Sentences with phrase «storm intensity forecasting»

Scientists working to improve storm intensity forecasting have identified a more accurate means of predicting a hurricane's strength as it approaches landfall, using sea temperature readings that they say will help forecasters better prepare communities for storm impacts in the face of sea - level rise caused by rising global temperatures.

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Not exact matches

The best historical analogue for a hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity forecast for Irma may be Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

The 2017 hurricane season has highlighted the critical need to communicate a storm's impact path and intensity accurately, but new research from the University of Utah shows significant misunderstandings of the two most commonly used storm forecast visualization methods.

Although a winter storm had been forecast, few were prepared for the intensity of the post-Christmas storm, which included a phenomenon known as thundersnow in some areas, shut down railways and left thousands stranded at airports across the region.

Powerful hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria are also providing a testing ground for new tools that scientists hope will save lives by improving forecasts in various ways, from narrowing a storm's future path to capturing swift changes in the intensity of storm winds.

Researchers still don't fully understand the small but important shifts in storm dynamics that trigger a tornado or hurricane, for instance, and they can't forecast a hurricane's intensity.

Recent advances have improved NOAA's intensity forecasts by 20 percent, but there are so many variables influencing the developing of a hurricane — from the energy they draw from the oceans to their interactions with the surrounding environment and their dynamic inner cores — that storms like Matthew befuddle many experts.

I'm going to go out on a limb and forecast a period of declining tropical storm intensity in the Atlantic basin over the next few decades, with another peak just in time for me to be dead and buried.

Hadley Centre climate forecasts are for more high - intensity storms in Britain as global warming intensifies — Scotland has just had the strongest storm in living memory this January, which subsequently hit Scandinavia after increasing its wind - speeds over the North Sea (so it's not just us, it seems).

Forecasting intensity, then and now, is more of a challenge than predicting the track, given the small - scale influences that can empower or weaken a storm.

In following the course of projections for this storm, and then the burst of criticism about failed intensity forecasts, I was brought back to the hours I spent with meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center in September, 2004, as they tracked the course of Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from Mobile).

Reconstructed centennial variability of Late Holocene storminess from Cors Fochno, Wales, UK Future anthropogenic climate forcing is forecast to increase storm intensity and frequency over Northern Europe, due to a northward shift of the storm tracks, and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation.

As for the Deepwater Horizon site, forecast wave heights are creeping up as well, as the storm will probably reach a peak intensity of 75 - 80 knots even if it stays on the southerly course.

The track and intensity of the storm was poorly forecast, but new research performed at the University of Manchester and in the United States at the National Weather Service's Ocean Prediction Center shows for the first time the mechanism that may cause the strong winds in these low - pressure systems.

But Franklin said that in contrast to track forecasts, predicting storm intensity requires knowing lots of small - scale details that computer models have trouble capturing, from the dynamics of a storm's structure to the characteristics of air masses being pulled into a storm's circulation.

But even with new technologies, it's unclear how much more accurate the forecasts will be, particularly when it comes to storm intensity, which has been a stubborn riddle for meteorologists to solve.