Krivova, N. A., Solanki, S. K., Fligge, A. & Unruh, Y. C. Reconstruction
of solar irradiance variations in cycle 23: is solar surface magnetism the cause?
Tying those factors together in order to estimate
solar irradiance variations in the past is crucial for attributing past climate changes, particularly in the pre-industrial.
We also demonstrate that SPM data can be employed to reconstruct total
solar irradiance variations with almost the same accuracy as recently shown for MDI data.
There is nothing in climate physics to suggest that the sensitivity of climate to
solar irradiance variation differs substantially from the sensitivity to infrared radiative forcing arising from greenhouse gas changes.
As examples of work in this category, I would mention Judith Lean's tireless efforts on relating luminosity to sunspot number, the work of Bard and colleagues on developing isotopic solar proxies like 10Be, Shindell's work on response to solar ultraviolet variability, and the work of Foukal et al on factors
governing solar irradiance variations.
Let's set the stage by noting that, as a significant competitor to anthropogenic greenhouse forcing of recent climate change, the direct radiative forcing
by solar irradiance variations is dead on arrival.
The «equilibrium» sensitivity of the global surface temperature to
solar irradiance variations, which is calculated simply by dividing the absolute temperature on the earth's surface (288K) by the solar constant (1365Wm - 2), is based on the assumption that the climate response is linear in the whole temperature band starting at the zero point.
Solar irradiance variations are sometimes assumed to be the most likely natural driver of climate change.
See e.g. our review paper (Schmidt et al, 2004), where the response of a climate model to estimated past changes in natural forcing due to
solar irradiance variations and explosive volcanic eruptions, is shown to match the spatial pattern of reconstructed temperature changes during the «Little Ice Age» (which includes enhanced cooling in certain regions such as Europe) as well as the smaller hemispheric - mean changes.
They claim that the evidence for Milankovitch forcing of the ice ages implies that the planet is hypersensitive to
solar irradiance variations.
Solar irradiance variations are sometimes assumed to be the most likely natural driver of climate change.
The model assumes that
solar irradiance variations are caused by surface magnetism and its single free parameter is kept at the same value for both cycles.
The amplitude of
the solar irradiance variation is smaller than the planetary energy
Thus, the basic magnitude of
the solar irradiance variations is given by the difference between the irradiance of the present quiet Sun (composed from a distribution of brightness components defined in Appendix A) and the irradiance from component A (see Eq.
A model of
solar irradiance variations is presented which is based on the assumption that solar surface magnetism is responsible for all total irradiance changes on time scales of days to years.
Due to the limited length of the time series of measured irradiance and inconsistencies between different measurements, models of
solar irradiance variation are particularly important.
This provides strong support for the hypothesis that
solar irradiance variations are caused by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux at the solar surface.