Alan Grey says: November 3, 2011 at 4:42 pm
His stated Null hypothesis is wrong and evidence of the fuzziness of the whole field.
If Svalgaard says that solar variation (sunspot activity) has no influence on climate (global temperature) then he is correctly
stating a null hypothesis.
We can then
state a null hypothesis that there is an underlying trend of 0.2 ºC / Decade, and this null hypothesis can be falsified with 95 % confidence if any 25 - year trend across the period is more than 0.05 away from 0.2 ºC / Decade.
Not exact matches
What intrigues me, however, is that they appear to have adopted the Trenberth view of a
null hypothesis, in that they are
stating that in the absence of clear evidence that climate change will not be a threat, we should assume it is and act accordingly rather than wait to see what develops.
To postulate a
null hypothesis of «innocence», which
states humans have had absolutely no influence on our planet's climate is silly as very few people would argue for this case.
If the as -
stated formulation is correct, namely Given that global warming is «unequivocal», to quote the 2007 IPCC report, the
null hypothesis should now be reversed, thereby placing the burden of proof on showing that there is no human influence.
falsified the original
null hypotheses) without ever
stating what that burden (or
null hypothesis) was.
The
null hypothesis that is rejected
states that the confidence interval is not valid.
The «
null hypothesis» so far could be
stated, «it has warmed since the modern temperature record started in 1850, ergo: global warming is real».
Both of these have their related
null hypotheses (
stating that the evidence in question doesn't exist), but they are not purely scientific, but contain also other considerations as an important component.
Fred, I go by what I read: to invite you to develop a reasoned and lightly referenced argument for and against the proposition highlighted in the extract below — «the
null hypothesis should now be reversed, thereby placing the burden of proof on showing that there is no human influence»... Both essays would be written «blind» — i.e., without seeing the others» essay — They do not
state what the
null hypothesis is.
Also Leif got the
null hypothesis incorrect,
stating that Solar variation has no influence on climate.
If someone of the ones who
state the assertion about the «stopped» global warming, is able to demonstrate that the
Null hypothesis above can be successfully rejected, using proper statistical analysis, I will concede that they indeed have statistical evidence at hand, which indicates something has changed significantly in the global temperature record since 1997 or whatever point is claimed to be the one at which global warming allegedly «stopped».
However, the «dangerous AGW
hypothesis» as
stated above is not the «
null hypothesis» here (regardless of whether Kevin Trenberth would like for this to be the case).
Prof. Curry, the problem of the
null hypothesis is not the principal dificulty here, the major problem lies in a failure to explicitly
state the alternative
hypothesis.
As
stated in my paper, climate attribution
hypotheses are particularly ill - suited for
null hypothesis testing.
The
null hypothesis is best
stated such that the magnitude of its acceptance or rejection can / should influence policy.
The
null hypothesis is usually
stated in such a way that if our theory is correct, then we will reject the
null hypothesis.
The
null hypothesis states that the current climate is within the parameters of the Holocene prior to the industrial revolution.
Any number of courts, expert witnesses, lawyers, litigation support services firms and even published, peer - reviewed articles have
stated that a high p - value provides us with the likelihood of the
null hypothesis.