The forcing due to reduced amounts of long lived GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O) was -3 ± 0.5 W / m2, with the indirect effects of CH4 on tropospheric ozone and
stratospheric water vapor included (fig.
Not exact matches
When it was first observed a few years ago, there were lots of theories —
including things like
stratospheric water vapor, solar cycles,
stratospheric aerosol forcing.
Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to
include smaller volcanos,
stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of heat to the deeper ocean (where changes in heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..
A second factor is Polar
Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) that form when gases
including water vapor sublimate directly to crystals because of the intensely low temperatures -LRB--70 °C and below) and pressures over the South Pole.
These
include the influences of a changing climate, altered air mixing and transport rates, energy exchange, and changes in the composition of the atmosphere (e.g.,
water vapor, methane, nitrous oxide, aerosols, etc.), all of which can influence
stratospheric ozone.
Alternatively, expanding the list of forcings to
include recent changes in
stratospheric water vapor (6) may account for the recent lack of warming.
These findings are not sensitive to a wide range of assumptions,
including the time series used to measure temperature, the omission of black carbon and
stratospheric water vapor, and uncertainty about anthropogenic sulfur emissions and its effect on radiative forcing (SI Appendix: Sections 2.4 — 7).
The use of
water vapor is also misleading — the findings of Solomon did not
include any claim that
stratospheric water vapor was unrelated to the concentration of other GHGs, only that it had declined recently (perhaps) for unknown reasons.
Together, these results suggest that
stratospheric water vapor (and black carbon) does not have a statistically significant effect on surface temperature relative to the forcings
included in the statistical model.
This modell shurely will not
include the new findings of Susan Solomon regarding
stratospheric water vapor and it's influence to global temperatures.