From an observational perspective then, key issues are the
tropical storm formation regions, the frequency, intensity, duration and tracks of tropical storms, and associated precipitation.
Figure 7u - 11 describes the month frequency of
storm formation in the three ocean basins found in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1951 to 2002.
But California droughts are also fundamentally linked to the quantities and timing of precipitation, the dynamics
of storm formation in the Pacific Ocean, the impacts of climate change on the frequency and intensity of El Niño and La Niña events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the behavior of the jet stream as conditions in the Arctic change.
Tropical cyclones are already extremely rare in the Arabian Sea, with its low humidity and high wind shear, which
disrupts storm formation, but one made landfall in Oman and Iran in 2007.
That doesn't mean more hurricanes everywhere, though: While El Niño tends to boost activity in the Pacific Ocean, it clamps down
on storm formation in the tropical Atlantic.
They've ruined that but the University of Geneva, research is being done on sort of an amazing idea for being able to use lasers that would be directed, shot up into the sky
into storm formations, that might have a lot electrical activity, basically creating a plasma channel to help guide the lightning down to a spot where you want it to hit so it's not just randomly hitting someplace else.
Colin Price and his colleagues at Tel Aviv University studied data from 26 observation stations worldwide, comparing lightning activity to tropical
storm formation during the 2005 and 2006 hurricane seasons.
But sea surface temperatures across swaths of the Atlantic are currently above average and are expected to stay that way, and wind shear is also expected to stay low, both of which would tend to support
more storm formation.
While El Niño meant that winds across the
primary storm formation areas were hostile to burgeoning systems, tropical Atlantic waters warmed considerably through the summer.
Overall, I'm enclined to believe that GW is likely to decrease Atlantic hurricane formation rates slightly, while significantly
increasing storm formation rates in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
Sinking air
inhibits storm formation by causing air to become drier and more stable, thereby stunting the growth of thunderstorms that require moist, unstable air in order to thrive.
In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can
alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity.
El Niño, the large - scale weather pattern that creates strong wind shear in the upper levels of the atmosphere,
disrupts storm formation.
Where Julia formed hasn't seen much rain so this isn't a textbook example of the brown ocean effect, but the atmosphere was certainly primed
for storm formation.
The waters of the entire Caribbean and almost all of the Gulf of Mexico are above the 26 C (c. 80 F) threshold required for
tropical storm formation.
In addition, a recurring, dust - laden layer of air stretched out over the Atlantic from western Africa and kept a lid
on storm formation, preventing tall thunderheads from forming and becoming tropical systems.
To gauge the hurricane season, forecasters use various climatological clues, such as the state of the El Niño cycles, as well as expected trends in ocean temperatures and a measure called wind shear, which can cut off
storm formation.
The team studied storm development from the Pliocene era, roughly three million years ago, and chose that time period because it was the last time Earth had as much carbon dioxide as it does now, and the changes in climate from it can play a major role in
storm formation and intensity.
The team studied storm development from the Pliocene era, roughly three million years ago, and chose that time period because it was the last time the Earth had as much carbon dioxide as it does now, and the changes in climate from it can play a major role in
storm formation and intensity.
Second, the speed of atmospheric winds (not part of the hurricane) moving across the upper reaches of
the storm formation is low.
El Niño is the large - scale weather pattern that creates strong wind shear and disrupts
storm formation.
(While the Gulf's waters are very warm, a boon to hurricanes, the area's low humidity and high wind shear aren't conducive to
storm formation.)
The flurry of activity in the East Pacific is also linked to El Niño, which has the opposite effect there as in the Atlantic, tending to make winds more favorable to
storm formation and spiking ocean temperatures in some areas.
Some researchers talk about using proposed climate engineering technologies, such as those that might brighten marine clouds, or those that might increase the albedo of the earth's upper atmosphere by scattering a small amount of incoming sunlight using introduced aerosols, to steer or weaken storms, or to reduce the ingredients for the formation of these storms