That this cycle coincides with
the strongest warming period in the same 100 years.
Well the devil is in the details — further, if we are to be convinced by the AR5 attribution of what is essentially
a strong warming period of 30 years, then unexplained periods temperature variability of 30 years are significant.
Not exact matches
While a 16 - year -
period is too short a time to draw conclusions about trends, the researchers found that
warming continued at most locations on the planet and during much of the year, but that
warming was offset by
strong cooling during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.
«Looking at weather and dengue incidents over longer
periods, we found a similar
strong link between how increased rainfall and
warmer temperatures resulting from the reoccurring el Niño phenomenon are associated with elevated risks of dengue epidemics.
Using climate models to understand the physical processes that were at play during the glacial
periods, the team were able to show that a gradual rise in CO2 strengthened the trade winds across Central America by inducing an El Nino - like
warming pattern with
stronger warming in the East Pacific than the Western Atlantic.
«There seems to be a limit on how
strong these ancient storms might be, but the number getting close to the limit appears to be larger during
warmer periods,» Korty explains.
When the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is in a decadal
warm period, summer monsoon rainfall is
stronger in the Yangtze River valley but weaker in North China.
For the late 20th century, a
period of
strong greenhouse gas increases, but with diminishing solar influence, variability in ocean
warming shown in the profiles falls much further still.
The trend in more cold extremes was
strongest during the
period since pronounced Arctic
warming emerged, or about the last 25 years, which lends at least some support to the possibility that that
warming is helping fuel the trend, Shepherd said.
In 1975 a
strong warming trend began and in 1988 James Hansen went to Congress and made a big deal about a
warming period of just 13 years.
In contrast, the
warming during the most recent
period, often used as evidence of human induced climate change, is characterized by temperature moderation — the pattern of temperature rise exhibits a
strong, preferential
warming of the coldest days of the year.
In 1880 — 1919, before the appearance of the
strong warming trend over this region, WEIO tended to be anomalously colder than EEIO most of the time, and thus we see the
strong negative events show in Fig. 4, since we have used the climatology of the entire
period from 1880 to 2004 as the reference.
In the case of this summer, to make it familiar, the NE North American Coast and most of Canada is cooler by extensive
periods of cloud coverage, cooling caused by this region clashes with the US South extreme heat, given less bouts of clouds up North, the North American
warming record would have been amazingly
strong, but permanent cloud episodes over one region or another travel, never last forever, as such not causing a permanent shift in the temperature record (unless the clouds cover or not wide swats of the Polar regions).
Except for the early 1930s, the
periods with
strong El Nino were
warmest of record at climate stations in the Midwest (
periods based on 5 year annual moving averages).
To plan for
warming in the face of
strong science for cooling is a huge risk as it is the cooler
periods that are the most difficult to navigate.
That we can get a 10 - or even 15 - year
period with no real change in globally averaged temperature even though in the end we have
strong global
warming.
That the noise of natural variability can temporarily be
strong enough to make the underlying
warming signal seem to «disappear» for short
periods is nothing new.
And surely the fact that having just that circumstance — with
strong el Nino at the start of the cherry picked
period and la Nina's at the tail — should see a clear temperature «drop» instead of merely levelling off confirms the existence of an underlying
warming trend.
# 92 Spencer el al 2007 paper doesn't really support the precise mechanism proposed by Lindzen for Iris effect, but more simply observes a
strong TOA negative correction associated with
warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005
period of observation, the most significative
warming episodes of the surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere).
... but more simply observes a
strong TOA negative correction associated with
warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005
period of observation, the most significative
warming episodes of the surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere).
Our study is not about range change, but about a 10-fold increase in a key predator that is a native but has increased dramatically in abundance during a
period of
strong warming.
Over short
periods they certainly do that but over
periods of few decades it's likely that the
warming effect of CO2 is
stronger.
Not only that, but they give it power over El Nino by pontificating that «Pinatubo climate forcing was
stronger than the opposite
warming effects of either the El Nino event or anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the
period 1991 - 93.»
On global temperature trends, one thing to note is that the 1997 - 2001
period was one of a
strong La Nina (cool) followed by a
strong El Nino (
warm) followed by a
strong La Nina (cool).
Notice how the
strong «Medieval
Warm Period» around 1000 A.D. in the Esper et al. version contradicts the «Medieval Cold
Period» of the Briffa et al., version.
Study: Ammonium as ice core proxy shows
strong Medieval
Warm Period in the tropics.
«It is generally accepted that the climate
warms during
periods of
strong solar activity (e.g., the Medieval
Warm Period) and cools during
periods of low solar activity (e.g., the Little Ice Age).»
how can a Sun that has constant TSI (averaged over a solar cycle) during 1950 - 2000 play any role in the global
warming that was at its
strongest over that
period
Certainly, but whether high or low, if the Sun is going to influence global
warming then how can a Sun that has constant TSI (averaged over a solar cycle) during 1950 - 2000 play any role in the global
warming that was at its
strongest over that
period?
It IS thought that these
warm periods at the PEAK of the oscillation will be TURBULENT with altering
STRONG weather patterning.
These provide
strong contextual confirmation supporting CET on the Medieval
Warming period, Little Ice Age etc..
If you have an alternative widely accepted dataset that (a) covers the
period 1860 - 1950 and (b) an alternative description of it that does not entail as
strong a rise over that
period as HadCRUT3 does I'd happy to evaluate your claim that global
warming is not happening based on your dataset and analysis.
I pointed out to TCW that, contrary to her claim that «there has been no overall shift in temperature in 18 years», Jo Nova's graph showed a particularly
strong warming trend in that
period.
However, this effect seems not to be
strong enough to prevent CO2 rising during a
warm period in the ice ages.
Hard data trends in radiative flux — trends that are internally consistent, consistent across platforms and consistent with surface observations of cloud in the Pacific — show
strong warming in the SW and cooling in UV in the
period in question.
«It is well known that
strong to violent tornado activity in the US has decreased markedly since statistics began in the 1950s, which has also been a
period of average
warming.
This does not invalidate the evidence as the overall
warming happened to be
strong enough to be difficult to explain without AGW, but equally well it might have happened that the natural variability and AGW would have largely canceled each other leading to total lack of evidence for AGW over that
period.
We will likely experience
periods of
strong hurricanes in the future, but any attempt to attribute hurricanes to global
warming should be looked at with a jaundiced eye.
«Those natural climate variations could be
stronger than the global -
warming trend over the next 10 - year
period,» Wood said in an interview.
«We evaluate to what extent the temperature rise in the past 100 years was a trend or a natural fluctuation and analyze 2249 worldwide monthly temperature records from GISS (NASA) with the 100 - year
period covering 1906 - 2005 and the two 50 - year
periods from 1906 to 1955 and 1956 to 2005... The data document a
strong urban heat island eff ect (UHI) and a
warming with increasing station elevation... About a quarter of all the records for the 100 - year
period show a fall in temperatures... that the observed temperature records are a combination of long - term correlated records with an additional trend, which is caused for instance by anthropogenic CO2, the UHI or other forcings... As a result, the probabilities that the observed temperature series are natural have values roughly between 40 % and 90 %, depending on the stations characteristics and the
periods considered.»
It's, however, equally wrong to claim that this
period is
strong evidence against AGW or against the expectation that in longer term the
warming will continue.
«causes of the earlier
warming are less clear since this
period precedes the time of
strongest increases in human - induced greenhouse gas (radiative) forcing.»
The last thirty years should have been the
period of
strongest warming from anthro CO2 forcing.
While the latter
warming is often attributed to a human - induced increase of greenhouse gases, causes of the earlier
warming are less clear since this
period precedes the time of
strongest increases in human - induced greenhouse gas (radiative) forcing.»
A number of recent studies have found a
strong link between peak human - induced global
warming and cumulative carbon emissions from the start of the industrial revolution, while the link to emissions over shorter
periods or in the years 2020 or 2050 is generally weaker.
This data seems to suggest modern
warming stronger than that seen in the medieval
periods displayed (see figure 2): «Ensemble reconstruction constraints on the global carbon cycle sensitivity to climate»
Our results indicated that vegetation greenness in the Great Basin increased significantly during the study
period... [C] limate
warming played a
strong role in extending GSL [growing season length] that in turn resulted in the upward trend in mean vegetation greenness during 1982 — 2011.
-- During this
period we have observed a
strong,
warm El Niño trend, culminating with the super El Niño of 1997/1998, which led to the all - time
warmest year of the modern record.
Likewise, the
strong warming over the 1980s / 1990s correlates with frequent and
strong El Niño during that
period.
This is a concern as it means each time we have a
warming period to reach a new and probably higher level of global mean temperature, the AGW scam will get
stronger and
stronger.