In general this is true, and helps to explain why measures like beta and
standard deviation of returns do not measure risk, and are not...
Not exact matches
Standard deviation does not indicate how an investment actually performed, but it
does indicate the volatility
of its
returns over time.
That's because the
standard deviation of returns changes over time, as
does the correlation between asset classes.
It doesn't matter if you measure risk by
standard deviation of returns, beta, or credit rating (with junk bonds).
If you believe as we
do that risk can not be adequately explained by a single number such as
standard deviation of return, but is rather the potential for the respective portfolios to face future capital impairment, it becomes important to compare the fundamental character
of the manager's portfolio to that
of the benchmark.
The fund added a miniscule amount
of value over the static reference portfolio but
did so at the expense
of slightly higher volatility (
standard deviation of returns).
How
do the 60/40 vs. 40/60 compare in terms
of standard deviation, downside capture, and risk to
return (Sharpe)?
Standard deviation does not indicate how an investment actually performed, but it
does indicate the volatility
of its
returns over time.
For implied volatility it is okey to use Black and scholes but what to
do with the historical volatility which carry the effect
of past prices as a predictor
of future prices.And then precisely the conditional historical volatility.i suggest that you must go with the process like, for stock
returns 1) first download stock prices into excel sheet 2) take the natural log
of (P1 / po) 3) calculate average
of the sample 4) calculate square
of (X-Xbar) 5) take square root
of this and you will get the
standard deviation of your required data.
Also, note the observation that the long - term Treasury fund, with no credit risk but large term risk, has a higher
standard deviation of annual
returns than
does the high - yield corporate bond fund, which has significant credit risk but much less term risk.
Risk adjusted
returns would favor municipal bonds as equities have
done it the hard way with a
standard deviation (a measure
of volatility)
of over 2.6 % while munis have seen a
standard deviation of under 1 %.
Now, relative to the
standard deviation of returns the weighted average portfolio
did well.
All we can
do is statistically analyze the data we have to make a prediction
of the expected annualized
return in the future and the
standard deviation around that
return (aka the risk).