Zonal mean atmospheric temperature change from 1890 to 1999 (°C per century) as simulated by the PCM model from (a) solar forcing, (b) volcanoes, (c) wellmixed greenhouse gases, (d) tropospheric and
stratospheric ozone changes, (e) direct sulphate aerosol forcing and (f) the sum of all forcings.
We have discussed this issue time and again in our own work, and Keith Briffa, Malcolm Hughes, and many others have published on this, w / competing possible explanations (
stratospheric ozone changes, incidentally, is the least plausible to me of multiple competing, more plausible explanations that have been published).
6.6.1 Effects of
Stratospheric Ozone Changes on Radiatively Active Species 6.6.2 Indirect Forcings of Methane, Carbon Monoxide and Non-Methane Hydrocarbons 6.6.3 Indirect Forcing by NOx Emissions 6.6.4 Stratospheric Water Vapour
Temperature observations will also be studied and interpreted in a more integrated manner, in order to better understand the linkages of
stratospheric ozone changes to surface climate.
Several models also include effects of tropospheric and
stratospheric ozone changes.
«We use 1280 years of control simulation, with constant preindustrial forcings including constant specified CO2, and a five - member ensemble of historical simulations from 1850 — 2005 including prescribed historical greenhouse gas concentrations, SO2 and other aerosol - precursor emissions, land use changes, solar irradiance changes, tropospheric and
stratospheric ozone changes, and volcanic aerosol (ALL), following the recommended CMIP5 specifications.
Not exact matches
There is also growing understanding of the links between atmospheric problems such as local air pollution, acid rain, global climate
change and
stratospheric ozone depletion.
There are multiple anthropogenic forcings that have quite different impacts (e.g. anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases, aerosols, land - use
changes and, yes,
stratospheric ozone depletion).
Stratospheric cooling as a result of excess CO2 does influence
ozone recovery, and
ozone changes in the troposphere and stratosphere to have effects on radiative balance of the planet.
However,
ozone reponses to climate
changes are quite sensitive to the initial base state (how much
stratospheric water vapour was there?
How does this relate generally to
stratospheric cooling over recent decades and the apparent positive feedback whereby
ozone loss causes further cooling which leads to further ozone loss... Here's a good overview news feature Ozone And Climate Change from the Earth Observatory at
ozone loss causes further cooling which leads to further
ozone loss... Here's a good overview news feature Ozone And Climate Change from the Earth Observatory at
ozone loss... Here's a good overview news feature
Ozone And Climate Change from the Earth Observatory at
Ozone And Climate
Change from the Earth Observatory at NASA.
There are a large number of recent peer - reviewed scientific publications demonstrating how solar activity can affect our climate (Benestad, 2002), such as how
changes in the UV radiation following the solar activity affect the
stratospheric ozone concentrations (1999) and how earth's temperatures respond to
changes in the total solar irradiance (Meehl, 2003).
While it is true that
changing stratospheric ozone levels do impact the planets radiative balance (and vica versa) it is a 2nd order issue and global warming and
ozone depletion should be viewed as two separate issues.
Now that
ozone depletion is likely to stabilise, the
changes in the future will also likely be dominated by the CO2 (and possibly
stratospheric H2O)
changes.
However,
ozone reponses to climate
changes are quite sensitive to the initial base state (how much
stratospheric water vapour was there?
How does this relate generally to
stratospheric cooling over recent decades and the apparent positive feedback whereby
ozone loss causes further cooling which leads to further ozone loss... Here's a good overview news feature Ozone And Climate Change from the Earth Observatory at
ozone loss causes further cooling which leads to further
ozone loss... Here's a good overview news feature Ozone And Climate Change from the Earth Observatory at
ozone loss... Here's a good overview news feature
Ozone And Climate Change from the Earth Observatory at
Ozone And Climate
Change from the Earth Observatory at NASA.
A further consideration is
changes in
stratospheric ozone in the tropics.
Remember, too, that
ozone changes are part of the observed
stratospheric cooling.
When we consider that the average
Ozone change between 1950 and 2000 in was approximately 280 Dobson units we have another contributor to the reduction in the
Stratospheric temperatures that are missing from your strawman.
There is a progression of global impacts from the loss of
stratospheric ozone, to decling global fish stocks, to loss of topsoil and now global climate
change.
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced» by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from
stratospheric water vapor;
stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than
stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent,
changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused by
stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a
change is distributed, and it would even be possible for
stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
As to the specific papers you cited, Miller et al 2006 states,» Recent
changes in the magnitude of the annular patterns have been interpreted as the signature of anthropogenic forcing by
changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) or else
stratospheric ozone [Shindell et al., 1999; Fyfe et al., 1999; Kushner et al., 2001; Kindem and Christiansen, 2001; Sexton, 2001; Gillett and Thompson, 2003; Shindell and Schmidt, 2004; Arblaster and Meehl, 2006].»
He is an internationally recognised expert in climate
change and climate variability, including greenhouse climate
change,
stratospheric ozone depletion and interannual climate variations due to El Niño - Southern Oscillation.
Abrupt climate
change, clouds, ocean currents,
stratospheric ozone, sun cumulative energy outputs, etc., nothing new dampens your enthusiasm for hammering what should have been true, into collectable pieces.
The three different
ozone databases yield
changes in tropical lower
stratospheric temperatures that differ by more than a factor of two at 70 mbar, although all have qualitatively similar seasonal cycles.
Three different
ozone databases provide regression fits to the
ozone observations, and are available for use in model studies of the influence of
ozone changes on
stratospheric and tropospheric temperatures.
Citation: Solomon, S., P. J. Young, and B. Hassler (2012), Uncertainties in the evolution of
stratospheric ozone and implications for recent temperature
changes in the tropical lower stratosphere, Geophys.
Pitari, G., E. Mancini, V. Rizi, and D. Shindell, 2002: Feedback of future climate and sulfur emission
changes an
stratospheric aerosols and
ozone, J. Atmos.
Ozone plays a key role in such
stratospheric climate
change, but other physical factors play important roles as well.
The potential effects that aviation has had in the past and may have in the future on both
stratospheric ozone depletion and global climate
change are covered; environmental impacts of aviation at the local scale, however, are not addressed.
We determine its likely evolution for three intergovernmental panel on climate
change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) for austral summer and winter, using a multi-model ensemble of IPCC fourth assessment report models which resolve
stratospheric ozone recovery.
Current research combines the climate and chemistry
changes in the GISS model to predict future
stratospheric ozone amounts both over the polar regions and at lower latitudes.
The number of particles that form, and therefore the amount of chemical
ozone destruction, is extremely sensitive to small
changes in
stratospheric temperature.
Now Eli might think that the IPCC had an information monopoly if he had not read many other reports from such as the US Global
Change Research Program and he might think that the IPCC was unique, if he were not aware of such as the WMO / UNEP Science Assessment Panel on
Stratospheric Ozone.
Non-annular atmospheric circulation
change induced by
stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent.
As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the
stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of
stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate
Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to
changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.
Turner, J. et al (2009) Non-annular atmospheric circulation
change induced by
stratospheric ozone depletion and its role in the recent increase of Antarctic sea ice extent.
«Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a potent greenhouse gas that contributes to climate
change and
stratospheric ozone destruction.
The
change in total solar irradiance over recent 11 - year sunspot cycles amounts to < 0.1 %, but greater
changes at ultraviolet wavelengths may have substantial impacts on
stratospheric ozone concentrations, thereby altering both
stratospheric and tropospheric circulation patterns... This model prediction is supported by paleoclimatic proxy reconstructions over the past millennium.
States that several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including
stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea - ice loss, an increase in westerly winds, and
changes in the strength and location of low — high - latitude atmospheric teleconnections
These include the influences of a
changing climate, altered air mixing and transport rates, energy exchange, and
changes in the composition of the atmosphere (e.g., water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide, aerosols, etc.), all of which can influence
stratospheric ozone.
The scientific goal is to determine and interpret trends in global
stratospheric ozone, the Antarctic
ozone hole, and global atmospheric
ozone depleting substances; to investigate these trends for signs of recovery of the
ozone layer and evaluate implications for climate
change; and to study the efficacy of newly proposed substitutes for currently used
ozone - depleting substances.
It is emphasized, however, that not all aspects of the SH climate response to
stratospheric ozone forcing can be understood in terms of
changes in the midlatitude jet.
Baray, H. Bencherif, H. Claude, A. G. di Sarra, i G. Fiocco, G. Hansen, A. Hauchecorne, T. Leblanc, Choo Hie Lee, S. Pal, G. Megie, H. Nakane, R. Neuber, W. Steinbrechth, and J. Thayer, Review of
ozone and temperature lidar validations performed within the framework of the Network for the Detection of
Stratospheric Change, J.
Full chemistry - climate model simulations (Lamarque et al. 2011) indicate that climate
change is an important additional component in the evolution of
stratospheric ozone.
Long - term trends in the upper atmosphere - ionosphere are a complex problem due to simultaneous presence of several drivers of trends, which behave in a different way: increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, long - term
changes of geomagnetic and solar activity, secular
change of the Earth's main magnetic field, remarkable long - term
changes of
stratospheric ozone concentration, and very probably long - term
changes of atmospheric dynamics, particularly of atmospheric wave activity (Lastovicka 2009; Qian et al. 2011; Lastovicka et al. 2012).
Whereas CO2 concentration is quasi-steadily increasing, other drivers
change their trends with time even to opposite (solar and geomagnetic activity,
stratospheric ozone), or
change trends with location (Earth's main magnetic field), or with latitude (geomagnetic activity), or are largely unknown but probably unstable in space and time (atmospheric winds and waves).
Dr. (h.c) Bill Hare, CEO and Managing Director / Senior Scientist Co-founder of Climate Analytics, physicist and climate scientist with 25 years» experience in science, impacts and policy responses to climate
change and
stratospheric ozone depletion.
He is a physicist with three decades of experience in the science, impacts and policy responses to climate
change and
stratospheric ozone depletion.
Possible correlations between solar ultraviolet variability and climate
change have previously been explained in terms of
changes in
ozone heating influencing
stratospheric weather.