Numerai incentivizes data scientists to analyze
stock market prediction models built with artificial intelligence.
That price return rate of 1.4 % / month isn't boring, of course, and is close to where
the stock market prediction model would have predicted back in March 2009, where it forecast total returns of around 16 % / year for 10 years.
Not exact matches
, Fabian Hollstein, Marcel Prokopczuk and Chardin Simen test effects of different return sampling frequencies, forecast adjustments and
model combinations on
market beta
prediction accuracy across the universe of U.S.
stocks.
First, users shouldn't expect the
models to make specific
predictions about, say, a
stock market crash next Tuesday.
At that level REIT total returns over the next 12 months were predicted to be negative and to underperform the broad
stock market — and both
predictions were true, although the
model failed to predict the severity of the downturn with REIT returns of -23 percent underperforming the
stock market by 20 percentage points during those 12 months.