Absent a major shift higher in US growth — something I see no evidence of — there is little reason to expect big returns from US
stocks over the next decade.
This combination of higher dividend yield and an economy that recovers will drive up the price of penny
stocks over the next decade.
TIPS are expected to perform slightly better than
stocks over the next decade starting from current valuations.
Unfortunately, investors who will be net buyers of
stocks over the next decade will (or should) view the current level of the stock markets with some dismay.
While polls suggest that investors expect a 19 % annual return on
stocks over the next decade, the fact is that S&P 500 earnings have grown at just 7 % annually, not only over the past decade, but as far back as 1950.
Not exact matches
If Mr. Musk were somehow to increase the value of Tesla to $ 650 billion — a figure many experts would contend is laughably impossible and would make Tesla one of the five largest companies in the United States, based on current valuations — his
stock award could be worth as much as $ 55 billion (assuming the company does not issue any more shares
over the
next decade, which is unrealistic).
The ratio has previously been this low only six times during the past two
decades; whenever that happens,
stocks have rallied
over the
next year by more than 50 %, on average.
Rather, the controversy is
over the roughly $ 175 million worth of restricted
stock units Tillerson has that were slated to vest
over the
next decade.
While rapidly expanding
over the
next decade to 5,886 stores worldwide, its
stock rose in step.
If TEN can maintain 2016 NOPAT margins as expected (6 %) and grow NOPAT by just 3 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 110 today — a 107 % upside.
This expansion is expected to result in significant inflation gains
over the
next decade, an environment in which natural resource
stocks have historically outperformed the broader market.
The founder of Vanguard Group thinks a conservative portfolio of bonds will only return about 3 percent a year
over the
next decade, and
stocks won't do much better.
If Herbalife can grow NOPAT by just 7 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 80 / share today — a 37 % upside.
I try not to focus too much on historic highs and lows and I certainly don't spend much time thinking, «what will
stocks do
over the
next decade.»
I think the bond market is where people giving financial advice
over the
next one or two
decades are going to have to prove their worth, not the
stock market.
Similarly for
stocks because they fare poorly as well in inflationary periods... Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies
over the
next few years and even
decades.»
However, if American Express can continue to grow NOPAT by 6 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 91 / share — a 72 % upside.
Again: «If TJX can maintain current margins (8 %) and grow NOPAT by 6 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 97 / share today — a 20 % upside.
In a more optimistic scenario of 5 % compound annual NOPAT growth
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 100 / share today — a 54 % upside.
If JBSS can maintain current NOPAT margins (5 % TTM) and grow NOPAT by 3 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 82 / share today — a 26 % upside.
Stocks are not a claim to
next year's earnings, but to a very long - term stream of cash flows that will be delivered into the hands of investors
over decades and
decades.
If KMB can maintain 2017 NOPAT margins (14 %) and grow NOPAT by just 3 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 155 / share today — a 55 % upside.
-LSB-...] The Most Interesting Asset Class
Over the
Next Decade «Vanguard highlighted high - yield bonds to show how they typically perform worse than other types of bonds during a
stock market drop.»
In fact, if Wal - Mart can grow profits by just 2 % compounded annually
over the
next decade, the
stock is worth $ 108 / share today — an 80 % upside.
AeroVironment's current price - to - earnings ratio of 41 is expensive, but both drones and EV chargers are going to be big growth businesses
over the
next decade, and I think this is a
stock that's worth paying a premium for.
What
stocks on the market today can offer returns like that
over the
next three or four
decades?
While it's impossible to predict exactly what the
stock market will do, investing pros
over the past several months have been reducing their expectations for what they think the
stock market will return, not only in the
next year, but potentially
over the
next couple of
decades.
Looking back through history, whenever value
stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long - term returns have generally been strong.3 From current depressed valuation levels, value
stocks have in the past, on average, doubled
over the
next five years.4 Not that we necessarily expect returns of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six
decades of experience investing through various market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed in favor of long - term value investors.
How (and what) does John Bogle think about the
stock and bond markets
over the
next decade?
I see Visa as a company that could capably grow its earnings power at a mid-single-digit clip
over the
next decade, if not longer, making this a growth
stock to buy and hold forever.
Ben Thomas, the manager of market information at Meat and Live
Stock Australia, said the proportion of cattle exported live could grow to around 20 per cent
over the
next decade if China reaches its goal of securing 1 million head a year.
Due to an aging scientific workforce within NOAA and fewer students going into the necessary fields of study for fish
stock assessment, there could be as many as 180 vacancies within NMFS
over the
next decade, according to a 2008 report issued by the Departments of Commerce and Education.
The cyclically - adjusted price / earnings ratio («CAPE»), among other valuation metrics, suggests that
stocks are priced to deliver flat or negative returns
over the
next decade.
It is highly likely that the
stock market's multiples will contract
over the
next decade.
There are many penny
stocks that would be solid investments
over the
next decade.
This, when combined with higher cash levels at companies, including penny
stocks, will drive companies to increase their dividend yield
over the
next decade.
Someone who was unlucky enough to invest in a balanced portfolio of Canadian
stocks, U.S.
stocks and Canadian bonds back in 1998 would have made just
over 4 % a year on their money
over the
next decade — before deducting fees, inflation or taxes.
There is a slight chance that
stocks will return 6 % +
over the
next decade or two.
Our Humble Opinion: While a globally diversified
stock portfolio might return 6 % a year
over the
next decade, bond investors probably shouldn't expect to earn much above 3 % — and that assumes you lean toward corporate bonds and hence take a moderate amount of credit risk.
Assuming 2 % yearly inflation, he estimates
stocks and bonds will deliver annualized gains of roughly 7 % and 4 % respectively
over the
next few
decades.
Third, there's the risk you'll end up amassing less for retirement and other long - term goals than you had hoped, because
stock returns
over the
next decade prove disappointing.
This is considerably lower than the 8 % to 10 %
stock returns that pundits are forecasting
over the
next decade and has significantly different asset allocation implications than those entailed by the 8 % -10 % projections.
The Dividend Growth portfolio selects dividend - paying
stocks that I believe will provide an attractive income
over the
next decade and beyond.
My expectation is that
stocks will deliver a 4 % real average annual return
over the
next decade and a mix of high - quality corporate and government bonds will generate a little
over 1 %.
Consider what would happen if the Canadian
stock market averages an 8 per cent annual return
over the
next few
decades.
Investment adviser and ETF guru Rick Ferri's recently released long - term forecast for
stock and bond returns estimates annualized returns
over the
next few
decades will come in at 7 % or so for large - company
stocks and 4 % or so for 10 - year Treasury bonds, assuming 2 % inflation.
You enter today's value of P / E10, possibly to find the most likely range of
stock returns
over the
next few
decades.
For example, you may have a long - term investment in index funds because you believe the
stock market will go up
over the
next decade.
Considering the tremendous amounts of volatility
stock investors have had to deal with
over the last
decade and the returns from holding a mix of bonds and
stocks that investors should expect to earn
over the
next decade, Mr. Bernstein, who passed away in 2009, would surely be making the same argument.
I noticed this year that in 2011, I wrote to you that the major risks for the economy would be felt in the
next three years and after that, common
stocks would do very well
over the
next decade — and it was unlikely that bonds would outperform
stocks in the
next decade as they had in the past two
decades, given that long term treasuries were yielding only 2.9 % at the time!