Predictions of the future
state of a chaotic system, based on wishful thinking, are useful if suckers believe you, and keep giving you money.
Indeed the mean
state of a chaotic system can be defined by the forcings.
«Indeed the mean
state of a chaotic system can be defined by the forcings... forecast with a high degree of confidence that the next month of July will be — on average - warmer than April»
Although it is generally not possible to predict a specific future
state of a chaotic system (there is no telling what temperature it will be in Oregon on December 21 2012), it is still possible to make statistical claims about the behavior of the system as a whole (it is very likely that Oregon's December 2012 temperatures will be colder than its July 2012 temperatures).
Using models that are optimized for historical accuracy to predict future real
states of a chaotic system have error terms that grow as a function of distance from supporting real data.
Not exact matches
The intent
of this paper is to present a conceptual model
of a physical and biological universe in a
state of constant change and evolution, based on three principal ideas: (a) neo-Aristotelian notions
of reciprocal causality, (b)
chaotic dynamics and contingencies
of self - organizing
systems, and (c) emergence
of consciousness and sense
of moral purpose in...
The intent
of this paper is to present a conceptual model
of a physical and biological universe in a
state of constant change and evolution, based on three principal ideas: (a) neo-Aristotelian notions
of reciprocal causality, (b)
chaotic dynamics and contingencies
of self - organizing
systems, and (c) emergence
of consciousness and sense
of moral purpose in humans.
Some
of these
systems exhibit
chaotic behaviour: their
state at some future time can not be predicted from their
state at an earlier time, because imperceptible differences that exist now can cause big divergences later.
The vibratory
states of a dynamical (
chaotic)
system could to date only be visualized with methods requiring several graphs that are hard to interpret for non-mathematicians.
At heart, I am an explorer who sees the present
state of education in general as
chaotic because the education
systems still hold to an industrial educational model that is well past its «best before date».
Hi, when I am discussing with climate skeptics, they often refer to the third report
of the IPCC (page 774): «In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.
Samson wrote: when I am discussing with climate skeptics, they often refer to the third report
of the IPCC (page 774): «In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
And such a feat is likely to remain impossible for the foreseeable future, because a) the mathematics are
chaotic (in the technical sense, which I presume I don't need to explain), and b) the data we have, though already voluminous, is not even close quantitatively and qualitatively to the fantastic precision needed to specify the
state of the planetary
system as definitively as that.
Even the IPCC said: «The climate
system is a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.
The IPCC doesn't foretell the future, it
stated in TAR that it was impossible for forecast the future
state of a coupled non-linear
chaotic system.
«A dynamical
system such as the climate
system, governed by nonlinear deterministic equations (see Nonlinearity), may exhibit erratic or
chaotic behaviour in the sense that very small changes in the initial
state of the
system in time lead to large and apparently unpredictable changes in its temporal evolution.
``... we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
«The climate
system is a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
If P is independent
of initial conditions and t then an invariant probability density exists and the
system while still being
chaotic and unpredictable has a well defined probability to be in a certain
state.
If I can not say 100 % this will be the
state of the
system at any given point doesn't mean the
system is really
chaotic.
Due to the sensitivity
of chaotic systems to initial
state, by careful adjustment
of the initial parameters you can come up with just about any answer you want to support just about any policy you want to promote.
The model output is evidence
of the result
of the many processes working together, much as the Pythagorean theorem provides evidence about the hypoteneuses
of a large set imperfectly studied right triangles; or long term simulations
of the planetary movements based on Newton's laws provide evidence that the orbits are
chaotic rather than periodic; or simulations provide evidence that high - dimensional nonlinear dissipative
systems are never in equilibrium or steady
state even with constant input.
The 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report that governments accept as certain predictions
of future weather says, «In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
The climate is too complex to make calls about the future, and if you think that's just a denier talking then I'll refer you to the IPCC TAR WG1 14.2.2.2, which explains that the future
state of a coupled non-linear
chaotic system (the climate) can not be predicted.
Even IPCC's 2001 summary assessment report conceded that «The climate
system is a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
«WG1.said «we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.
Once this done, and provided the dynamics has the ergodic property (a
chaotic system may be but has not to be ergodic), one can apply the regodic theorem and study the probabilities
of the different
states.
I would reming these believers that the 2003 report says:» In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
IPCC AR3 2001 Paragraph 5 section 14.2.2.2
states «In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
As said by IPCC in its TAR (2001) «we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
Truth n ° 21 As said by IPCC in its TAR (2001) «we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the prediction
of a specific future climate
state is not possible.»
AMO / PDO on the other hand are
system states that last 20 - 40 years, and there's very good reasons to think that they are the cause
of the entire modern warming, these should be modeled by GCM's, but they don't do this either, and they have a far bigger effect on «climate» while the smaller scale
chaotic artifacts have no effect on «climate».
Because it's a physical
system that is governed by
chaotic dynamics, i.e., by dynamics where an arbitrarily small difference between to initial
states will lead to an eponential divergence
of the following trajectories after some time has past.
We can not solve the many body atomic
state problem in quantum theory exactly any more than we can solve the many body problem exactly in classical theory or the set
of open, nonlinear, coupled, damped, driven
chaotic Navier - Stokes equations in a non-inertial reference frame that represent the climate
system.
That forecast is consistent with a statement in the aforementioned IPCC technical report: «In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
Chief Hydrologist posts «We are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
In 2007, WG1.said «we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled nonlinear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.»
In climate research and modelling, we should recognise that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that the long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.
If the whole
system of coming to a consensus that leads to meaningful actions is looked at from a chaos theory perspective, I think this so called «bump» may lead to a more
chaotic and unpredictable
state of affairs for a while longer... i.e., we can't predict what is «likely» to happen in the court
of public / policy maker opinion for a more extended period before settling down.
In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that long - term prediction
of future climate
states is not possible.
In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear
chaotic system, and therefore that long - term prediction
of future climate
state is not possible.
In Newtonian physics, given a given
state of a
system, the following
states are deterministic, though they might be
chaotic or not.
There's no way to know for sure how many
of the approximately 600,000 foster children in the US are suffering from RAD, but I'm positive the disorder is flying under the radar and contributing significantly to the
chaotic state of our foster care
system.