Sentences with phrase «subjective probability distributions»

«Not having broad enough spread» only makes sense if the ensemble of best guesses understates some variability that you'd get if you asked each team to contribute a few additional runs that were representative of their subjective probability distributions.

How exactly a consensus was reached regarding subjective probability distributions needs to be documented.

Not exact matches

But your statement: «Given that, it's easy to see why a subjective Bayesian method will usually NOT produce perfect probability matching when averaging over a distribution for true parameter values that is different from the prior it uses» reveals a major problem.

In fact, most subjective Bayesians would never use a uniform prior for an unbounded quantity, since this does not correspond to any actual, proper probability distribution.