In most
special elections turnout is low and nothing drives voters out like sending a message to DC or their party establishment.
Not exact matches
Republicans aren't taking the congressional seat for granted, given the typically low
turnout for
special elections.
And as we've seen in lower -
turnout elections through the entire 2010 cycle, both
special elections and primaries, national money can make a decisive difference: Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle may be the latest victims, but Scott Brown's win back in January had already shown the way.
Although
turnout was high, the 2012 national
election was
special, both in marking 10 years since independence and the country's first nationally run
election.
And despite her apparently inept campaign Coakley may yet pull off a victory, since like most
special elections tomorrow is likely to see a relatively low voter
turnout, giving the edge to a candidate able to persuade his or her supporters to actually show up and cast a ballot.
For politicians and campaign operatives across the state, that race was a close - to - home indicator of what could happen in a
special election, where
turnout is abysmally low and a gap in enthusiasm among voters could make all the difference when the votes are tallied.
On
turnout, as with a primary,
special elections tend to bring out a more involved subset of voters, clouding any apples - to - apples prediction for the next general
election.
Turnout is usually very low in even the hardest - fought
special elections, in part because voters simply don't expect polls to be open in April.
It's not particularly surprising to see that seniors made up a disproportionate share of the
turnout last year, as they historically represent a large share of the vote in low
turnout elections, such as primary and
special elections.
Turnout is typically very low in even the hardest - fought
special elections, in part because voters simply don't expect polling places to be open in April.
While that type of system seems preferable in theory, these types of
special elections have absurdly low
turnout.
In
special elections so far, Trump's unpopularity has fired up Democrats, turned independents off the GOP and depressed Republican
turnout.
But Democrats say that in a low -
turnout special election with progressives and union members galvanized by opposition to Trump, they had hope.
But voter
turnout in primaries, like the New York governor's race, is abysmally low, so the ideologues on the far left and far right — and the
special interests who throw money at the
elections — control the process.
Democrats say that in a low -
turnout special election with progressives and union members motivated by opposition to Trump, they have hope.
Because the primary is being held so early, it's more or less tantamount to a
special election, which means
turnout will be low and victory will likely go to whoever has the stronger GOTV operation.
And even though
special elections historically generate little enthusiasm, officials from both parties used words like dismal to describe the
turnout Tuesday.
Weprin may well come out ahead once the votes are counted: He'll be able to count on superior resources today to pull voters to the polls, which could be decisive in a low -
turnout special election.
Mr. Donovan's biggest challenge will not be winning the
special election (after all, Michael Grimm won convincingly in 2014 while under indictment); it will be winning re-
election in 2016, when former New York Sen. Hillary Clinton could top the ticket and drive
turnout in the district.
It might be a bit more difficult for the strategy to have the same impact this time around, as Killian's ties to Trump are more tangential than Astorino's, and the
special election will be held on a date with fewer extraneous factors that might influence
turnout.
But with low
turnout and multiple conservatives running in each primary, it would be a surprise if the disgraced former lawmakers advanced to the
special general
election in March.
Given the fact it's one of only three seats held by Democrats that the GOP has a realistic chance of picking up in the immediate future, they would almost certainly mount a vigorous campaign in a
special election that would likely be decided by atypical
turnout patterns.
Turnout is always a key, especially in
special elections, where no more than 15 percent of voters typically cast ballots.
Holding
elections on a
special bank holiday would reverse dwindling
turnout, a Labour MP has argued.
Historically polling in
special elections can be spotty because there is such a low
turnout in these races.
Yet eight months later, according to the February 13, 2017 New York Post article «Low voter
turnout expected for
special election to fill Harlem city council seat» it stated that «Construction and development executive Brian Benjamin, chairman of Community Board 10 and finance chair of the Manhattan Democratic Party, has expressed interest in running» for State Senate.
There is just one mechanical hitch in the hope of a primary
turnout fueling votes in the Senate
special election: The presidential primary and state Senate
special election will be on different ballots.
Low
turnout is expected in the
special election scheduled to be held tomorrow to fill the NYC Council seat vacated by now - Assemblywoman Inez Dickens.
He points to the paltry
turnout that typically marks
special elections and says Tuesday's was no different.
The low
turnout special election is expected to favor Mr. Donovan.
Given the fact that the June 26 primary is early, it could be viewed as a sort of hybrid
special election, which means it will have low
turnout and could turn on which candidate has the best GOTV operation.
We can expect higher than normal voter
turnout for the
special election given that presidential
elections tend to boost voter
turnout.
Michael Dawidziak, a veteran Long Island political consultant who works largely with Republicans, said the new progressive groups that helped Pellegrino mount and fund her campaign did an impressive job in a low -
turnout special election with party divisions on the Republican and Conservative side.
Her strategy called for cultivating the local Democratic leaders who could be relied on to turn out enough of the faithful to win a
special election, traditionally a low -
turnout affair.
«This is a
special election, so
turnout will be lower, which may help her, but it's still a tough race to win.
The outcome of US
special elections, particularly those taking place in states under a thick blanket of snow and battered by chilly breezes, is largely driven by
turnout — which rarely climbs above 25 %.
Sen. Annette Taddeo «s victory in a
special election for Miami - Dade County's Senate District 40... is being taken as a sign by Democrats that they can compete in a non-presidential
election year when Democratic
turnout has historically lagged.
* WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN GEORGIA: Nate Cohn notes that
turnout will be very unpredictable, as this is a
special election, but the early voting
turnout should boost Democrats» confidence more generally:
He was first elected in 2016 during a high -
turnout special election to replace legendary County Legislator Bernice Spreckman, where he took 65 % of the vote.
Ms. Richardson said she was excited about the endorsement, and said she would strive to increase awareness about the
special election, which likely to draw only low
turnout.
White House political Director Patrick Gaspard has been active in expressing concerns that in a low -
turnout special election, which is set for May 22, former Rep. Ed Case and state Senate president Colleen Hanabusa could split the Democratic vote enough to allow Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to win.
Turnout in the 37th State Senate
special election was 14 percent, according to unofficial results from the Orange County Registrar of Voters.
Mr. Donovan, a Staten Island resident in the Staten Island - based district, is expected to win the low
turnout special election; Brooklyn lawmakers have historically struggled to win the seat.
Turnout can be respectable in
special Senate
elections — in 2007, the last time there was on in Nassau, it was about a quarter — but it's difficult to imagine a scenario in which the decision over who gets to go to Albany inspires voters more than who gets to go to the Oval Office.
Democrats would like nothing better than to demonstrate that his success was a fluke resulting from a low -
turnout special election in the dead of winter.
Obama's message to voters — intended to specifically reach black voters whose
turnout is critical for Democratic candidate Jones — comes on the eve of a
special election that has drawn extraordinary national attention and divided the Republican Party over whether sexual allegations against Moore make him unfit for office.
The average
turnout for nonpartisan
special elections for city council seats since 2001 was 10.25 %, 57 % higher than for partisan
special elections for state legislative contests.
In
special elections or run - offs where turn out is traditionally lower, campaigns should use absentee voter outreach as a way to increase voter
turnout by providing an easy way for voters to vote.
As is typical in
special elections,
turnout was low.
The low
turnout special election, set for May 5, is likely to attract more conservative voters.