Dr. Pratt On decadal trending: During the last 100 years or so,
solar cycle period was on average 10.54 years, while theHale cycle is twice as long.
vukcevic December 5, 2012 at 5:57 am During the last 100 years or so,
solar cycle period was on average 10.54 years, while theHale cycle is twice as long.
It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and
solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.
Back in the 1880s, Wolf calculated
the solar cycle period to be 11.295 years based on the 10 cycles he had reconstructed.
Therefore, we assume that the existing proxies of the solar activity averaged over a two
solar cycles period can also describe the activity of the quiet Sun.
Not exact matches
Solar eclipses occur in what's called a Saros
cycle — a
period that lasts about 18 years, 11 days and eight hours, and is governed by the moon's orbit.
Like hurricanes in the Atlantic,
solar flares have a season: the two - to - three - year
period of the
solar cycle when the sun is most active.
THE SUN appears to have started its next
cycle of sunspots two years ahead of schedule, heralding a
period of
solar magnetic storms that could trigger radio interference and auroras in the night sky.
The interval before, during and after the Comet Siding Spring encounter with Mars was one of the most disturbed
periods of the current
solar cycle.
For most of the space age, the sun's activity ebbed and flowed like clockwork in 11 - year
cycles, with six - to eight - year lulls in activity, called
solar minimum, followed by two - to three - year
periods when the sun is more active.
Of course,
solar irradiance measurements from just three years of one solar cycle can not be applied to any other period than the one measured by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor on NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satel
solar irradiance measurements from just three years of one
solar cycle can not be applied to any other period than the one measured by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor on NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satel
solar cycle can not be applied to any other
period than the one measured by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor on NASA's
Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satel
Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite.
The Sun is currently heading towards a
period of minimum activity and an international team has used the full BiSON dataset to try to look for clues in previous
cycles as to what might be causing some unusual
solar activity observed lately.
They then infer a higher temperature sensitivity to changes in radiance over this
cycle and conclude that maybe 0.1 K temperature increase would be possible due to the variation in
solar radiance, or about 30 % (if you push it) of the total temperature anomaly over this
period.
Periods of volcanism can cool the climate (as with the 1991 Pinatubo eruption), methane emissions from increased biological activity can warm the climate, and slight changes in
solar output and orbital variations can all have climate effects which are much shorter in duration than the ice age
cycles, ranging from less than a decade to a thousand years in duration (the Younger Dryas).
It is found that the El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is driven not only by the seasonal heating, but also by three more external periodicities (incommensurate to the annual
period) associated with the ~ 18.6 - year lunar -
solar nutation of the Earth rotation axis, ~ 11 - year sunspot activity
cycle and the ~ 14 - month Chandler wobble in the Earth's pole motion.
«While the earlier estimate of ± 20 % [Schulz, 2002] is consistent with a
solar cycle (the 11 - year sunspot
cycle varies in
period by ± 14 %), a much higher precision would point more to an orbital
cycle.
Strangely, it occurred in conjunction with a spate of
solar activity during what is usually a quiet
period in the Sun's 11 - year sunspot and storm - activity
cycle.
So all else being equal, the
solar cycle contribution should completely negate a CO2 - induced temperature rise of 0.2 oC per decade, during the descending
period of the
solar cycle (2003 - 2009 for the current
cycle).
More common during the active
period of the
cycle known as the
solar maximum, CMEs have a stronger effect than the standard
solar wind.
I mean since there is no clear trend (upward or downward) in cosmic ray flux over the
period we've been able to measure them directly; and since we do not see a significant difference in climate over the 11 year
solar cycle between Solar Max and Solar Min (and this modulation is much larger than the one Svensmark is talking about); and since it is not clear how important the ionization from GCR is in cloud formation; and since the anthropogenic ghg mechanism does just fine reproducing the data, exactly how do you foresee implementing this «effect&ra
solar cycle between
Solar Max and Solar Min (and this modulation is much larger than the one Svensmark is talking about); and since it is not clear how important the ionization from GCR is in cloud formation; and since the anthropogenic ghg mechanism does just fine reproducing the data, exactly how do you foresee implementing this «effect&ra
Solar Max and
Solar Min (and this modulation is much larger than the one Svensmark is talking about); and since it is not clear how important the ionization from GCR is in cloud formation; and since the anthropogenic ghg mechanism does just fine reproducing the data, exactly how do you foresee implementing this «effect&ra
Solar Min (and this modulation is much larger than the one Svensmark is talking about); and since it is not clear how important the ionization from GCR is in cloud formation; and since the anthropogenic ghg mechanism does just fine reproducing the data, exactly how do you foresee implementing this «effect»?
The longer the
solar cycle the greater the cooling.The mid to late 1970s was a similar cooling
period.
A
period for which the SCL index is NOT «well defined», and an area many times larger than the Greenland Sea, behaving in a fashion for which we have no recent precedent according to literature — see, for instance the review article from Polyak et al, 2010 — «could» be natural since a possible relationship between sea ice and
solar cycle length has been demonstrated, sort of.
Some researchers have proposed that it is the
period of the meridional flow in the convective zone of the Sun that controls both the duration and strength of the
Solar cycle.
The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot
cycle swells toward the
solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more - dormant
period, with activity during the next 11 - year sunspot
cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.
The article by Damon and Laut (2004) also shows that when
solar cycle length is scaled up as much as it is in the above figure in order to match the 1940 - 1990 temperature record, that this implies a great mismatch for the earlier
periods in time.
The
solar - cloud connection is quite real (after two satellite measured sun
cycles), but can't explain the rather fast and huge changes in radiation balance over the previous
period.
The correlation between the two quantities is 0.85 with p < 0.01 for the whole
period studied.It could therefore be concluded that both the decreasing correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, and the deviation of the global temperature long - term trend from
solar activity as expressed by sunspot index are due to the increased number of high - speed streams of
solar wind on the declining phase and in the minimum of sunspot
cycle in the last decades.»
The following is a link to Bond's paper «Persistent
Solar influence on the North Atlantic Climate during the Holocene» Bond track 22
cycles through the Holocene interglacial and into the Wisconsin glacial
period.
You are confusing the 11 years sunspot (
solar irradiance)
cycle which does indeed have very small effect on temperature, with longer term sunspot (
solar irradiance)
cycles than can effect temperatures over
periods more like 50 years and up to approx. 0.5 degrees maximum.
I noticed that the change in cloud cover from the minimum to maximum of the
solar cycle was 2 percent, much less than the 10 % change in CO2, over the
period of their study.
For GHGs + aerosols, the low - to - mid latitudes in recent decades are too cold and the 1930 - 1940
period is even cooling further... If a model isn't able to reproduce reality (i.e. not validated), it is inapropriate to make any conclusions from the results... And the researchers clearly underplayed the
solar cycles in these matters.
During the
period 1950 - 2000, the average length of the
solar cycle is 10.7 yr (using either the sunspot numbers, or the TSI reconstruction of Lean 2000, GRL 27, 2425).
CO2 concentrations are meaningless — it's water in all it's phases reacting to variations in
solar irradiance brought on by various
solar cycles and orbital
cycles that controls climate —
PERIOD!
Within the
solar cycle,
solar storms such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are most numerous within a several - year
period known as the
solar maximum.
Solar physicists have been looking at trends in sun - spot behavior and characteristics over the past decade and have raised the possibility that when the current sun - spot
cycle peaks in the next few months, the sun could enter an unusually long
period where it generates few, if any sunspots.
El Chichon and the decline of
solar cycle 21 were Concomitant in this time
period in addition there was a sustained la nina 84-86/87 as it seems legitimate to invoke monsters and demons it is also legitimate to invoke the almighty
But their PNAS publication also referred to natural climate
cycles, superimposed on the trend line, like ENSO and
solar variability, both of which have been net contributors to global cooling over 1998 - 2008 [so climate skeptics can not — as they still do — point to either the Sun or El Niño to explain the world's temperature graph over that
period of time].
For forecasts of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based on the natural
solar activity
cycles — most importantly the millennial
cycle — and using the neutron count and 10Be record as the most useful proxy for
solar activity check my blogpost linked above, The most important factor in climate forecasting is where earth is in regard to the quasi - millennial natural
solar activity
cycle which has a
period in the 960 — 1020 year range.For evidence of this
cycle see Figs 5 - 9.
Periods of weak solar cycles are associated with periods of global c
Periods of weak
solar cycles are associated with
periods of global c
periods of global cooling.
It is still earlier than history suggests for the millennial
solar cycle to be going into reverse so the current
period of inactive sun may not be maintained for long but we know so little about the reasons for
solar variability that predictive ability is low.
The 23
cycles of warming and cooling correlate with
solar magnetic
cycle changes and have a
period of roughly 1500 years.
All you show is that
solar cycle mean wiggles can be cherry picked to match some T means [Loehle's T are also «integrals» of T], but only for a limited
period after 1200AD.
how can a Sun that has constant TSI (averaged over a
solar cycle) during 1950 - 2000 play any role in the global warming that was at its strongest over that
period
Certainly, but whether high or low, if the Sun is going to influence global warming then how can a Sun that has constant TSI (averaged over a
solar cycle) during 1950 - 2000 play any role in the global warming that was at its strongest over that
period?
You do the world a service in helping others to gain a good understanding of how the rest of the interplanetary harmonic interactions, that drive the decadal and longer
period cycles, and to extend the thinking to the similarly inter-modulated Inner planet,
solar, and moon harmonic
period.
The Ocean oscillation
period is both in a 2:3 with the Gleissberg
cycle and in a 3:2 with the inner
solar system return
period around 44.7 years.
Strength of the Earth's magnetosphere is directly proportional to the strength of the Earth's magnetic field at any time scale from days to months years,
solar cycles or Hale
cycles periods, centuries, millennia..
When
solar activity falls, energy comes out of the ocean, not just over the
period of the decline of a single 11 year
solar cycle, but if the Sun stays low in activity terms, for many years.
I agree that that does not duplicate my model because it does not deal with the millennial
solar cycle which induced the MWP, LIA and current warm
period.
Among others, they discovered a
period of 187 years, which coincides with the known Suess / de Vries
solar activity
cycle.