Sentences with phrase «statistical significant warming trends»

Two periods with no statistical significant warming trends are 1977 to 1985 and 1981 to 1989.

Not exact matches

A «pause» in the global temperature trend can be diagnosed, when both of the following criteria are fulfilled: a) based on a robust statistical analysis, the global temperature trend is not statistically distinguishable from the Zero trend, b) based on a robust statistical analysis, the global temperature trend is statistically distinguishable from the longer - term, multi-decadal warming trend (which itself is highly statistically significant).

First, Happer mentions statistical significance, but global surface temperature trends are rarely if ever statistically significant (at a 95 % confidence level) over periods as short as a decade, even in the presence of an underlying long - term warming trend, because of the natural variability and noise in the climate system.

To counteract the undeniable fact that no significant warming has occurred since about 1997, Karlsson produces the breathtakingly self - interested assertion that ``... statistical significance relates to how probable the observe [d] data, or more extreme data, are on the null hypothesis, not the practical significance of the observed trend.

David Rose mislead his readership with his simplistic math argument and by confusing an absence of a warming trend as a significant statistical signal for a plateau.

For this article, a statistically - significant global warming means that the linear trend (slope of the trend line) is likely greater than zero with 95 % statistical confidence (i.e. the 95 % error bars do not include a possible 0.0 or negative temperature degree slope).

There will never have been statistically significant global warming is the last few years, because statistical significance is heavily dependent on the amount of data points and hence the length of the record you are trending.

... short time scales... preclude determination of a statistically significant trend at the 95 % confidence level, although lack of statistical signficance does not negate the existence of [warming] as defined here.

Summary of how they got to this finding: They use CMIP models which, if not outright flawed, have not proved their validity in estimated temperature levels in the 2030 to 2070 timeframe, are used as the basis for extrapolations that assert the creation of more and more 3 - sigma «extreme events» of hot weather; this is despite the statistical contradiction and weak support for predicting significant increases in outlier events based on mean increases; then, based on statistical correlations between mortality and extreme heat events (ie heat waves), temperature warming trends are conjured into an enlargement of the risks from heat events; risks increase significantly only by ignoring obvious adjustments and mitigations any reasonable community or person would make to adapt to warmer weather.

Phil Jones did not say that there «had been no significant warming» he was misquoted from a discussion of the statistical significance of the trend.

The lack of statistical significance in temperate trends since 1998 is at least partly a statistical power issue - there is not enough data (since 98) to achieve a statistically significant result, even if there has been warming.