(In the full 4 - dimensional climate, responses can also tend spread horizontally by convection (advection) and temporally by heat capacity, though «fingerprints» of horizontal and temporal variations in RF (externally imposed and feedback —
snow and ice albedo, for example) can remain — this spreading is somewhat different as it relies in part on the circulation already present as well as circulation changes)
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics of aerosol effects (warming from black carbon, cooling from sulphates and nitrates, indirect effects on clouds, indirect effects on
snow and ice albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really large (as acknowledged above).
You are welcome to try something similar with global radiative forcing fluctuation, but if you do it will be rather tricky to isolate the cloud effect, since you have
the snow and ice albedo effect to deal with then, which are largely temperature - related feedbacks.
Not exact matches
White areas covered with
snow and ice reflect sunlight; the effect is called
albedo.
The research showed that, compared to pure
snow and ice, the reflectivity of the glacier (known as the «
albedo») can be reduced by up to 80 % in places where coloured microbial populations are extremely dense, leading to the darkening of the glacier surface.
With the
albedo of older
snow and ice at about 0.6, the open ocean will absorb more heat than the
ice capped ocean.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea
ice and attendant decreases in
albedo, effects of the deposition of soot
and dust on
snow and ice decreasing
albedo,
and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
Due to the positive feedback caused by the high
albedo of
snow and ice, susceptibility to falling into snowball states might be a generic feature of water - rich planets with the capacity to host life.
With higher precipitation, portions of this
snow may not melt during the summer
and so glacial
ice can form at lower altitudes
and more southerly latitudes, reducing the temperatures over land by increased
albedo as noted above.
He then uses what information is available to quantify (in Watts per square meter) what radiative terms drive that temperature change (for the LGM this is primarily increased surface
albedo from more
ice /
snow cover,
and also changes in greenhouse gases... the former is treated as a forcing, not a feedback; also, the orbital variations which technically drive the process are rather small in the global mean).
The importance of orbital variations, of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4
and N2O, of the
albedo of land
ice sheets, annual mean
snow cover, sea
ice area
and vegetation,
and of the radiative perturbation of mineral dust in the atmosphere are investigated.
Specifically, increasing the
snow albedo delayed the melting of
snow and sea
ice in spring, which increased the
albedo difference to the experiment in which
snow grains were assumed spherical.
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction in solar forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice - sheets,
snow and desert.
26 Paul W asked, «On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction in solar forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice - sheets,
snow and desert.
In addition, since the global surface temperature records are a measure that responds to
albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land use,
snow and ice cover) solar output,
and differences in partition of various forcings into the oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water /
ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting
snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases
albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude
and slowing, just like the lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude
and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought
and extreme temperatures —
and 30,000 + Europeans
and 5,000 plus Russians die,
and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop,
and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Increased CO2 does not warm the atmosphere, it melts the
snow and ice reducing global
albedo,
and that causes AGW.
I guess I am surprised that with better understanding of the importance of water vapor feedback, sulfate aerosols, black carbon aerosols, more rapid than expected declines in sea
ice and attendant decreases in
albedo, effects of the deposition of soot
and dust on
snow and ice decreasing
albedo,
and a recognition of the importance of GHGs that were probably not considered 30 years ago, that the sensitivity has changed so little over time.
Our analysis of observations from four years of field experiments indicates that seasonal
ice undergoes an
albedo evolution with seven phases; cold
snow, melting
snow, pond formation, pond drainage, pond evolution, open water,
and freezeup.
The modeling in Moelg
and Hardy is done using an
albedo model for clean
snow and ice, which yields similar values to those measured in the Antarctic.
28, Alastair McDonald: Increased CO2 does not warm the atmosphere, it melts the
snow and ice reducing global
albedo,
and that causes AGW.
This positive climate feedback is greater than expected from the additional forcing alone, due to amplification by reduced surface
albedo through melting of continental
snow and decreased sea -
ice coverage, especially in the wintertime.
black soot has also been found by a recent university of california study to be the direct cause of the
albedo warming effect on the otherwise highly reflective
and pristine white arctic
ice &
snow.
, (3) changes in surface
albedo of
snow &
ice due to changes in temperature
and deposition of mineral
and black carbon particulates,
and last, but arguably most significantly (4) the intensity of the positive feedback that comes from the inevitable -LRB-?)
Ecological succession
and biological evolution would also provide hysteresis (for example, I read of an idea that under some conditions, bogs will tend to take over forests; these bogs will have a higher
albedo than forest when
snow falls, thus potentially bringing an
ice age...).
On the studies of sensitivity based on the last glacial maximum, what reduction in solar forcing is used based on the increased
Albedo of the
ice - sheets,
snow and desert.
For instance, the effect of soot making
snow and sea
ice darker has a higher efficacy than an equivalent change in CO2 with the same forcing, mainly because there is a more important
ice -
albedo feedback in the soot case.
Analysis of observed declines in sea
ice and snow coverage from 1979 to 2008 suggests that the NH
albedo feedback is between 0.3
and 1.1 W m — 2 °C — 1 (Flanner et al., 2011).
Furthermore, decline in
snow cover
and sea
ice will tend to amplify regional warming through
snow and ice -
albedo feedback effects (see Glossary
and Chapter 9).
Since it reflects the capacity of the climate system to absorb heat, it may be influenced by the planetary
albedo (sea -
ice and snow)
and ice - caps, which respond to temperature changes.
Snow and ice has a high
albedo and when it is replaced by sea water or soil
and tundra the
albedo drops
and there is warming, this is simple optics.
Both are related to feedback mechanisms which can amplify or dampen initial changes, such as the connection between temperature
and the
albedo associated with sea -
ice and snow.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks)
and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor
and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor
and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the
albedo feedback was key (while sea
ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the
albedo feedback,
and this is released in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter
snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
... A new sea -
ice albedo parameterization scheme has been developed
and implemented in ECHAM5 general circulation model,
and includes important components like
albedo decay due to
snow aging,
ice thickness dependency
and an explicit treatment of melt pond
albedo.
Global average temperature is lower during glacial periods for two primary reasons: 1) there was only about 190 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere,
and other major greenhouse gases (CH4
and N2O) were also lower 2) the earth surface was more reflective, due to the presence of lots of
ice and snow on land,
and lots more sea
ice than today (that is, the
albedo was higher).
It is not that the polar regions are amplifying the warming «going on» at lower latitudes, it is that any warming going on AT THE POLES is amplified through inherent positive feedback processes AT THE POLES,
and specifically this is primarily the
ice -
albedo positive feedback process whereby more open water leads to more warming leads to more open water, etc. *** «Climate model simulations have shown that
ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in
snow and sea -
ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...»
«Climate model simulations have shown that
ice albedo feedbacks associated with variations in
snow and sea -
ice coverage are a key factor in positive feedback mechanisms which amplify climate change at high northern latitudes...»
I attribute this to rapidly retreating
snow cover
and sea
ice replacing high
albedo surfaces with low
albedo.
Add a dramatic increase of CO2
and methane emissions to the
albedo declines of sped up Arctic
ice and snow cover losses
and you may still witness a runaway situation.
When the oceans are warm
and the Arctic is open, it does
snow like crazy
and that does increase
ice albedo and earth does stop warming
and does start cooling.
When the oceans are cold
and the Arctic is frozen, it does not
snow much
and that does allow a decrease in
ice albedo and earth does stop cooling
and does start warming.
The initial warming also reduces the surface
albedo by melting
snow and sea -
ice, which likewise constitutes a positive feedback because
snow and ice are effective reflectors of sunlight.
Does anyone track global
snow /
ice extent
and relate it to
albedo?
Estimating the cloudy sky
albedo of sea
ice and snow from space.
Ice ages come on slowly as the
albedo from greater
and greated
snow coverage increases causing greater
and greater cooling, but end rapidly as the melt back rapidly decreases the
albedo.
When the flux is increased, the planet undergoes a decrease in surface
albedo which is due to the melting of the permanent polar
ice caps
and the reduced seasonal
snow cover.
This estimate was refined by Hansen
and Nazarenko (2004), who used measured BC concentrations within
snow and ice at a wide range of geographic locations to deduce the perturbation to the surface
and planetary
albedo, deriving an RF of +0.15 W mâ $ «2.
This estimate does not include the semi-direct effect or the BC impact on
snow and ice surface
albedo (see Sections 2.5.4
and 2.8.5.6)
In the case of
albedo this is a positive feedback because the warmer a hemisphere gets the lower its
albedo as its
ice and snow disappear.
The principal feedbacks are water vapor,
snow -
ice albedo, clouds,
and lapse rate.