Sentences with phrase «subsequent market returns across»

On the measures we find most tightly correlated with actual subsequent market returns across history, the S&P 500 is now between 150 % and 170 % above valuation norms that have been approached or breached over the completion of every market cycle in history, including the most recent one.

Not exact matches

MarketCap / GVA is better correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns than price / forward earnings, the Fed Model, the Shiller P / E, price / book, price / dividend, Tobin's Q, market capitalization to GDP, price / revenue and every other valuation ratio we've developed or examined in market cycles across history.

We find that in market cycles across history, this new measure is better correlated (92 %) with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns than even the S&P 500 price / revenue ratio and market capitalization / nominal GDP.

Among the valuation measures most tightly correlated across history with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns, the ratio of market capitalization to corporate gross value added would now have to retreat by nearly 60 % simply to reach its pre-bubble average.

Last week, the U.S. equity market climbed to the steepest valuation level in history, based on the valuation measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10 - 12 year total returns, across a century of market cycles.

Indeed, even Robert Shiller's cyclically - adjusted P / E (CAPE) is much better correlated with actual subsequent market returns, across a century of market cycles, when we account for the profit margin embedded in the 10 - year average of earnings.

While other historically reliable metrics carry a very similar message, Market Cap / GVA has the highest correlation with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns than any other valuation ratio we've examined across history.

Don't criticize historically reliable valuation measures that have maintained the same tight relationship with actual subsequent 10 - 12 year market returns that they've demonstrated across a century of history.

Our perspective is straightforward: on the basis of measures that have been reliably correlated with actual subsequent market returns in market cycles across a century of data, we estimate that the S&P 500 Index will be no higher a decade from now than it is today.

While other historically reliable metrics carry a very similar message, Market Cap / GVA has the highest correlation with actual subsequent 10 - year S&P 500 total returns than any other valuation ratio we've examined across history.