The median is nearly the same value as from the June 2011 outlook, 0.2 million
square kilometers below the 2010 July Outlook value, and 0.3 million
square kilometers below the 2009 July Outlook value.
According to NSIDC, July 2011 set a new record low during the satellite data record for the month, ending up 210,000
square kilometers below the previous record low set in July 2007 (Figure 2).
And that pattern was shattered, with a 2010 minimum 436 thousand
square kilometers below 2009.
Today the Arctic sea ice anomaly is some 742,000
square kilometers below the satellite mean.
Anomolous global sea ice area would seem to be over a million
square kilometers below the 1979 - 2000 mean... hmmm and continuing lack of sunspots should mean lower global temperatures... hmmm
At the beginning of June, Arctic sea ice extent was about 400,000
square kilometers below the 1981 - 2010 average and slightly below the 2012 and 2013 extent on June 1 (Figure 3).
Our model predicts that September 2014 Arctic sea ice extent will be 1.45 million
square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 observed average extent, but will not reach values as low as those observed in 2007 or 2012.
The sea ice monthly extent for September 2012 was 3.6 million square kilometers, based on National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) estimates, a full 1.0 million
square kilometers below the 2011 value (Figure 1).
This was the second lowest extent behind 2007 (at 4.3 million square kilometers) and was 2.4 million
square kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average.
This was the second lowest extent behind 2007 and 2.4 million
square kilometers below the 1979 to 2000 average.
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the monthly average June 2010 ice extent was 10.87 million square kilometers, 1.29 million
square kilometers below climatology (1979 - 2000) and 190,000
square kilometers below the previous record low for the month of 11.06 million square kilometers set in 2006.
For the month of November, the Arctic sea ice extent averaged 9.08 million square kilometers, which is 1.95 million
square kilometers below the recorded 1981 to 2010 long - term average for the said month.
This is 1.03 million
square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 average for the month and 890,000 square kilometers (344,000 square miles) above the record low for August set in 2012.
Not exact matches
In a better world, it would be the big news of the year just to report that Arctic sea ice shrank to 4.14 million
square kilometers this summer, well
below the 1981 — 2010 average of 6.22 million
square kilometers (SN Online: 9/19/16).
The minimum amount of ice cover each summer had fluctuated above and
below six million
square kilometers from 1979 through 2000.
In Antarctica, this year's record low annual sea ice minimum of 815,000
square miles (2.11 million
square kilometers) was 71,000
square miles (184,000
square kilometers)
below the previous lowest minimum extent in the satellite record, which occurred in 1997.
This year's maximum extent, reached on March 7 at 5.57 million
square miles (14.42 million
square kilometers), is 37,000
square miles (97,00
square kilometers)
below the previous record low, which occurred in 2015, and 471,000
square miles (1.22 million
square kilometers) smaller than the average maximum extent for 1981 - 2010.
Arctic sea ice extent was
below normal for the 11th consecutive April this year, covering an average of 5.7 million
square miles (14.7 million
square kilometers) 2.1 percent
below the 1979 - 2000 average extent and the 15th smallest April extent since records began in 1979.
Key statements from the individual Outlook contributions are
below, summarized here by first author, Outlook value (in million
square kilometers, rounded to tenths), error estimate (if provided), method, and abstracted statement.
litesong wrote: The 2017 Arctic sea ice is increasing its chances that its sea ice maximum will remain
below 14 million
square kilometers, becoming the third year IN A ROW to remain under the mark, as NO OTHER YEAR BEFORE 2015 HAS EVER DONE IN THE SATELLITE RECORD.
On September 4, it fell
below 4.00 million
square kilometers (1.54 million
square miles), another first in the 33 - year satellite record.
In the summer of 2012, Arctic sea ice has broken the previous record for minimum extent (set in 2007), fallen
below 4 million
square kilometers, and, as of September 17, dropped
below 3.5 million
square kilometers in extent.
All of the estimates remain significantly
below the 1979 - 2007 average of 6.7 million
square kilometers, and six estimates indicate a new record minimum.
This is
below the 2009 minimum of 5.4 million
square kilometers and just slightly above the 2008 minimum of 4.7 million
square kilometers.
The average estimate is 4.8 + / - 0.62 million
square kilometers (excluding the estimate of 1 million
square kilometers),
below the 2009 minimum of 5.4 million
square kilometers and just slightly above the 2008 minimum of 4.7 million
square kilometers.
This could imply that in the present warmer climate conditions, September ice extents
below 5 million
square kilometers have become the new norm.
The range of values is 4.0 to 5.6 million
square kilometers, but the distribution is skewed toward lower values, suggesting either persistent conditions or a substantial drop
below 2008 and 2010 values and the long - term downward trend.
It should be noted that all estimates are well
below the 1979 - 2007 climatological mean value of 6.7 million
square kilometers.
53 % of the Outlook contributions suggest the September minimum will remain
below 5 million
square kilometers, representing a continued trend of declining sea ice extent.
This may imply that in the present warmer climate conditions, September ice extents
below 5 million
square kilometers will become the norm.
The distribution of the June Outlooks is skewed toward lower values, with a range of 4.0 to 5.6 million
square kilometers, suggesting either persistent conditions or a substantial drop
below 2008 and 2010 values and the long - term downward trend.
Nine respondents (excluding the 1.0 million
square kilometers prediction) estimate a September minimum
below 5 million
square kilometers, ranging from 4.0 to 4.9 million
square kilometers, while six respondents suggest a minimum between 5.2 and 5.7 million
square kilometers.
It is important to note for context that all 2011 estimates are well
below the 1979 — 2007 September climatological mean of 6.7 million
square kilometers.
The range of June Outlook estimates is 4.2 to 5.7 million
square kilometers, with an additional estimate of 1.0 million
square kilometers (Figure 1,
below).
Sea ice extent for September 2007 was 4.3 million
square kilometers — a reduction of more than 40 % from the 1980s and a rapid decline to more than 20 %
below the previous record minimum.
As of 13 August, «Sea ice extent is currently tracking at 5.4 million
square kilometers (2.1 million
square miles), with daily extents running at 940,000
square kilometers (361,000
square miles)
below previous daily record lows, a significant decline from past years.»
In the spring 2008 it looked like another minimum extent record with very high retreat rates and our first prediction in May (3.66 million
square kilometers) and second in June (3.41 million
square kilometers) were
below the 2007minimum.
Key statements from the individual Outlook contributions are
below, summarized here by first author, Outlook value (in million
square kilometers, rounded to tenths), error estimate (if provided and rounded to tenths), method, and abstracted statement.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA announced in mid-September that the extent of Arctic sea ice had dropped to 3.41 million
square kilometers (1.32 million
square miles)-- well
below the previous record of 4.17 million
square kilometers (1.61 million
square miles) set in 2007.
It should be noted that this 2009 extent would still be well
below the average for 1979 — 2000 of 6.7 million
square kilometers.
That's 97,00
square kilometers (37,000
square miles)
below the previous record low that occurred in 2015.
Though the formation of the 700
square -
kilometer iceberg could be a purely natural event — the result of a floating ice tongue growing too long and losing its balance on the sea — some scientists suspect that changes in Pine Island Glacier are due to changing conditions
below.
The rate of ice loss during July 2016 was slightly
below average at 83,800
square kilometers (32,400
square miles) per day.
The 2011 low is 2.38 million
square kilometers (919,000
square miles)
below the average minimum extent measured between 1979 and 2000.
Again, it is important to note for context that the estimates are well
below the 1979 — 2007 September mean of 6.7 million
square kilometers.
This month the median pan-Arctic extent Outlook for September 2016 sea ice extent is 4.4 million
square kilometers (km2) with quartiles of 4.2 and 4.7 million km2, which is slightly higher than July's value (4.3 million km2)(See Figure 1 in the full report,
below).
The median Outlook value for September 2015 sea ice extent is 5.0 million
square kilometers with quartiles of 4.4 and 5.2 million
square kilometers (See Figure 1 in the full report,
below).
Researchers found jagged, glassy rock fragments spread out over a 10
square kilometer (4
square mile) area around a series of small volcanic craters about 4,000 meters (2.5 miles)
below the sea surface.
Two contributors forecast a September minimum
below that of 2007 at 4.0 million
square kilometers and 3 contributors suggest a return to the long term downward linear trend for September sea ice loss (5.5 to 5.6 million
square kilometers).
To put this estimate in context, this is
below the 2009 minimum of 5.4 million
square kilometers and represents a continuation of the long - term loss of summer arctic sea ice.