In subsequent articles I will conduct some calculations that assume dividends are reinvested annually, but all the portfolio growth and spending assumptions are
still on a total return basis.
Not exact matches
Still, we can expect a certain amount of day - to - day volatility in the Strategic
Total Return Fund
based on the day - to - day fluctuations in precious metals shares.
Meanwhile, the Projections box indicates that this issue's
total return potential to 2018 - 2020 is subpar, compared with the market median of 10 %, but might
still appeal to some investors
on a risk - adjusted
basis.
While this only goes back to 1999, it would
still be insightful to compare these two indexes
on a year by year and aggregate
basis for
total return and volatility to get a true sense of the difference that treasury bond duration makes.
Presently, the likely range of S&P 500 annual
total returns for the coming decade is in the 2 - 3 % range
based on average and median scenarios, with outside possibilities as low as -3 % in the very bearish case and
still less than 8 % in the very bullish case.
Despite this,
on a trailing 12 month
basis, the index
still maintains a positive 17.1 %
total return.
Note that
on the
basis of this measure, expected 12 - year S&P 500
total returns associated with current valuation levels are negative, and even if one was to shift the blue line up somewhat closer to the red line in recent years, the associated
return expectation would
still be close to zero (which is what I actually expect
based on MarketCap / GVA and other historically reliable measures).