Investors don't typically wait for high levels of inflation before adjusting
stock valuation multiples lower.
Not exact matches
Even though the correlation is strong, there are times when the total return on
stocks has been positive, even as the
valuation multiple declined.
Another example, Macy's, which is popular with value investors for a high dividend combined with a low
valuation multiples, also saw its worst single - day
stock performance post earnings in over a decade, falling 14 percent.
Domestic - facing
stocks have faster expected sales and earnings growth but trade at a nearly two point P / E
multiple valuation discount relative to
stocks with high international sales.
The more corporate earnings grow, the higher the
stock market if
valuation multiples stay the same.
Stocks can see their PE
multiples expand and contract in a manner that has almost nothing to do with changes in EPS, which makes looking at these metrics a poor indicator of
valuation or future returns.
«At 15x and 11x NTM EPS and FCF, the
stock is trading near the upper - end of its recent
valuation range and we believe it is tough to expect the
multiple to expand,» wrote Lamba of Apple.
It's important to emphasize that I don't view any of these groups as «undervalued» - even the largest
stocks are above historical norms of
valuation (with various individual exceptions), and even apparently «low» P / E
multiples should be evaluated critically since they're on record earnings.
Notice that in 2000,
valuation multiples were highest for the largest
stocks and lowest for the smallest
stocks.
So while the
valuation multiples of the largest
stocks have dropped by over 50 %, the
valuation multiples of the smallest
stocks have more than doubled.
But in the late 90s, when small technology companies with excessive
valuation premiums displaced big businesses from the large - cap universe, investors who thought large caps were low risk got a double whammy — large - cap
stocks» earnings and P / E
multiples both declined sharply.
The company's strengths can be seen in
multiple areas, such as its notable return on equity, attractive
valuation levels, expanding profit margins, good cash flow from operations and increase in
stock price during the past year.
As you can see below, these forward
valuation multiples make the
stock look attractive compared to the kind of
multiples it's traded at in recent years.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for
stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings
multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher
valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
This one of a kind program includes a distinguished speaker series,
multiple valuation case studies of actual businesses and
stocks purchased by Warren Buffett, and for the final exam, student presentations of businesses they think would best fit into the Berkshire family of businesses.
The S&P 500 registered a record high after an advancing half - cycle since 2009 that is historically long - in - the - tooth and already exceeds the
valuation peaks set at every cyclical extreme in history but 2000 on the S&P 500 (across all
stocks, current median price / earnings, price / revenue and enterprise value / EBITDA
multiples already exceed the 2000 extreme).
Investors looking for better opportunities with less stretched
valuations should reconsider international markets, particularly Japan, where
multiples can still provide a lift for
stocks.
In order to add more quantity of such a
stock at expensive
valuation, the conviction of the investor should come from how accurately he could calculate and visualize the future earnings of the company provided the
valuation multiple remains the same or within a range.
The Acquirer's
Multiple ®
Valuation Ratio All stocks in the deep value stock screeners are picked using The Acquirer's Multiple ® valuati
Valuation Ratio All
stocks in the deep value
stock screeners are picked using The Acquirer's
Multiple ®
valuationvaluation ratio.
The Acquirer's
Multiple ®
Valuation Ratio All stocks are picked using The Acquirer's Multiple ® valuati
Valuation Ratio All
stocks are picked using The Acquirer's
Multiple ®
valuationvaluation ratio.
During multi-year periods when
valuation multiples expand and growth
stocks are in favor, it seems clear that we will struggle to keep pace with the market.
The
stock's current
valuation seems reasonable considering the company's stability, but I'd prefer to own the
stock at a somewhat lower cash flow
multiple for a greater margin of safety.
After weeding out bad businesses the next needle (s) to pass is the parallel decision on if this good
stock is also cheep judging from the absolute level of a number of
valuation multiples and if the investor in the process of analyzing the qualities and inexpensiveness of the
stock has been free from biases.
The title is an apt description of the content as value investing in this case refers to the currently popular quality - compounding genre, not investing in low
valuation multiple, bombed out, deep value
stocks.
The proposal, led by a mutual fund with investments in Oracle, points out that
multiple studies show that board and managerial diversity are linked to better corporate performance and higher
stock market
valuations.
The latter occurs when the momentum effect is shifting from high -
valuation -
multiple stocks to cheap
stocks or vice versa, which creates high turnover in both the long and short portfolios, triggering very active trading.
I found this projection interesting and set out to examine how realistic it is, given what we know at this point in time, by decomposing total
stock returns to its components, namely dividend yield, inflation, real earnings growth and change in the
valuation multiple.
As the period of analysis lengthens, a larger contribution of a
stock's return comes from a change in the fundamentals, compared with the contribution from a change in
valuation multiples.
European value
stocks have kept pace broadly with the other benchmarks in the past few years thanks to essentially one force alone — rising
valuation multiples.
It was all about
valuation back then — finding
stocks that were trading at low
multiples of earnings and free cash flow.
However, that assumes everything goes well and the
stock's lofty
valuation multiple remains steady, which is far from a guarantee.
When this happens (all business cycles eventually do come to an end) we'll be left with double
valuation headwinds: falling earnings forcing high
valuation multiples higher and higher
stock / bond relative PE ratios.
That's because when
stocks have high
multiples and tight spreads, there's little upside in holding them (future return has been brought forward to today) but there's lots of downside due to their equity
valuations tendency to mean revert.
Now consider the growth
stock: It actually ends up delivering a consistent 15 % annual gain in revenue & earnings — based on that performance, your fair value estimate rises accordingly & we can be pretty confident the market's happy to maintain or increase its
valuation multiple.
This neatly side - steps the issue of fair value altogether, which obviously helps avoid the temptation to exclusively focus on & assume a sudden step - up in a
stock's
valuation multiple.
As we demonstrate in the attached «DHT Peer
Valuation», DHT's
stock price is presently at a 75 % or greater discount to its value at its peers» average
multiples of 2010 and 2011 EBITDA, i.e. an implied
stock price of approximately $ 6.16 - $ 6.41 (versus $ 3.52 on 2/26/10) were it valued like its peers.
But the firm's research indicates that
stock buybacks do not change investors» estimates for long - term earnings - per - share growth, or induce them to accord a company a higher
valuation multiple.
Obviously with tech companies and their cash holdings, their approaches to
stock comp / buybacks / repatriation / capex through acquisition etc have to be borne in mind, and how much of it is effectively working capital in one form or another — but it occurred to me that there are a few companies out there where cash balances could make a material difference to
valuation (even more so than picking the right
multiples with some!)
[N American
stocks often trade at a
multiple of UK
valuations, particularly when it comes to hot new sectors — witness the astounding step - change in HIVE Blockchain Technologies» share price &
valuation.]
Unlike my individual company
stock picks, I obviously have no specific Fair Value Price Target — I'm relying on my bullish oil / commodity view, continued Russian growth (and financial strength), and an improvement in market sentiment and
valuation multiples.
This one of a kind program includes a distinguished speaker series,
multiple valuation case studies of actual businesses and
stocks purchased by Warren Buffett, and for the final exam, student presentations of businesses they think would best fit into the Berkshire family of businesses.
Those expectations are embedded in the
valuation multiple of the
stock.
Since many of these blue chips are trading at historically low
valuations, they are offering an entry - level dividend yield that is in some cases a
multiple of what you would normally expect to be able to get from these
stocks.
However, with Welltower trading near all - time highs and many bond - like
stocks trading at premium
valuation multiples relative to history, short - term, more risk averse investors need to keep in mind the risk of a short to medium - term correction if rates do begin to rise and cause capital outflows for bond - like
stocks.