The stratopsheric cooling may be caused by the tropospheric
water vapor (see figure 3 of http://www.springerlink.com/content/6677gr5lx8421105/fulltext.pdf)-- but in that figure
water vapor is fixed only above sigma = 0.14 (~ 140 hPa), so the cooling may
also be caused by the increase in lower
stratospheric water vapor.
First, for changing just CO2 forcing (or CH4, etc, or for a non-GHE forcing, such as a change in incident solar radiation, volcanic aerosols, etc.), there will be other GHE radiative «forcings» (feedbacks, though in the context of measuring their radiative effect, they can be described as having radiative forcings of x W / m2 per change in surface T), such as
water vapor feedback, LW cloud feedback, and
also, because GHE depends on the vertical temperature distribution, the lapse rate feedback (this generally refers to the tropospheric lapse rate, though changes in the position of the tropopause and changes in the
stratospheric temperature could
also be considered lapse - rate feedbacks for forcing at TOA; forcing at the tropopause with
stratospheric adjustment takes some of that into account; sensitivity to forcing at the tropopause with
stratospheric adjustment will generally be different from sensitivity to forcing without
stratospheric adjustment and both will generally be different from forcing at TOA before
stratospheric adjustment; forcing at TOA after stratospehric adjustment is identical to forcing at the tropopause after
stratospheric adjustment).
Others argue that a plethora of recent small volcanoes, changes in
stratospheric water vapor, and a downturn in solar energy reaching the Earth may
also be contributing to the slow - down.
The use of
water vapor is
also misleading — the findings of Solomon did not include any claim that
stratospheric water vapor was unrelated to the concentration of other GHGs, only that it had declined recently (perhaps) for unknown reasons.