I had no complaint with the original Briffa articles — it was the IPCC
spaghetti graph with its false rhetorical effect that bothered me.
And I compare the referenced
spaghetti graph with the graph of Briffa 1998 from Proc Roy Soc London, reproduced by McIntyre on page 3 of his notes, I find myself wondering whether the data on which the 1999 graph is based have been made public, or not.
Not exact matches
This is designed as a second lesson on trig
graphs, building on the excellent
spaghetti lesson 7... this
with the previous lesson gives an excellent foundational understanding of trig
graphs, which makes all other lessons much easier.
BUT, it came sooner than stated and I especially like the
spaghetti graph on the cover
with the barbed wire and the major cracks in the underlain foundation.
The definitive timeline and sources of the draft versions of the TAR «
spaghetti graph», along
with a comparison
with the AR4 equivalent.
Not even a communal set of predictions [
spaghetti graph] for the 21st century where each proponent gets to plot a curve
with a different color.
Nor can a comparison between observations and AR4 projections be made «scientifically better» — let alone valid in accounting terms — by replacing actual AR4 documents and graphics
with a
spaghetti graph that did not appear in AR4.
If IPCC intended this range of projections to represent their uncertainty range, then that is what they should have shown in AR4 Figure 10.26 (which is more consistent
with the Technical Summary than the range in the
spaghetti graph.)
In my prior posts, I observed that Briffa et al 2001 had obtained a reconstruction
with a greater rhetorical resemblance to MBH in the pre-1550 period using principal components and, then and only then, did they include this in their
spaghetti graph.
I'll simply note that the McShane and Wyner millenial reconstruction has a pronounced hockey stick shape, albeit
with a higher Medieval Warm Period and wider error bars than the norm seen in various
spaghetti graphs (apparently attributable to the Bayesian «path» approach).
This
spaghetti graph comes from the IPCC working group 1 and illustrates twelve multi proxy reconstructions together
with their locations, including mbh1999, which has instrumental temperature data added from 1902.