The record shows high and stable coherence and consistent phasing with solar irradiance estimates at bi-centennial time scales (194 -222-year periods), the ~ 208 - year de Vries
solar cycle frequency (figure 84; Anchukaitis et al., 2017).
I think
solar cycle frequency is «the knob» — high frequencies (short cycles) cause warming and low frequencies cooling, with some lag and some «system memory».
The late 20th century divergence is partly due to local anthropogenic warming and partly to other factors, such as longterm multicentennial linear trend in
solar cycle frequency (thermal inertia of oceans and ice).
Not exact matches
Comparing their ages with the 35 - million - year
cycle of the bobbing
solar system showed that in some cases, a spike in the
frequency of comet strikes closely overlapped passing through the disc, in others it didn't.
Human behavioral changes, such as installing
solar panels or investing in public transportation, alter greenhouse gas emissions, which change the global temperature and thus the
frequency of extreme events, leading to new behaviors, and the
cycle continues.
The study tracked changes in the sun by looking at previous
solar cycles of change, such as
Cycle 22 which lasted from the years 1986 to 1996, and found that the oscillation
frequencies were confined to a thinner layer than those previous
cycles.
The
solar activity, which varies with the 11 - year sunspot
cycle, also affects the
frequency of auroras.
what you are missing [and I have pointed that to you before, but you are a slow learner, apparently] is that for resonance to occur, the forcing must occur at a natural
frequency of the system, so the climate must already have an 11 - yr
cycle [due to other things] for the
solar cycle to be creating resonance.
The
frequency of the primary oscillation with sensitivity is, remarkably, 215 years which is the De Vries
Solar Cycle.
So I got rid of higher
frequency seasonal,
solar cycle, volcanic, ENSO Hale, whatever.
ENSO for example averages about 2x the
frequency of the
solar cycle.
Hmmm... either Vaughn needs more time than usual to come up with a handwaving comeback for Solver finding the
frequency of the De Vries
Solar Cycle or another relative has come to visit.
Solar oscillations are not of constant
frequency and
cycles with lower amplitude are usually longer.
When the climate system is at a cold state (the LIA for example), even a prolonged high
solar frequency can not bring it to a much warmer state ever the course of just a few
cycles — it takes time.
Those who support a
solar - climate link will of course now concentrate on how the
solar cycle might influence the El Nino / La Nina magnitudes and
frequencies.
4) By increasing the averaging time scale one remove «high
frequency»
cycles (i.e. ENSO) but put in evidence some larger scale
cycles such as: a)
Solar cycle (11 years) using a 3 to 4 years averaging b) PDO
cycle (60 years) using a 13 years averaging.
From the
solar cycle variations of p - and f - modes [and we have now enough data from the SOHO spacecraft to make such a study] we now have an internally consistent picture of the origin of these
frequency changes that implies a sun that is coolest at activity maximum when it is most irradiant.
By increasing the averaging time scale you remove «high
frequencies»
cycles (i.e. ENSO) but make appear some larger scale
cycles such as
solar cycle (11 years) or PDO
cycle (60 years).
Multi-scale harmonic model for
solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter — Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11 - year solar dynamo cycle (PDF), Nicola Scafetta 03/2012, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar - Terrestrial Ph
solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter — Saturn tidal
frequencies plus the 11 - year
solar dynamo cycle (PDF), Nicola Scafetta 03/2012, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar - Terrestrial Ph
solar dynamo
cycle (PDF), Nicola Scafetta 03/2012, Journal of Atmospheric and
Solar - Terrestrial Ph
Solar - Terrestrial Physics
We see these pauses to some extent in every
solar cycle if you remove high -
frequency signals like El Nino.
The reason this works well on
solar cycles and El Ninos is that these tend to congregate around the low - order harmonics of that filter's 2.88 nHz (= 11 - year period) fundamental
frequency, which boxcar filters remove completely — it's the half - harmonics (1.5, 2.5,...) that get through.
Now I understand why you can't entertain the idea of a pair of around Hale
cycle frequencies being responsible for the
solar cycles.
The point, that there is no cause - effect relationship visible does not mean that movements in the
solar system, which
cycles can be found in the global
frequency spectra of temperature proxies are not relevant to science.
Black curve, a 1000 - year
frequency cycle representing
solar activity for that periodicity, whose amplitude reflects the relative power (colored bar) of that
frequency in a
solar activity reconstruction wavelet analysis.
Breitenmoser et al. (2012) analyzed the ~ 200 - year periodicity during the past two millennia using seventeen near worldwide distributed tree chronologies, and found significant periodicities in the 208 - year
frequency band, corresponding to the DeVries
cycle of
solar activity, indicating a
solar contribution in the temperature and precipitation series.
The Centennial
solar cycle appears as a peak of ~ 104 years in cosmogenic isotopes
frequency analysis, and as a decrease in maximum and minimum sunspot numbers at the beginning of each century since there have been telescopic sunspot observations.
Instead of assuming every peak in a
frequency analysis constitutes sufficient evidence for the existence of a
cycle, I only consider those where abundant evidence exists in the scientific literature that
solar cycles match the climate evidence precisely.
The three researchers discovered that flood
frequency in both records is significantly correlated to changes in two types of
solar activity,» namely, (1) «the
solar Schwabe
cycle» and (2) «multi-centennial oscillations.»
Applying
frequency analysis, the scientists could show characteristic
cycles in the monsoon history in the regions of study that follow the known 210 - year Suess / de Vries
solar cycle.
The IPCC AR4 states: «While the 11 - year
solar forcing
cycle is well documented, lower -
frequency variations in
solar forcing are highly uncertain.»
The central
cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year
solar dynamo
cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary
frequencies.