ok, granted no one claims they can predict individual
hurricanes or transitions in the southern oscillation, but the fact of the matter is that you have a significant
statistical description of El Nino and no one bothered to include it in the 2006
forecast?
In doing so, they fail to recognize the important distinction between the operational
hurricane forecasting problem (a classical initial value problem) and the boundary value problem addressed in KT04, where one is concerned with the maximum
hurricane intensity that is possible for a given set of largescale environmental conditions (i.e., a climatological or
statistical distribution of maximum intensities).