That agrees remarkably well with the roughly 15 % increase the researchers had predicted based on the known decline in
stratospheric ozone levels measured since 1978 in Lauder.
Although the amount of UV radiation reaching the snow surface at Summit is notably influenced
by stratospheric ozone levels, the UV measurement time series available in the Arctic is not yet long enough to allow trends to be detected.
As well as human influences, Novelli points out that the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 may be responsible for a recent decrease
in stratospheric ozone levels.
This is why scientists concluded that
stratospheric ozone levels would not fully recover for quite sometime after the ban on production and consumption of CFC's Montreal Protocol was reached in 1996.