While we believe payrolls and average hourly earnings are both likely to miss consensus estimates, we think the employment report may be somewhat less important than usual for the monetary policy outlook, because 1) recent data have been firm
so we have some room for a miss, 2) the August
seasonal issue is now well known
so even a somewhat larger miss may not significantly alter the staff view, and 3) there are several months between now and December to make up for any
weakness in tomorrow's report.