The phrase
"solar variations" refers to changes or fluctuations that occur in the sun's energy output.
Full definition
To understand the impacts
of solar variations on climate we need to know how much the solar inputs vary, and how the climate system responds to these changes.
Natural phenomena such
as solar variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward.
All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation
with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago.
While
known solar variations are less significant than the expected effects of enhanced greenhouse warming, they could either slow, for a time, or accelerate its eventual impact.
Even
if solar variations have had some modest effect on climate today, he adds, they would be more than offset by greenhouse - gas warming.
If the
suspected solar variations proved periodic, they might lead to long - range weather forecasts of great value for agriculture and water supply.
There are many mechanism conceivable
where solar variation could have far more impact then the simple watts per M sq calculation.
Our calculation supports the IPCC findings that the contribution
of solar variations to increased temperatures is not significant.
That assumption forces you to assume that any variation in ozone levels is not caused
by solar variations.
However,
for solar variations to explain climate change, there remains to be identified an additional solar heating mechanism beyond that already described.
A variety of natural factors influence global climate,
from solar variation to volcanoes, but anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions also change the nature of the planet.
Increasing the forcing effect of
solar variations in the computer model reduces the temperature discrepancies and the need to assign any significant effect to AGHG.
(2003), The Hadcm3 model probably underestimates the influence of
solar variations on climate with a factor 2.
Dr. Benestad states: «In their formula for the calculation of the sun - related temperature change, the long - term changes are determined by Zeq, while their «climate transfer sensitivity to slow
secular solar variations» (ZS4) is only used to correct for a time - lag.
-- Mechanisms exist which can turn
minor solar variations into large climate impacts on both regional and global scales.
The announcement by NASA that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had shifted to its cool phase is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and coincides with
recent solar variations.
However there are other first order drivers of climate including natural ones
like solar variation and human driven ones like land use change, aerosols and soot.
Only a vibrant economy will permit us all to adapt to climate changes that nature brings and about which we can do very little,
since solar variations, ocean currents, and volcanic eruptions are quite beyond our control.
They found mechanisms by
which solar variation can alter climate variability regionally, but none that would trigger global warming.
In order to calculate the terrestrial response to more
ephemeral solar variations, S&W introduce another type of «climate sensitivity» which they calculate separately for each of two components representing frequency ranges 7.3 - 14.7 and 14.7 - 29.3 year ranges respectively.
-- the influence of
solar variations IMHO is underestimated, as these are accompanied with a positive cloud feedback (and specific influences in the stratosphere).