The science is clear: Global warming and climate disruption will continue to accelerate until
we stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
As we have seen above, to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations at levels that will avoid dangerous climate change the entire world will need to peak its emissions in the next few years followed by emissions reductions at hard to imagine rates over the next 30 years.
Given the growing urgency of the need to rapidly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and the hard - to - imagine magnitude of global emissions reductions needed to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations at reasonably safe levels, the failure of many engaged in climate change controversies to see the practical significance of understanding climate change as an ethical problem must be seen as a huge human tragedy.
In the following chart the colored lines represent emissions reduction pathways that would
stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalents at various levels.
Given how much effort will be required to merely
stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 alone at 1,000 ppm (discussed below), I think it is very safe to say that total business - as - usual warming is at least 6.3 °C and that 5.5 °C is conservative.
The science is clear: Global warming and climate disruption will continue to accelerate until
we stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
But this also means that targets such as
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 450 parts per million (nearly double preindustrial levels) to avoid more than a 3.6 degree F (2 degree C) temperature rise are nearly impossible as well.
Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations requires emissions to fall to the net removal rate.
Of course, if you're serious about
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, achieving the American goal in 2020 is just step one in what would have to be a centurylong 12 - step (or more) program to completely decouple global energy use from processes that generate heat - trapping emissions.
Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions will require a reduction in global emissions of at least 80 % below 1990 levels by 2050.
But this requirement does nothing to
stabilize the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases.
In the figure, the IPCC (2007) forecast of 2 °C to 3 °C warming by 2100 is based on
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 around 550 ppm (a doubling from pre-industrial levels of 280), up from 385 today.
Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will require a radical transformation of the global energy system over coming decades.
Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at levels that will avoid dangerous climate change requires immediate action.
It will take decades or longer to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to zero — the only way to
stabilize its atmospheric concentration.
Nor are the commitments that have been made even remotely consistent with
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at anywhere close to 2 degrees Celsius, much less 1.5.
Speaking of unfinished business, towards the end of last month I posted a couple of comments refuting raypierre's contention that to
stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide at 450 ppm, emissions must drop to near zero.
Not exact matches
«
Stabilizing or reducing
atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations, therefore, requires very deep reductions in future emissions to compensate for past emissions that are still circulating in the Earth system,» the draft report says.
Stable
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to continued warming, but if carbon dioxide emissions could be eliminated entirely, temperatures would quickly
stabilize or even decrease over time.
The letter notes that «Stable
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to continued warming, but if carbon dioxide emissions could be eliminated entirely, temperatures would quickly
stabilize or even decrease over time.
While there are possibilities of storage in wells and deep in the ocean,
stabilizing the
atmospheric CO2
concentration would require gathering up the equivalent of 1 to 2 times the world's existing above ground vegetation and putting it down abandoned oil wells or deep in the ocean.
If we manage to
stabilize CO2 levels at 450 ppmv (the
atmospheric CO2
concentration as of 2010 is about 390 ppmv), according to the best estimate, we have a probability of less than 50 % of meeting the 2 °C target.
According to a conversation I had with Hansen, the reason
atmospheric concentration stabilizes is that the ocean sink, that is currently sinking about half of our CO2 emissions, keeps sinking CO2 at around that level so that as we lower emissions at 3 % / year (about 50 % in 20 years) the oceans are sinking most of our emissions and, therefore, keeping
atmospheric concentrations stable.
In 2002, the president said: «I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and its central goal, to
stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate.»
«As a society, we need to better understand the potential cost and performance of CDR strategies for the same reason that we need to better understand the cost and performance of emission mitigation strategies — they may be important parts of a portfolio of options to
stabilize and reduce
atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide»
on the need to
stabilize atmospheric GHG
concentrations, even as global energy use continues to grow.
This is true because most mainstream scientists have concluded that the world must reduce total global emissions by at the very least 60 to 80 percent below existing levels to
stabilize GHG
atmospheric concentrations at minimally safe
atmospheric GHG
concentrations and the United States is a huge emitter both in historical terms and in comparison to current emissions levels of other high emitting nations.
«The report demonstrates that
stabilizing atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations will require deep reductions in the amount of carbon dioxide emitted.
This reduction will
stabilize atmospheric CO2
concentrations below 400 parts per million, limiting the future rise in temperature.
Between 2000 and 2007,
atmospheric methane
concentrations appeared to
stabilize, leading to sustained debate regarding the main drivers of
atmospheric methane.
A study of stomatal frequency in fossil leaves from Holocene lake deposits in Denmark, showing that 9400 years ago CO2
atmospheric level was 333 ppmv, and 9600 years ago 348 ppmv, falsify the concept of
stabilized and low CO2 air
concentration until the advent of industrial revolution [13].
Early participation by developing countries is urgent if the goal is to rapidly
stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas
concentrations.
Economists and climate scientists have developed a number of models to estimate global emissions prices that are consistent with ultimately
stabilizing atmospheric CO2
concentrations at these target levels and minimizing the global burden of mitigation costs over time.
The numbers on the boxes on these two lines specify the probability of exceeding 2 °C if
atmospheric concentration levels are
stabilized at these levels.
No national policy on climate change is ethically acceptable unless it, in combination with fair levels of greenhouse gas emissions from other countries, leads to
stabilizing greenhouse gas
atmospheric concentrations at levels that prevent harm to those around the world who are most vulnerable to climate change.
And The Economist also seems blissfully unaware that
stabilizing anywhere near 450 ppm
atmospheric concentration of CO2 would require immediate and sustained action to replace the world's fossil fuel system with one based on carbon - free energy — precisely the kind of aggressive action this piece seems designed to undercut.
Studies that model natural gas as a bridge, such as one conducted by Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations, find it could help
stabilize atmospheric CO2
concentrations.
and, (d) Whether those causing climate change have obligations to act now because if the world waits to act until all uncertainties are resolved it will likely be too late to prevent catastrophic impacts to others and to
stabilize greenhouse gas
atmospheric concentrations at safe levels?
As we have previously explained in EthicsandClimate.org there is now a scientific consensus that developed countries must limit their ghg emissions by as much as 25 % to 40 % below 1990 emissions levels by 2020 and between 80 % and 95 % below1990 levels by 2050 to have any reasonable chance of avoiding dangerous climate change which would require
atmospheric ghg
concentrations to be
stabilized at 450 ppm.
For perspective, the Waxman - Markey bill aimed to help achieve the Copenhagen climate treaty goal of
stabilizing atmospheric CO2 - equivalent greenhouse gas
concentrations at 450 parts per million by 2050.82 A NAAQS requiring states to make a proportionate contribution83 to CO2 stabilization at 350 parts per million and other greenhouse gases at pre-industrial levels in five to ten years would cause the United States to become a single non-attainment area, and the Clean Air Act would function as a no - growth mandate, contradicting a core purpose of the Act: protecting the «productive capacity» of the population.84
The science is, purportedly, too uncertain to take steps to
stabilize emissions as there are opposing theories as to why the climate is changing, differences in opinion as to how
atmospheric concentrations of GHGs will affect the climate and various viewpoints on whether changes will be good or bad; beneficial or dangerous.
With the
atmospheric concentrations of GHGs thus unlikely to
stabilize in this century (even for the low SRES scenario) without major policy changes, from an emissions perspective, we are not on track for meeting the objectives of UNFCCC Article 2.
«In the 1990's, the progressives running many of the world's western nations embarked on a path to use the threat of dangerous anthropogenic climate change to centralize power in their governments by claiming the need to
stabilize the
concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases»
[In the 1990's, the progressives running many of the world's western nations embarked on a path to use the threat of dangerous anthropogenic climate change to centralize power in their governments by claiming the need to
stabilize the
concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases, which was codified by the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) treaty.]
The letter notes that «Stable
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to continued warming, but if carbon dioxide emissions could be eliminated entirely, temperatures would quickly
stabilize or even decrease over time.
Stable
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would lead to continued warming, but if carbon dioxide emissions could be eliminated entirely, temperatures would quickly
stabilize or even decrease over time.
They concluded that it is not possible to
stabilize atmospheric CO2
concentrations and meet global energy needs «without drastic technological breakthroughs.»