A key factor that could turn the tide for
sovereign debt yields is the Bank of Japan, which meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and may decide to stop buying longer - duration bonds, according to reports.
Authors Linda Goldberg and Deborah Leonard examine how the news contained in economic announcements — the unanticipated information that can move markets — influences
sovereign debt yields.
Businesses exposed to countries where
sovereign debt yields are rising will find it more expensive to refinance their credit.
The decision by the Reserve Bank of India, announced late on Friday, came close on the heels of weak investor interest in two recent auctions that led to a spike in
sovereign debt yields.
The decision by the Reserve Bank of India came close on the heels of weak investor interest in two recent auctions that led to a spike in
sovereign debt yields.
Not exact matches
Low
sovereign bond
yields have long helped the government finance its
debt, thus, higher
yields would undermine the sustainability of its fiscal position, analysts said.
That's also making Austrian bond
yields spike, ushering in a new phase of the
sovereign debt crisis from the East.
Until the wayward states knuckle under, the ECB will hide behind EU rules against monetizing
sovereign debt and let rising bond
yields keep the pressure on politicians.
Yields on U.S. government bonds are already some of the highest in the
sovereign debt markets and are attractive to non-U.S. buyers on an absolute and relative basis.
China's one - year
sovereign bond
yield has climbed 14 basis points since the devaluation, while the cost to insure the nation's
debt against default jumped to a two - year high.
I still think there will be a flight to safety in
sovereign bonds when stocks have a bear market but other areas such as high
yield and corporate
debt could run into some problems.
Global monetary policy remains broadly accommodative — and in some areas more and more so — propelling equity markets ever higher and leaving a record amount of
sovereign debt around the world (almost US$ 12 trillion by midyear)
yielding at or below zero (source: Fitch Ratings, as of 6/29/2016).
While I didn't have an explicit forecast on European
sovereign debt, I admit that I completely missed the possibility that by the end of 2015, 40 percent of the European
sovereign debt market would be trading at a negative
yield.
The cost of financing those
debts is rising fast, with the recent sell - off in Portuguese
sovereign bonds pushing
yields to levels not seen since October 2014.
And for much of the year the world has seen a new phenomenon: negative
yields on as much as $ 13 trillion in outstanding
debt (primarily
sovereign).
Greece is the rare
sovereign that issues
sovereign debt at a higher
yield than some Greek corporates.
(Between $ 11 trillion and $ 13 trillion worth of global
sovereign debt currently carries a negative
yield.)
Elsewhere, we favor selected eurozone peripheral
debt over other
sovereigns, due to higher
yields and European Central Bank (ECB) support.
Still, we've observed diminishing returns from the Fed's interventions, there is no political tolerance for the Fed to intervene in securities involving any credit risk that would be borne by U.S. citizens (purchasing European
sovereign debt, for example), and the
yield on the 10 - year Treasury bond is already down to 1.7 %, which is far below where it stood when prior interventions were initiated.
Yield spreads between emerging market
sovereign debt and US Treasuries have remained relatively low over the past three months in most markets (Graph 12).
Now that over $ 5 trillion of
sovereign debt (with credit risk rising, not falling) trades with a negative
yield, we can fairly overlook bonds as an investible asset class.
At least GREECE pays you a true risk
yield to purchase its
SOVEREIGN DEBT.
More than half of 2 - to 30 - year German
sovereign debt now
yields less than the deposit rate, according to Pictet analysts.
Those remarks sent 10 - year Canadian
yields higher by seven basis points, to 1.64 per cent, making them among the worst performers among developed - market
sovereign debt.
The cost of
debt to Asian borrowers, as measured by
sovereign bond
yields, has not risen much at all.
Somewhat hidden from view is the fact that the LTRO is also a program to capitalise the banks given that they pay around 1 % to the ECB and are buying
sovereign debt with a
yield of close to 5 %.
European private lenders accessed the ECB's cheap loans and used them to purchase Eurozone
sovereign debt drastically bringing down treasury
yields.
Looking both within and outside of the benchmark, the Fund seeks relative value opportunities across traditional investment - grade and high -
yield bond sectors, also including nontraditional asset classes like non-U.S.
sovereign and corporate
debt, convertibles, and floating - rate loans.
There are several that hold high -
yield bonds and emerging market
debt, but I'm thinking of something more conservative, such as a fund that invests in the
sovereign debt of developed countries.
Foreign money — institutions, pensions,
sovereign wealth funds, money managers, retail — will continue to grab the remaining A-rated
debt with a positive
yield.
Alternatively, many
yields on
sovereign debt have turned negative due to a concern over a lack of economic growth.
Naturally, she believes ETFs that hold high -
yield corporate bonds, emerging market
sovereign debt or dividend - paying stocks are all better choices for long - term investors.
Consider some figures based on our analysis: The whole universe of high
yield bonds is only around $ 2 trillion and the emerging market (EM)
sovereign debt universe measures around $ 6 trillion, while the world of negatively
yielding developed market government
debt measures roughly $ 13 trillion, according to our estimates of figures from multiple sources.
Under J.R.'s management, S&P Dow Jones Indices has launched a global suite of fixed income indices, which includes a focus on transparency for municipal, corporate, and high -
yield bonds, senior loans, and
sovereign debt.
Still, we've observed diminishing returns from the Fed's interventions, there is no political tolerance for the Fed to intervene in securities involving any credit risk that would be borne by U.S. citizens (purchasing European
sovereign debt, for example), and the
yield on the 10 - year Treasury bond is already down to 1.7 %, which is far below where it stood when prior interventions were initiated.
With a portfolio composed of investment - grade
debt from corporate,
sovereign and supranational issuers with three - year maximum maturities, the iShares 1 - 3 Year Credit Bond ETF (NYSEARCA: CSJ) aims to offer a higher distribution
yield than comparable all - Treasury funds, but it does have a marginally higher credit risk.
A broad ensemble of global income investments, the Fund seeks value opportunities across both traditional investment - grade and high -
yield bond sectors and nontraditional asset classes, including convertibles, preferred stocks, non-U.S.
sovereign and corporate
debt and floating - rate loans.
The amount of
sovereign debt with negative
yields has ballooned to more than ten trillion dollars in notional value, with central banks in Europe and Japan implementing explicit negative interest...
According to the Exploring Emerging Markets
Debt article in the Journal of Indexes, most of the emerging market USD
sovereign bond
yields are influenced by the changes in the U.S. Treasury curve more than the local emerging market factors.
These sectors are U.S. Treasurys, global treasurys ex-U.S., U.S. investment - grade corporate bonds, U.S. mortgage - backed securities, U.S. high -
yield corporate bonds and emerging market
sovereign debt.
The iShares Latin America exchange - traded fund (ILF) was down 1.9 % in recent trading, while the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) was down 1.6 %, while the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB), the Market Vectors Emerging Markets High
Yield Bond ETF (HYEM) and the PowerShares Emerging Markets
Sovereign Debt ETF (PCY) were flat.
She said there are more profitable ways than cash to mitigate portfolio risk, including dividend - paying stocks, exchange - traded funds, high -
yield corporate bonds and emerging market
sovereign debt ETFs.
Our research on the Fundamental Index ® concept, as applied to bonds, underscores the widely held view in the bond community that we should not choose to own more of any security just because there's more of it available to us.10 Figure 9 plots four different Fundamental Index portfolios (weighted on sales, profits, assets and dividends) in investment - grade bonds (green), high -
yield bonds (blue) and emerging markets
sovereign debt (yellow).11 Most of these have lower volatility and higher return than the cap - weighted benchmark (marked with a red dot).
We also advise clients on the full range of equity and
debt securities transactions, including eurobond offerings by corporations and
sovereigns, medium - term note programs, high -
yield debt offerings, convertible and exchangeable bond offerings, initial public offerings (IPOs), global depositary receipt (GDR) and American depositary receipt (ADR) programs, and offerings of Sukuk (Islamic bonds).