Without their cooperation,
stabilizing atmospheric levels of CO2 is not possible, nor would this stop climate change if it could be done.
But it transpired before long that it will take a lot of time to decrease the anthropogenic pressure by reducing CO2 and other hothouse emissions in order to
stabilize the atmospheric level, and that the industrialized countries were not likely to cope with this task on their own.
Not exact matches
Research into such solutions appears to be warranted given the massive hole we are presently digging ourselves into as far as
stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas
levels.
And while the cut would
stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels, it holds them at about 450 parts - per - million, according to the study.
But this also means that targets such as
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 450 parts per million (nearly double preindustrial
levels) to avoid more than a 3.6 degree F (2 degree C) temperature rise are nearly impossible as well.
If we manage to
stabilize CO2
levels at 450 ppmv (the
atmospheric CO2 concentration as of 2010 is about 390 ppmv), according to the best estimate, we have a probability of less than 50 % of meeting the 2 °C target.
We use measured global temperature and Earth's measured energy imbalance to determine the
atmospheric CO2
level required to
stabilize climate at today's global temperature, which is near the upper end of the global temperature range in the current interglacial period (the Holocene).
According to James Hansen, if we reduce emissions by 3 % / year starting in 2020,
atmospheric CO2
levels will
stabilize and we can stay below +1.5 ºC warming (see his Young Peoples Burden Paper (Figures 10 - 12): https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/8/577/2017/esd-8-577-2017.pdf
According to a conversation I had with Hansen, the reason
atmospheric concentration
stabilizes is that the ocean sink, that is currently sinking about half of our CO2 emissions, keeps sinking CO2 at around that
level so that as we lower emissions at 3 % / year (about 50 % in 20 years) the oceans are sinking most of our emissions and, therefore, keeping
atmospheric concentrations stable.
Ocean acidification could devastate coral reefs and other marine ecosystems even if
atmospheric carbon dioxide
stabilizes at 450 ppm, a
level well below that of many climate change forecasts, report chemical oceanographers Long Cao and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution's Department of Global Ecology in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.
In 2002, the president said: «I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and its central goal, to
stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a
level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate.»
In order for
atmospheric CO2
level to
stabilize, we need to cut emissions roughly in half.
In 2004 Stephen Pacala and Robert Socolow published a paper in Science in which they argued that a pragmatic, but still difficult, way of
stabilizing atmospheric CO2
levels over the long term was via the implementation of seven «stabilization wedges» over the next 50 years.
Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions will require a reduction in global emissions of at least 80 % below 1990
levels by 2050.
The most efficient means of restructuring the energy economy to
stabilize atmospheric CO2
levels is a carbon tax.
This is true because most mainstream scientists have concluded that the world must reduce total global emissions by at the very least 60 to 80 percent below existing
levels to
stabilize GHG
atmospheric concentrations at minimally safe
atmospheric GHG concentrations and the United States is a huge emitter both in historical terms and in comparison to current emissions
levels of other high emitting nations.
A «carbon neutral» bioenergy source would be one that sequestered as much carbon in its growth cycle as it released later when burned as fuel, with the sequestering occurring concurrently with the burning, or nearly so, rather than decades hence, when the negative emissions count for less in
stabilizing atmospheric CO2
levels.
The costs to the world economy of ensuring that
atmospheric CO2e
stabilized at present
levels or below would be prohibitive, destabilizing capitalism itself.
If global greenhouse gas emissions peaked in 2010 the annual emissions reduction rate necessary to
stabilize atmospheric carbon at 450 ppm, the Stern Review suggests, would be 7 percent, with emissions dropping by about 70 percent below 2005
levels by 2050.
In the figure, the IPCC (2007) forecast of 2 °C to 3 °C warming by 2100 is based on
stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 around 550 ppm (a doubling from pre-industrial
levels of 280), up from 385 today.
A study of stomatal frequency in fossil leaves from Holocene lake deposits in Denmark, showing that 9400 years ago CO2
atmospheric level was 333 ppmv, and 9600 years ago 348 ppmv, falsify the concept of
stabilized and low CO2 air concentration until the advent of industrial revolution [13].
It's early days, but this first real - world measurement of a slowdown in the ocean's ability to dissolve carbon could have worrying implications for those currently thinking about how to
stabilize atmospheric greenhouse
levels.
«The Law Dome ice core CO2 records show major growth in
atmospheric CO2
levels over the industrial period, except during 1935 - 1945 A.D. when
levels stabilized or decreased slightly.»
And to eventually stop global warming, we have to
stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas
levels first!
Economists and climate scientists have developed a number of models to estimate global emissions prices that are consistent with ultimately
stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations at these target
levels and minimizing the global burden of mitigation costs over time.
In the following chart the colored lines represent emissions reduction pathways that would
stabilize atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide equivalents at various
levels.
The numbers on the boxes on these two lines specify the probability of exceeding 2 °C if
atmospheric concentration
levels are
stabilized at these
levels.
No national policy on climate change is ethically acceptable unless it, in combination with fair
levels of greenhouse gas emissions from other countries, leads to
stabilizing greenhouse gas
atmospheric concentrations at
levels that prevent harm to those around the world who are most vulnerable to climate change.
Given the growing urgency of the need to rapidly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and the hard - to - imagine magnitude of global emissions reductions needed to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations at reasonably safe
levels, the failure of many engaged in climate change controversies to see the practical significance of understanding climate change as an ethical problem must be seen as a huge human tragedy.
Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations at
levels that will avoid dangerous climate change requires immediate action.
and, (d) Whether those causing climate change have obligations to act now because if the world waits to act until all uncertainties are resolved it will likely be too late to prevent catastrophic impacts to others and to
stabilize greenhouse gas
atmospheric concentrations at safe
levels?
As we have seen above, to
stabilize atmospheric concentrations at
levels that will avoid dangerous climate change the entire world will need to peak its emissions in the next few years followed by emissions reductions at hard to imagine rates over the next 30 years.
As we have previously explained in EthicsandClimate.org there is now a scientific consensus that developed countries must limit their ghg emissions by as much as 25 % to 40 % below 1990 emissions
levels by 2020 and between 80 % and 95 % below1990
levels by 2050 to have any reasonable chance of avoiding dangerous climate change which would require
atmospheric ghg concentrations to be
stabilized at 450 ppm.
We use measured global temperature and Earth's measured energy imbalance to determine the
atmospheric CO2
level required to
stabilize climate at today's global temperature, which is near the upper end of the global temperature range in the current interglacial period (the Holocene).
For perspective, the Waxman - Markey bill aimed to help achieve the Copenhagen climate treaty goal of
stabilizing atmospheric CO2 - equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations at 450 parts per million by 2050.82 A NAAQS requiring states to make a proportionate contribution83 to CO2 stabilization at 350 parts per million and other greenhouse gases at pre-industrial
levels in five to ten years would cause the United States to become a single non-attainment area, and the Clean Air Act would function as a no - growth mandate, contradicting a core purpose of the Act: protecting the «productive capacity» of the population.84
Since to me (and many scientists, although some wanted a lot more corroborative evidence, which they've also gotten) it makes absolutely no sense to presume that the earth would just go about its merry way and keep the climate nice and relatively stable for us (though this rare actual climate scientist pseudo skeptic seems to think it would, based upon some non scientific belief — see second half of this piece), when the earth changes climate easily as it is, climate is ultimately an expression of energy, it is
stabilized (right now) by the oceans and ice sheets, and increasing the number of long term thermal radiation / heat energy absorbing and re radiating molecules to
levels not seen on earth in several million years would add an enormous influx of energy to the lower atmosphere earth system, which would mildly warm the air and increasingly transfer energy to the earth over time, which in turn would start to alter those
stabilizing systems (and which, with increasing ocean energy retention and accelerating polar ice sheet melting at both ends of the globe, is exactly what we've been seeing) and start to reinforce the same process until a new stases would be reached well after the
atmospheric levels of ghg has
stabilized.
The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, just after saying that countries should avoid such dangerous interference with the climate, adds that
atmospheric greenhouse gas
levels should be
stabilized «within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change.»
In any case, again, figure 3 shows that if we stop all emissions now (and yes, Jim, that means completely stop emitting any more CO2, not just
stabilize the rate we are emitting at now, unless I'm missing something), with a climate sensitivity of 3 degrees C we will see
atmospheric CO2
levels remain at current high
levels for centuries.