Sovereign debt defaults are scary, but should they be?
But if there is any panic selling due to some event, such as
a sovereign debt default in the eurozone, that could be a time to jump in.
Between June and July 2015, it appeared that the divergences separating the Greek far - left Tsipras government and its EU and international interlocutors had the potential of leading to
a sovereign debt default.
Making matters worse, companies lacked access to capital markets due to the Argentina
sovereign debt default in 2001.
More generally, the European Union (EU) is perceived by many to be in crisis, buffeted by the twin threats of
sovereign debt default...
«When countries that had public finances in a comparable state to ours last May are still fighting off the terrible spectre of
sovereign debt default, it would be terrible folly to slow the pace of what is widely regarded as a necessary fiscal consolidation.
A sovereign debt default is never a pleasant experience, least of all if it is a country the size of United States.
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research recently published a study that indicated that «by all relevant debt indicators, the U.S. fiscal scenario will soon approximate the economic scenario for countries on the verge of
a sovereign debt default.»
External catalysts today could include war breaking out with North Korea, a nuclear device being detonated somewhere,
a sovereign debt default, a cyberattack on critical infrastructure in the United States, or something that threatens business and commerce.
If America ends up in
a sovereign debt default while trying to reflate, there are unexpected benefits.
Slashing of living standards, mass starvation, and acceleration of
sovereign debt default come immediately to mind.
* On an overall basis, the report states that while «global tail risks have diminished (meaning the risk of a systemic shock to the global financial system that could be caused by an event like
a sovereign debt default), the global outlook is slightly weaker than projected in October».
Not exact matches
What we don't know the state of credit
default swaps held by banks against
sovereign debt and against European banks, nor do we know the state of CDS held by British banks, nor are we certain of how certain the exposure of British banks is to the Ireland
sovereign debt problems.»
After Argentina
defaulted on its
sovereign debt in 2002, most investors accepted a settlement worth 30 cents on the dollar.
Based on the cost of insuring Venezuelan
sovereign debt, the markets are estimating an 80 percent chance of a
default within the next year.
China's one - year
sovereign bond yield has climbed 14 basis points since the devaluation, while the cost to insure the nation's
debt against
default jumped to a two - year high.
Partial
debt forgiveness has been a formal part of nearly every
sovereign default or
debt restructuring in modern history, although usually not until there has been a long and painful period of angry posturing and one or more partial restructurings.
For a third example, not everyone in the early 1960s believed that the USSR would inevitably overtake the US economically before the end of the century, but excluding fierce anti-Communists predicting fire and brimstone, I don't know anyone who expected that by the 1980s the USSR would essentially be insolvent (technically it wasn't, but LDC
debt traders nonetheless included the country in their universe of
defaulted or restructuring
sovereign borrowers).
Compared to most other countries»
sovereign debt, there is little risk of a U.S.
debt default.
TGR: Greece has come up with some creative ways to bring down its
sovereign debt without actually
defaulting.
«Before Brexit, there was Grexit and the European
sovereign debt crisis, Scotland's independence referendum, and the U.S. legislative gridlock over its
debt ceiling in 2011, which threatened to, out of whole cloth, create a
default in the global benchmark risk - free asset,» Zezas adds.
Before Brexit, there was Grexit and the European
sovereign debt crisis, Scotland's independence referendum, and the U.S. legislative gridlock over its
debt ceiling in 2011, which threatened to, out of whole cloth, create a
default in the global benchmark risk - free asset.
Since December 1, 2011 the European Parliament has banned naked Credit
default swap (CDS) on the
debt for
sovereign nations.
A rise in the global lending rate increases the cost of servicing
debt and magnifies the risk of
sovereign defaults in general.»
What may change the story are
sovereign defaults as government
debt levels get too high.
@Phil S: I was thinking about the US, UK, Australia, Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Japan and other developed countries that have never
defaulted on their
sovereign debt.
Second thing is that the craziness where nobody thought there was any risk, so that for example in 2007 you could buy credit
default swaps on Dubai
sovereign debt, the riskiest region in the world dependent on the most unstable commodity in the world, which is oil, for four basis points.
Interestingly, Navellier reports that historically markets have done phenomenally well in the month / week / day a major country (read: US)
defaulted on its
sovereign debt.
The global financial markets have paid some of the consequences of
defaulted sovereign debt.
1) U.S. Downgrade is basically a» Political Leader B #tch Slap» (one I think they deserve): Below is an excerpt from Standard & Poor's (S&P) most recent
Sovereign Default Study — the study most applicable for discussing US
debt obligations.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE
DEFAULT FREQUENCY or frequency variation around any sovereign debt rated above A. Thus, S&P's own study shows no default variation differential between A
DEFAULT FREQUENCY or frequency variation around any
sovereign debt rated above A. Thus, S&P's own study shows no
default variation differential between A
default variation differential between AAA & A.
% of world GDP, Andrew Langford, COR,
default, Emerald Isle, Europe, European
sovereign debt crisis, Event Driven, Fairfax, FBD Holdings, Greece, home bias investing, Ireland, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Prem Watsa, Price / Book, Return on Equity, taxes, Thatcher, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, UK, Wilbur Ross
austerity, Big Brother, budget deficit, citizenship,
Debt / GDP Ratio, default, Europe, European sovereign debt crisis, Greece, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, remittance economy, tragedy of the commons, US, vena
Debt / GDP Ratio,
default, Europe, European
sovereign debt crisis, Greece, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, remittance economy, tragedy of the commons, US, vena
debt crisis, Greece, Occupy Wall Street, politicians, remittance economy, tragedy of the commons, US, venality
Additionally, they may also purchase credit
default swaps on
sovereign debt throughout the Eurozone, as insurance against any possible
debt defaults.
Governments assess the risks involved in taking
sovereign debts since countries that
default on
sovereign debts will have difficulty obtaining loans in the future.
Although
sovereign debt will always involve
default risk, lending money to a national government in the country's own currency is referred to as a risk - free investment because with limits, the
debt can be repaid by the borrowing government by raising their taxes, reducing spending, or simply printing more money.
Additional risks include exposure to less developed or less efficient trading markets; social, political or economic instability; fluctuations in foreign currencies or currency redenomination; potential for
default on
sovereign debt; nationalization or expropriation of assets; settlement, custodial or other operational risks; and less stringent auditing and legal standards.
The issuer of the
sovereign debt or the authorities that control the repayment of the
debt may be unable or unwilling to repay principal or interest when due, and the Fund may have limited recourse in the event of a
default.
I would amend the statement about
sovereign defaults from «sensei» to cover only
sovereign issuers who issue
debt in their own currency.
Five years ago, several European countries (e.g., Portugal, Italy, Greece, etc.) appeared as if they might
default on their
sovereign debt obligations.
Regardless of the concerns, many are expecting that South Africa may be able to avoid receiving a fourth credit score downgrade at less than a calendar year due to a decline in the cost of insuring the nation's
sovereign debt against
default utilizing credit -
default swaps.