Rippey, the USDA meteorologist, did not choose to attribute this year's drought to the long - term climate change that scientists blame in part on human activity — the link between
specific extreme weather events and climate change remains the subject of research and debate — but he did say it's shaping up as the worst drought since at least 1988.
More importantly, the same study does find connections to
specific extreme weather events and man - made climate change.
It may never be possible to say that
any specific extreme weather event was caused by human - induced climate change alone, in the sense that, without climate change, that event would not have happened.
Also attribution of
specific extreme weather events to multi-decadal changes in climate has not yet been shown, and is likely not even possible.
The goal of the project was also to add information of the city -
specific extreme weather events and climate change impacts.
This, like
any specific extreme weather event, can not be conclusively linked to global warming (scientifically), but it is exactly what climatologists have been projecting and warning us about for years.
MSNBC was generally graded down by UCS because of a few mild overstatements linking
some specific extreme weather events and climate change; in other words for going the other way than the other networks.
The science of climate change «attribution» — linking
specific extreme weather events to the effects of global warming — is making substantial progress, so it is becoming increasingly possible for scientists to tie particular weather patterns to climate change.
Some climate scientists, however, are critical of that analysis, saying the correlation between global warming and
specific extreme weather events isn't great enough to warrant linking them.
To attribute
any specific extreme weather event — such as the downpours that caused flooding in Pakistan or Australia, for example — requires running such computer models thousands of times to detect any possible human impact amidst all the natural influences on a given day's weather.
Climatologist John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, emphasized that it was not scientifically defensible to tie the recent droughts or
specific extreme weather events to climate change, and highlighted the limitations of historical temperature records.
Carolyn Gramling writes about studies that, for the first time, blame
specific extreme weather events on human - caused climate change — certain to be a hot topic in 2018.
«In the past, many scientists have been cautious of attributing
specific extreme weather events to climate change.
The committee identified research priorities to further enhance the scientific community's ability to attribute
specific extreme weather events to climate change.
«Substantial proportions literally say that they believe global warming made
specific extreme weather events worse, such as Harvey and Irma and Maria, such as wildfires out West, such as the extreme heat wave that grounded planes in Phoenix.»
Not exact matches
To identify
extreme weather events, the researchers relied on county and calendar day
specific thresholds for precipitation and maximum temperature (90th and 95th percentile, respectively) that were calculated based on 30 years of baseline data (1960 - 1989).
«We don't trust climate models yet to predict
specific episodes of
extreme weather because the models are too coarse,» said study co-author Dim Coumou of PIK.
To meet this need, through addressing
specific barriers in scientific progress, the WCRP Grand Challenge promotes research on
weather and climate
extremes that require international partnership and coordination, and that yield «actionable information» for decision makers.
In
specific countries with
extreme weather,
specific dogs that will not do well in the climate will not be allowed to live there.
Smith did not say that both state and federal regulations, as well as the animal cruelty law, offer very
specific and stringent requirements to protect dogs from
extremes of
weather.
«For many years my work has cycled in and around the themes of nature at large and on a more
specific level, the
extremes of
weather.
Today's
extreme anomalies occur as a result of simultaneous contributions of
specific weather patterns and global warming.»
Certainly the locations of
extreme anomalies in any given case depend on
specific weather patterns.
As I read further, from the context, he appears to be referring to a
specific question about
extreme weather — yet his rhetoric seems to be aimed at implying a broader conclusion about the intellectual clarity, and motives, of the scientists he calls «alarmists.»
The paper considers the necessary components of a prospective event attribution system, reviews some
specific case studies made to date (Autumn 2000 UK floods, summer 2003 European heatwave, annual 2008 cool US temperatures, July 2010 Western Russia heatwave) and discusses the challenges involved in developing systems to provide regularly updated and reliable attribution assessments of unusual or
extreme weather and climate - related events.
However, simple statistical reasoning indicates that substantial changes in the frequency of
extreme events (and in the maximum feasible
extreme, e.g., the maximum possible 24 - hour rainfall at a
specific location) can result from a relatively small shift of the distribution of a
weather or climate variable.
It consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in
extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from
specific case studies.
They threw out one model because it couldn't do a good - enough job matching past
extreme weather patterns in this
specific area.
Extreme weather attribution is however an emerging and rapidly advancing science, and there is increasing capacity to estimate the change in magnitude and occurrence of
specific types of
extreme events in a warming world.
Hanley does a fantastic job of distinguishing between
weather and climate, and stressing that we can't yet attribute
extreme events to
specific causes while acknowledging that this summer's wild
weather fits with IPCC predictions and will become a lot more common in the future.
As for certain
specific expensive
extreme events (as opposed to generic
weather), I stand by my own conclusion as someone with some lingering expertise, that Moscow / Pakistan 2010, Texas 2011, Sandy 2012, and the ongoing decline of Arctic sea ice, are events with obvious physical / dynamical connections to our artificially altered climate.
Climate scientists and other experts at the time debated as to the causes, but the science remained unsettled as to why the
weather extremes had become so violent and frequent during that
specific decade.
But to fully understand what's actually happening to the climate — and whether
specific events are tied to global changes — we need better ways of analyzing
extreme weather events, he said.
Though the report still says, rightly, that any
specific weather event can not be solely tied to climate change — be it the totally unseasonable snowfall that hit the Northeast this past weekend, the devastating flooding in Thailand, etc. — but that scientists now are 99 % certain that climate change will cause more
extreme heat waves, fewer
extreme spells of cold
weather, and more intense downpours.
If «global warming» is such a big problem, and
extreme weather events are becoming more common and more intense, we should expect deaths from such events, both in absolute and
specific terms, to be increasing.
Litigation will probably focus on
specific episodes of
extreme weather, and causation is likely to be uncertain.
Trusted Choice ® independent insurance agents can address these issues and more as
extreme weather bears down on much of the country and can also offer disaster -
specific readiness and recovery tips for consumers.
The homes save on labor costs because builders can buy products in bulk rather than for
specific projects and can avoid
extreme weather that can delay construction, Sema says.