Stabilising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere at any given level, already at 393 parts per million and rising at an average 2.3 ppm per year, requires annual emission be reduced more than 80 per cent below current levels eventually.
Now explain to me a policy, a set of policies, that can achieve the 50 % aim of the emergers while
stabilising CO2.
The issue of
stabilising CO2 is paramount - and not being biassed about the technologies of how we get there is an essential thing to grasp.
John Houghton, chairman of the IPCC's science working group, lends his personal support to the idea of
stabilising CO2 in the atmosphere at twice preindustrial values, or around 1.2 trillion tonnes, by the end of the next century.
This means that even if global emissions were cut by 60 per cent now, which is what it would take to
stabilise CO2 levels, we would still hit 1.6 °C of warming.
As a side note, there would be part of me that would be slightly disappointed were we to succesfully
stabilise CO2 concentrations at ~ 400ppm.
Sir Stern speaks of having to spend 1 - 2 % of global GDP in the near term in order to
stabilise CO2 levels at whichever point he chose.
To put this in context, the latest assessments suggest society needs to reduce carbon emissions by 3.5 Gt CO2 / yr to
stabilise CO2 levels in the atmosphere at 550 ppm.
This is echoed by movements like 350.org who tell us we need to
stabilise CO2 levels at 350 parts per million.
If we were to
stabilise CO2 levels at around 400 ppm, we'd expect over the long - term a further warming of 2 to 3 °C, which is significantly greater than the warming predicted by climate models.
Not exact matches
The IPCC has mapped out possible futures in which
CO2 levels would be
stabilised at anything from current levels to 1.6 trillion tonnes, to be reached at various times over the next 200 years.
The full effects on the global climate will come later, and even if the amount of
CO2 in the atmosphere
stabilises at double today's levels the International Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) estimates that by end of the 21st century the global temperature will have increased by between 1.5 °C and 4.5 °C.
In the long run, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be
stabilised at a level well below 450 ppm (parts per million; measured in
CO2 - equivalent concentration).
Attempting to
stabilise atmospheric
CO2 as soon as possible is therefore rational and prudent, especially since mucyh of what one would do to achieve that also carries with it other tangible public benefits that a business as usual scenario would forfeit.
Now that ozone depletion is likely to
stabilise, the changes in the future will also likely be dominated by the
CO2 (and possibly stratospheric H2O) changes.
The specious reasoning apart the claim is also spurious because as a matter of practice the current debate is less about «restricting» atmospheric
CO2 — as has been noted many times here, even an aggressive program that cuts * growth * in emissions will take some time to
stabilise atmospheric
CO2.
Thus, the concept of an emissions budget is very useful to get the message across that the amount of
CO2 that we can still emit in total (not per year) is limited if we want to
stabilise global temperature at a given level, so any delay in reducing emissions can be detrimental — especially if we cross tipping points in the climate system, e.g trigger the complete loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Indeed, it's almost certain we will exceed 450ppmv before we
stabilise global concentrations of atmospheric
CO2 and it's virtually certain that this continuing upward trend will be reflected in serious costs to the human comnunities who encounter it.
That will make it more difficult to
stabilise carbon dioxide (
CO2) levels in the atmosphere and to reduce the risks of extreme forms of global warming.
20.5.4 If
CO2 concentration could be
stabilised at its current value of 390 ppm, then Charney estimates temperature increase already in the pipe - line as 0.8 ºC.
«Much stronger policy action is needed everywhere to curb,
stabilise and reduce man - made
CO2 emissions in the foreseeable future.
United Nations negotiators struggle to get a global agreement for reducing the world's
CO2 emissions, which would
stabilise atmospheric
CO2 level and keep the temperature rise below 2 °C.
The New Policy Scenario trends are in line with
stabilising the concentration of greenhouse gases at over 650 parts per million (ppm) of
CO2 - equivalent (eq), resulting in a likely temperature rise of more than 3.5 °C in the long term.
In order to have a reasonable chance of achieving the goal, the concentration of greenhouse gases would probably need to be
stabilised at a level no higher than 450 ppm
CO2 - eq.
RCP4.5 is a «stabilisation scenario» where policies are put in place so atmospheric
CO2 concentration levels off around the middle of the century, though temperatures do not
stabilise before 2100.
Tim Lambert links to this article by Eric Pooley in Slate's The Big Moneye which points out that, for all the disagreement among economists regarding the details of climate change policy, there is substantial consensus on the following main points (i) the cost of action to
stabilise atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases will be of the order of 1 per cent of GDP (ii) a strong mitigation policy is preferable to business as usual
Correct the physics mistakes and there is virtually zero
CO2 - AGW and the aerosol effect has
stabilised hence no more warming.
Discussion so far has focused on
stabilising global
CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm by 2050.
Doug: there is no
CO2 effect because it's the working fluid of the control system that
stabilises lower atmosphere temperature.
Where also is the proof that
CO2 does not
stabilise at precisely the same level regardless of man's activities as it is a production and use system which is and always has been self balancing in the longer term?
Edmonds, J. and M.A. Wise, 1999: Exploring a technology strategy for
stabilising atmospheric
CO2.
So you would start with a condition, then you add in more
CO2 and let the temperature
stabilise.
The huge scientific uncertainty about the cost of inaction has obscured a surprisingly strong economic consensus about the economic cost of
stabilising global
CO2 concentrations at the levels currently being debated by national governments, that is, in the range 450 - 550 ppm.
It is the «peaking year» for
CO2 emissions in one of several categories of scenarios, where
CO2 is
stabilised at various concentrations or less, thereby
stabilising average global temperature at an amount above the «preindustrial average».
If the sun stays quiet we should soon see the level of atmospheric
CO2 stabilise and then begin a slow decline but since there is a long term lag of some 800 years shown in the historical record between temperature and
CO2 amounts we may still be seeing
CO2 consequences from the Mediaeval Warm Period which could skew the figures away from those expected from current solar variations.
Correct the physics mistakes and there is virtually zero
CO2 - AGW; the aerosol effect has
stabilised hence no more warming.
«the cost of action to
stabilise atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 and other greenhouse gases will be of the order of 1 per cent of GDP»
However the planet is still hot, the oceans are hot, and the atmospheric
CO2 concentration has not
stabilised.
at RealClimate), with a 2 % to 20 % chance of a temperature increase of 5 degrees centigrade (Meinhausen 2006, cited in the Stern Review, page 9) if global greenhouse - gas concentrations were
stabilised at the equivalent of 430ppm
CO2.
«On our current path, we will find it extremely difficult to rein in carbon emissions enough to
stabilise the atmospheric
CO2 concentration at 450 parts per million and even 550 ppm will be a challenge,» says Josep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project.
[62][63][64] The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced
CO2 concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of
CO2 have since been important in providing
stabilising feedbacks.
Note that the AOGCM experiments consider stabilisation of
CO2 concentrations only, and do not take into account changes in other gases, effectively assuming that concentrations of other gases are
stabilised immediately.
Although only
CO2 stabilisation is explicitly considered here, it is important to note that the other gases also eventually
stabilise in these illustrations.
CO2 is increasing faster, but CH4 has
stabilised, and CFCs are falling faster, aerosol changes are potentially important but not very well characterised.
Even the maximum
CO2 concentration to
stabilise at is not an ideal metric.
This coupled with increased use of renewable energy will achieve at least a
stabilising of the
CO2 level to what we hope is a «safe» level.
The Golden Rules Case puts
CO2 emissions on a long - term trajectory consistent with
stabilising the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse - gas emissions at around 650 parts per million, a trajectory consistent with a probable temperature rise of more than 3.5 degrees Celsius (°C) in the long term, well above the widely accepted 2 °C target.