Sentences with phrase «storm track forecast»

During the period from 2003 to 2008, the average storm track forecast had an error that was down to less than 200 miles at 72 hours, and less than 100 miles at 48 hours.

Not exact matches

The best historical analogue for a hurricane that follows NHC's 5 pm EDT Friday track and intensity forecast for Irma may be Hurricane Donna of 1960, which tore through the Florida Keys just northeast of Marathon as a Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds.

But she also warned that spending cuts enacted by Congress threaten NOAA's ability to produce detailed hurricane forecasts and track storms in the future.

Snow forecasts are dependent upon the strength and track of winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than a week in advance.

On the evening of May 4, 2007, at around 7:30 p.m., a young forecast meteorologist named Mike Umscheid began tracking a storm in northern Oklahoma.

NOAA will forecast storm tracks to manoeuvre gliders into position beforehand, giving them the best chance to make real - time observations.

The mapping program works by starting with the NHC's initial forecast of the storm's most probable track.

-- Kerry Emanuel, who has been studying hurricanes and climate change for decades, has a great page on his Web site at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology consolidating the many competing computer model runs aiming to forecast the strength and track of tropical storms.

In the meantime, keep a weather eye on the Web site of the National Hurricane Center and Kerry Emanuel's page at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, which collects a variety of forecasts of storm strengths and tracks.

Forecasting intensity, then and now, is more of a challenge than predicting the track, given the small - scale influences that can empower or weaken a storm.

In following the course of projections for this storm, and then the burst of criticism about failed intensity forecasts, I was brought back to the hours I spent with meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center in September, 2004, as they tracked the course of Hurricane Ivan (shortly before I headed to Alabama to cover its landfall as a major hurricane; here's a narrated report I filed from Mobile).

For example, a storm embedded in a confluent large - scale flow (i.e. one whose streamlines tend to converge) will generally have less directional track forecast uncertainty, though the timing of the progress of the storm along its track may suffer.

There is a considerably degree of chance (upwards of 80 % of the variance) in these statistical relationships owing to the random nature of storm counts and to the contingency of landfall given tracks that often parallel Florida and the eastern seaboard with Irene's forecast a relevant case in point.

1:01 p.m. Various updates below With the tropical storm that will soon be Hurricane Isaac heading in the general direction of New Orleans seven years (possibly to the day) after Hurricane Katrina topped the flood protections there, I looked back at the archived track forecasts for the 2005 storm and posted the link on Twitter and Facebook.

The hurricane / typhoon forecasts currently predict pretty well the future track of the storms for some 3 days ahead.

Reconstructed centennial variability of Late Holocene storminess from Cors Fochno, Wales, UK Future anthropogenic climate forcing is forecast to increase storm intensity and frequency over Northern Europe, due to a northward shift of the storm tracks, and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation.

Why did models differ so greatly in forecasting Sandy's storm track?

Model runs with failed forecasts underestimated the strength of the subtropical high - pressure systems east of the storm track that had kept Sandy from harmlessly veering into the Atlantic.

But the forecast tracks showed Harvey's center dawdling after landfall, and many computer models predicted enormous rainfall totals for large areas on and near the coast — including Houston — as they envisioned the storm lingering into the middle of this week.

The track and intensity of the storm was poorly forecast, but new research performed at the University of Manchester and in the United States at the National Weather Service's Ocean Prediction Center shows for the first time the mechanism that may cause the strong winds in these low - pressure systems.

The track forecasts from various computer models are packed tightly together, signifying high confidence in the storm's course.

The difference between a huge impact for NYC and what actually happened was a difference of about 25 km in the storm track, which is not a level of accuracy that you can expect from a weather forecast model.

To forecast the track that a tropical storm or hurricane will take, forecasters need to know how the large - scale weather pattern will evolve over a particular period of time.

But Franklin said that in contrast to track forecasts, predicting storm intensity requires knowing lots of small - scale details that computer models have trouble capturing, from the dynamics of a storm's structure to the characteristics of air masses being pulled into a storm's circulation.

Seasonal forecast models, including the CFS, are depicting strong and persistent cyclonic anomalies and a southward - shifted storm track over the northeastern Pacific this winter.

Further evidence comes from ocean - atmosphere model forecasts, which suggest a profound deepening of the Gulf of Alaska low this winter along with a greatly enhanced and southerly - shifted storm track over the Eastern Pacific.

There are those who say that the models do an adequate job on circulation, but just watch the weather channel for how far ahead we can forecast a storm track.

... if this storm points to a failure, it's really a failure not of the specific forecast, but of the format and language that is used to communicate all forecasts, an approach that fails to clearly spell out uncertainties and the difficulty of picking one of a number of potential storm tracks.

The technique was originally developed to examine the storm tracks produced by atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), but it is directly applicable to other gridded SLP datasets, such as those derived in weather forecasts or reanalysis projects.

By deriving detailed meaning and clarity from new instrument technologies, we have improved weather forecasting, severe storm tracking for hurricanes and understanding of the Earth's climate and advanced meteorological research.