Sentences with phrase «spring ice conditions»

As with previous CIS contributions, the 2016 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness / extent, as well as winter surface air temperature, spring ice conditions and the summer temperature forecast; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent time - series into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.

Therefore, a model run driven with atmospheric data from 2007, which is started from spring ice conditions in 2008 instead of 2007, leads to an even smaller ice extent.

This ice will likely affect both winter and spring ice conditions in the coming year.

Tagged adaptation, AMO, Amstrup, Barents Sea, dens, Franz Josef Land, Kara Sea, Mauritzen, polar bear, polar bear resilience, pregnant females, satellite radio collars, spring ice conditions, Svalbard, WWF

Not exact matches

If we compare the ice thickness map of the previous winter with that of 2012, we can see that the current ice conditions are similar to those of the spring of 2012 — in some places, the ice is even thinner,» Dr Marcel Nicolaus, sea ice physicist at AWI, said today at a press conference during the EGU General Assembly in Vienna.

But before you read on, have a quick look at this short time - lapse video of sea ice and weather conditions in the central Arctic Ocean from early July through August 8, recorded by one of the two autonomous cameras set on the sea ice near the North Pole each spring by a research team from the University of Washington (the same folks I accompanied in 2003).

In an experimental cross-check, more than a dozen teams of polar ice experts tried issuing experimental forecasts of the sea ice as conditions evolved through the spring and summer.

For several years, Rhett Herman, a physics professor at Radford University, has been leading students on an expedition each spring break to study the condition of the sea ice off the coast near Barrow, Alaska.

The animated sea - ice imagery above — from one of two autonomous cameras set on ice near the North Pole each spring — gives a close - focus view of the slushy conditions that develop on the shifting ice when the summer sun is at its peak.

Several specialists studying Arctic sea ice told me that there's a good chance that, if current conditions persist, the ice this spring could be in better shape than it has been over the last few years.

As expected from my 2002 paper, the low A.O. conditions of late have sequestered quite a bit of sea ice the Arctic, which should foster a more moderate retreat of sea ice extent this coming spring, summer and fall.

Despite what has appeared to be a big early dip in the extent of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean this spring, a suite of forecasts issued today by the leading teams studying shifting conditions around the North Pole mostly do not (quite) see a repeat of the extraordinary ice pullback in 2007.

Regarding conditions for spring 2012, Figure 4 shows maps of ice categories derived from sea - ice age for the beginning of May 2012, with maps for early May and mid-September 2011 included for comparison.

This month's report includes details on the causes of the 2012 minimum, the use of sea ice volume versus extent, sea ice in climate models, and late spring 2013 conditions.

Gudmansen et al. provided a detailed description of the fall to spring evolution of ice conditions in the Nares Strait region.

Based on a review of spring air temperatures, the winter evolution of the ice bridge and current ice conditions, Gudmansen predicts that the ice bridge will break down during the second half of June.

If the ice - out date is a couple of weeks earlier in the spring, and the complementary ice - in conditions is a couple of weeks later in the fall, one can understand that winter is becoming warmer and believe that warm weather animals are taking advantage of this and expanding their ecological range.

Gerland et al. provided a detailed description of ice conditions in April / May 2013 including spring field observations near Svalbard.

Tagged annual summer minimum, arctic sea ice, Beaufort Sea, body condition, Cherry, Chukchi, declining sea ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy sea ice, Hudson Bay, ice - free Arctic, litter size, loss of summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer ice minimum, summer sea ice, thick spring ice

One aspect of the recently published study on Chukchi Sea polar bears (Rode et al. 2014 [now in print] 2013; see here and here) has not been stressed enough: their finding that the differences in overall condition between bears in the Chukchi and Southern Beaufort Seas came down to disparities in spring feeding opportunities and therefore, the condition of spring sea ice.

This emphasizes the fact that the primary problem faced by Southern Beaufort sea polar bears is not scarce summer ice but by thick sea ice conditions in the spring.

In spring, however, cloudy conditions begin to dominate, causing temperatures to warm on average and move the ice closer to its melting temperature, even before the newly risen Sun is strong enough to matter.

Lukovich et al. (Centre for Earth Observation Science, U. of Manitoba); 4.6; Heuristic - Dynamics Investigation of dynamical atmospheric contributions in spring to sea ice conditions in fall, based on comparison of 2011 and 2007 stratospheric and surface winds and sea level pressure (SLP) in April and May suggests regional differences in sea ice extent in fall, in a manner consistent with recent studies highlighting the importance of coastal geometry in seasonal interpretations of sea ice cover (Eisenman, 2010).

Sea - ice age estimates in spring, showing conditions during the last week of April in 2009 (upper image) and 2010 (lower image).

Regarding initial conditions for Spring 2010, Figure 2 by Maslanik and others shows maps of sea ice classes derived from sea ice age for April 2010 and 2009.

Pre-season and summer sea ice conditions as well as the spring and summer atmospheric circulation are reviewed in the pan-arctic post-season report.

As discussed in the section below on late spring 2011 conditions, May 2011 looked similar in many respects to May 2010 and supports an early sea ice loss.

Including open - water phytoplankton biomarkers as well as micropaleontological data, we demonstrate (1) that a permanent sea ice cover existed during MIS 6 and (2) that during the LIG sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean during the spring / summer season even under (global) boundary conditions significantly warmer than the present.

Similar sea ice trends and weather conditions were present during the spring seasons preceding past ice shelf retreats (e.g., 2001 to 2002).

They wrote that Dyck, Soon and their collaborators ignored data from the previous decade that showed that as the climate warmed, the sea ice is melting earlier each spring, sending polar bears ashore for longer periods of time in progressively poorer condition.

The coupling of IP25 with phytoplankton biomarkers such as brassicasterol or dinosterol proves to be a viable approach to determine (spring / summer) sea ice conditions as is demonstrated by the good alignment of the PIP25 - based estimate of the recent sea ice coverage with satellite observations38.

September 2008 sea ice extent was driven by preexisting conditions at the end of spring, as well as variable wind patterns over the summer.

Because of the importance of initial conditions for the sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and summer ice concentrations and ice conditions, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed.

In years such as 2008, initial sea ice conditions at the end of spring may have more of an influence on a September arctic sea ice extent Outlook than a forecast of summer wind fields, which dominated the ice situation in 2007.

The Outlook also underscored important lessons for improvements in future efforts, including: a need for additional work on remote sensing of spring and summer sea ice conditions; sea ice thickness data; and more formal forecasting and evaluation methods.

As noted last month, this range depends in part on the relative weight that the respondents give to «initial conditions,» e.g., age and thickness of sea ice at the end of spring, versus whether summer winds in 2008 will be as supportive for ice loss as the favorable winds were in 2007.

A key question to be addressed was: How important were initial conditions of the sea ice at the end of spring versus anomalous summer meteorological forcing in driving the second sequential major September sea ice minimum?

When the ice conditions in spring are used as an indicator of what may happen several months later in September, there is a need to significantly raise the error bar considering the significant variability of weather and climate.

Because of the importance of initial conditions for the sea ice state, more work is needed on remote sensing retrieval and interpretation of spring and summer ice concentrations and ice condition, even if the present operational algorithms are not changed.

September 2009 sea ice extent was driven by preexisting sea ice conditions at the end of spring, as well as variable wind patterns over the course of summer.

Therefore, due to entirely natural variations in spring snow conditions over sea ice (and thickness of the ice), 2 polar bear population sizes can vary by region.

The second method uses a optimal filtering based statistical model, and the third estimate is based on regression models relating September sea ice extent to spring atmospheric and oceanic conditions.

Based on the understanding of both the physical processes that control key climate feedbacks (see Section 8.6.3), and also the origin of inter-model differences in the simulation of feedbacks (see Section 8.6.2), the following climate characteristics appear to be particularly important: (i) for the water vapour and lapse rate feedbacks, the response of upper - tropospheric RH and lapse rate to interannual or decadal changes in climate; (ii) for cloud feedbacks, the response of boundary - layer clouds and anvil clouds to a change in surface or atmospheric conditions and the change in cloud radiative properties associated with a change in extratropical synoptic weather systems; (iii) for snow albedo feedbacks, the relationship between surface air temperature and snow melt over northern land areas during spring and (iv) for sea ice feedbacks, the simulation of sea ice thickness.

As late April is the peak of this critical spring feeding period for most polar bear populations, this is when sea ice conditions are also critical.