Sentences with phrase «subsequent returns compared»

Generally, just as in the case of factors, we see that aggregate valuation is a slightly better predictor of subsequent returns compared to P / B, but both show quite strong predictability.

Not exact matches

On the basis of valuation measures most tightly related to actual subsequent long - term market returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the total return just over zero on that horizon.

In case one wishes to discard the record before 1980 from the analysis, it's worth noting that since 1980, the correlation of the FedModel with subsequent S&P 500 total returns has been just 27 %, compared with an average correlation of 90 % for the other models since 1980.

Each percentage point of unemployment rate translates into 78 basis points (bps) of stock market excess return compared to cash for each year, on average, of the subsequent two years; in other words, each 1 % jump in unemployment is associated with 1.56 % of incremental stock market return over the two - year period.

He uses Tobin's Q to value a market and compares past valuations with subsequent returns using a hindsight value (the average of the returns over the next 1 to 30 years).