from average, it would
change it by two orders
of magnitude less (with the annual average effect perhaps
smaller still, although varying with Jupiter's alignment with the semimajor axis, etc.).
Total solar irradiance
changes, though
of small magnitude, do appear to affect sea surface temperatures (SSTs), most obviously at latitudes where cloud cover is
small and irradiance is abundant, such as the Northern Hemisphere subtropics during summer.
Over the last 24 years, the
magnitude of the ice
changes associated with the positive AO trend and the negative ENSO trend is much
smaller than the regional ice trends.