Abstract Under current climate trends,
spring ice breakup in Hudson Bay is advancing rapidly, leaving polar bears (Ursus maritimus) less time to hunt seals during the spring when they accumulate the majority of their annual fat reserves.
Since IPCC (2001) the cryosphere has undergone significant changes, such as the substantial retreat of arctic sea
ice, especially in summer; the continued shrinking of mountain glaciers; the decrease in the extent of snow cover and seasonally frozen ground, particularly in
spring; the earlier
breakup of river and lake
ice; and widespread thinning of antarctic
ice shelves along the Amundsen Sea coast, indicating increased basal melting due to increased ocean heat fluxes in the cavities below the
ice shelves.
I taught a climate statistics class at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences in 2011 (I think) during
spring semester and as a class team exercise we «forecast» the Nenana
ice breakup date.