Sentences with phrase «stick shaped reconstruction»

Hockey stick shaped reconstructions «proved» something odd was happening in recent times, variable reconstructions indicated a high sensitivity — either way was «not inconsistent with» the narrative.

Not exact matches

Perhaps you'll join Montford in complaining that hockey - stick shaped proxies dominate reconstructions because they correlate well with temperature.

If more or less all reconstructions end up delivering some manner of a hockey - stick shape, then why not simply go with the reconstructions that satisfy both conditions of robustness, considering the first one is just about always met..?

These results are bound to stir up interest beyond the scientific community, since the «hockey stick» shape of previous reconstructions has become so totemic (although just about everyone agrees that there is no need for this «totemising».

These results are bound to stir up interest beyond the scientific community, since the «hockey stick» shape of previous reconstructions has become so totemic (although just about everyone agrees that there is no need for this «totemising»).

If (1) you have a few hockey stick shaped series in a smallish data set which otherwise is cancelling noise, and (2) then re-scale your average to a temperature scale in the calibration period, you can get hockey stick shaped «reconstructions».

I appreciate the bold scientists who maintains the debate about scientific methods of climate change research; however, I miss a mention of the first challengers, McIntyre and McKitrick, who were the first scientists who questioned the statistical methods leading to hockety stick shape of paleoclimate reconstructions.

In fact, Marohasy points out that a lack of rising temperatures for recent decades is so common in paleoclimate reconstructions that tendentious climate scientists have necessarily added heavily adjusted, hockey - stick - shaped instrumental records (e.g., from NASA GISS, HadCRUT) on to the end of the trend so as to maintain the visualization of an ongoing dangerous warming.

The NAS said» Mann et al. used a type of principal component analysis that tends to bias the shape of the reconstructions», i.e. produce hockey sticks from baseball statistics, telephone book numbers, and monte carlo random numbers.

«Mann and his co-authors created a temperature reconstruction of the past 1,000 years (of the northern hemisphere) which had the shape of a «hockey stick.»

He (McIntyre) was able to demonstrate that the way they had extracted the temperature signal from the tree ring records was biased so as to choose hockey - stick shaped graphs in preference to other shapes... He also showed that the appearance of the graph was due solely to the use of an estimate of historic temperatures based on tree rings from bristlecone pines, a species that was known to be problematic for this kind of reconstruction.

Their two main results are a confirmation that current global surface temperatures are hotter than at any time in the past 1,400 years (the general «hockey stick» shape, as shown in Figure 1), and that while the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and Little Ice Age (LIA) are clearly visible events in their reconstruction, they were not globally synchronized events.

If tree - ring temperature reconstructions have the effect of ironing out peaks and valleys — and you seem to agree they do — then appending an instrument record that happens to correspond to a peak, will always yield a hockey stick shape.

Dr. Mann's reconstruction of global temperatures shows a distinct pattern shaped like a hockey stick: Temperatures stayed level for centuries, with a sudden upturn during recent decades.

They also dispute McIntyre and McKitrick's alleged identification of a fundamental flaw that would significantly bias the MBH climate reconstruction toward a hockey stick shape.

The resulting reconstruction showed a rise in temperature in the medieval period, thus eliminating the hockey stick shape.

I'll simply note that the McShane and Wyner millenial reconstruction has a pronounced hockey stick shape, albeit with a higher Medieval Warm Period and wider error bars than the norm seen in various spaghetti graphs (apparently attributable to the Bayesian «path» approach).

My position remains that the hockey stick will be wrong when a better, more robust, more statistically valid reconstruction showing a considerably different shape is generated.

However, when he did this test, the hockey stick shape of the final reconstruction came from the bristlecones.

In this reconstruction, the bristlecone pine hockey - stick shows up as the PC4 (accounting for less than 8 percent of the North American network explained variance rather than 38 percent in the incorrect MBH98 calculation) and still imparts a hockey - stick shape to the whole NH temperature reconstruction.

«The simulations nearly always yielded PC1s with a hockey stick shape, some of which bore a quite remarkable similarity to the actual MBH98 temperature reconstruction — as shown by the example in Figure 1.»