Sentences with phrase «statistical uncertainty estimates»

The usual health warnings were issued in the form of statistical uncertainty estimates, but these invitations to prudence were given less attention than they deserved by most consumers of the numbers.

Not exact matches

This is intended to take account of some of the uncertainties inherent in data on whale populations, and requires only two kinds of data: current estimates and their statistical error; and historical details of catches.

The model results (which are based on driving various climate models with estimated solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic radiative forcing changes over this timeframe) are, by in large, remarkably consistent with the reconstructions, taking into account the statistical uncertainties.

(in general, whether for future projections or historical reconstructions or estimates of climate sensitivity, I tend to be sympathetic to arguments of more rather than less uncertainty because I feel like in general, models and statistical approaches are not exhaustive and it is «plausible» that additional factors could lead to either higher or lower estimates than seen with a single approach.

Finally, I note that statistical uncertainty has been estimated according to the IPCC AR5 method, which was in turn based on the autocorrelation adjustment method in Santer et al (2008) on which you (Gavin) were a co-author.

When I read the media PR on this, it looked like BEST claimed better statistical methods, leading to lower estimates of the uncertainty in the temperature change - even at the decadal level.

Although some earlier work along similar lines had been done by other paleoclimate researchers (Ed Cook, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Ray Bradley, Malcolm Hughes, and Henry Diaz being just a few examples), before Mike, no one had seriously attempted to use all the available paleoclimate data together, to try to reconstruct the global patterns of climate back in time before the start of direct instrumental observations of climate, or to estimate the underlying statistical uncertainties in reconstructing past temperature changes.

The IPCC range, on the other hand, encompasses the overall uncertainty across a very large number of studies, using different methods all with their own potential biases and problems (e.g., resulting from biases in proxy data used as constraints on past temperature changes, etc.) There is a number of single studies on climate sensitivity that have statistical uncertainties as small as Cox et al., yet different best estimates — some higher than the classic 3 °C, some lower.

I advise military evaluators to RIGOROUSLY assess the assumptions of statistical models (not to be confused with physical processes) upon which climate scientists, solar scientists, etc. base estimates of uncertainty.

There is currently no consensus on the optimal way to divide computer resources among finer numerical grids, which allow for better simulations; greater numbers of ensemble members, which allow for better statistical estimates of uncertainty; and inclusion of a more complete set of processes (e.g., carbon feedbacks, atmospheric chemistry interactions).

Our experiments suggest that both statistical approaches should yield reliable reconstructions of the true climate history within estimated uncertainties, given estimates of the signal and noise attributes of actual proxy data networks.

There are many other tests that can be used to estimate the uncertainty that remains in the final results after statistical handling has been completed.

UHI is under estimated, the homogenization method is not accepted by statisticians outside of the small club who created the technique — the climate-gate emails showed severe uncertainties and lack of knowledge of proper analytical and statistical techniques, and even suppression of information, even if this is more common practice than people believe... just unacceptable.

Such issues of robustness need to be taken into account in estimates of statistical uncertainties.

To estimate the uncertainty range (2σ) for mean tropical SST cooling, we consider the error contributions from (a) large - scale patterns in the ocean data temperature field, which hamper a direct comparison with a coarse - resolution model, and (b) the statistical error for each reconstructed paleo - temperature value.

The Berkeley data is plotted with uncertainties estimated via randomly subdividing the 179,928 scalpeled stations into 8 smaller sets, calculating global land averages for each of those, and then comparing the results using the «jackknife» statistical method.

«Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues.

The 95 % confidence intervals in Figs. 2 and 3 represent uncertainty in the statistical estimates of the regression model for observed paths of forcings, SOI, and volcanic sulfates.

The regional outlook contributions help shed light on the uncertainties associated with the Pan-Arctic estimates by providing more detail at the regional scale, and were based on numerical models, statistical methods, and heuristic estimates.

By the statistical evaluation of the different climate developments simulated, the uncertainties in climate projections can be better estimated and reduced, for example, for rainfall trends.

Value uncertainties are generally estimated using statistical techniques and expressed probabilistically.

The statistical framework based on regression provides a basis for attaching uncertainty estimates to the reconstructions.