Sentences with phrase «subsequent returns on»

But these don't explain away or eliminate the strong cyclical relationship between the gold / XAU ratio and subsequent returns on the XAU over the following 3 - 4 year periods.

A reminder on interest rate front - it's essential to recognize that if one believes depressed interest rates «justify» extremely rich equity valuations, what one is really saying is that depressed interest rates «justify» dismal subsequent returns on stocks.

Note that the right scale on the following chart is inverted, so higher levels of valuation on the left scale (blue line) correspond to weaker levels of subsequent return on the right scale (red line).

Not exact matches

Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition in key markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result in higher production costs and lower margins; our ability to lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the economic and political uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up of production of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their favorable perception of our brand and products, resulting in lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall of our products; ongoing uncertainty in global economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods of significant stock price volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization of products under development, such as our pipeline of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.

The blue line shows the same 10 year treasury yield from the WSJ chart, while the red line shows the subsequent one year total return on the 10 year bond.

Moderate interest rates were associated with a whole range of subsequent returns over the following decade, and we know that those outcomes were 90 % correlated with the level of valuations at the beginning of those periods (on reliable measures such as market cap / GDP, price / revenue, Tobin's Q, the margin - adjusted Shiller P / E, and others we've presented over time - see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle).

Since 1999 the US financial world has had two 30 % + drops in the stock market (the «risk») and for those who did not panic and sell, a subsequent market recovery has generated an 8 % annualized return on equities even including the two spectacular drops.

Along with the steepest equity valuations in U.S. history outside of 1929 and 2000 (on measures that are actually reliably correlated with subsequent market returns), private and public debt burdens have reached the most extreme levels in history.

When you look back on this moment in history, remember that rich valuations had not only been associated with low subsequent market returns, but also with magnified risk of deep interim price losses over shorter horizons.

As a result, starting valuations, on historically reliable measures, are 90 % correlated with actual subsequent 10 - year total market returns.

The following chart shows the same data on an inverted log scale (blue line, left), along with the actual subsequent 12 - year nominal average annual total return of the S&P 500 Index (red line, right).

At this point, obscene equity valuations are already baked in the cake on valuation measures that are reliably correlated with actual subsequent stock market returns.

Last week, the U.S. equity market climbed to the steepest valuation level in history, based on the valuation measures most highly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 10 - 12 year total returns, across a century of market cycles.

The chart below shows the relationship between the Margin - Adjusted CAPE, on an inverted log scale, and actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns, in data since the 1920's.

It shows someone who retired in the mid-1990s could expect to receive a 10 percent rate of return on their Canada Pension Plan contributions, but late boomers, Gen - Xers and subsequent generations can expect a rate of return closer to 2 percent.

Actual results may vary materially from those expressed or implied by forward - looking statements based on a number of factors, including, without limitation: (1) risks related to the consummation of the Merger, including the risks that (a) the Merger may not be consummated within the anticipated time period, or at all, (b) the parties may fail to obtain shareholder approval of the Merger Agreement, (c) the parties may fail to secure the termination or expiration of any waiting period applicable under the HSR Act, (d) other conditions to the consummation of the Merger under the Merger Agreement may not be satisfied, (e) all or part of Arby's financing may not become available, and (f) the significant limitations on remedies contained in the Merger Agreement may limit or entirely prevent BWW from specifically enforcing Arby's obligations under the Merger Agreement or recovering damages for any breach by Arby's; (2) the effects that any termination of the Merger Agreement may have on BWW or its business, including the risks that (a) BWW's stock price may decline significantly if the Merger is not completed, (b) the Merger Agreement may be terminated in circumstances requiring BWW to pay Arby's a termination fee of $ 74 million, or (c) the circumstances of the termination, including the possible imposition of a 12 - month tail period during which the termination fee could be payable upon certain subsequent transactions, may have a chilling effect on alternatives to the Merger; (3) the effects that the announcement or pendency of the Merger may have on BWW and its business, including the risks that as a result (a) BWW's business, operating results or stock price may suffer, (b) BWW's current plans and operations may be disrupted, (c) BWW's ability to retain or recruit key employees may be adversely affected, (d) BWW's business relationships (including, customers, franchisees and suppliers) may be adversely affected, or (e) BWW's management's or employees» attention may be diverted from other important matters; (4) the effect of limitations that the Merger Agreement places on BWW's ability to operate its business, return capital to shareholders or engage in alternative transactions; (5) the nature, cost and outcome of pending and future litigation and other legal proceedings, including any such proceedings related to the Merger and instituted against BWW and others; (6) the risk that the Merger and related transactions may involve unexpected costs, liabilities or delays; (7) other economic, business, competitive, legal, regulatory, and / or tax factors; and (8) other factors described under the heading «Risk Factors» in Part I, Item 1A of BWW's Annual Report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2016, as updated or supplemented by subsequent reports that BWW has filed or files with the SEC.

The most reliable measures of individual stock valuation we've found are based on formal discounted cash flow considerations, but among publicly - available measures we've evaluated, price / revenue ratios are better correlated with actual subsequent returns than price / earnings ratios (though normalized profit margins and other factors are obviously necessary to make cross-sectional comparisons).

Our perspective is straightforward: on the basis of measures that have been reliably correlated with actual subsequent market returns in market cycles across a century of data, we estimate that the S&P 500 Index will be no higher a decade from now than it is today.

That's fairly close to our own estimate of about 2.4 % based on a broad range of alternative measures that are highly correlated with actual subsequent market returns.

On the basis of the most reliable valuation measures we identify (those most tightly correlated with actual subsequent 10 - 12 year S&P 500 total returns), current market valuations stand about 140 - 165 % above historical norms.

The chart below shows this relationship using market capitalization to corporate gross value added (blue, on an inverted log scale) versus actual subsequent 12 - year S&P 500 nominal total returns (red).

Here's a chart from a recent Weekly Market Comment showing the projections for 10 - year annual total returns on the S&P 500 versus actual subsequent 10 - year total returns:

On a wide range of historically reliable measures (having a nearly 90 % correlation with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns), we estimate current valuations to be fully 118 % above levels associated with historically normal subsequent returns in stocks.

Based on the valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent total returns (and those correlations are near or above 90 %), we continue to estimate that the S&P 500 will achieve zero or negative nominal total returns over horizons of 8 years or less, and only about 2 % annually over the coming decade.

On valuation measures most reliably correlated with actual subsequent market returns (a test that is never imposed on popular measures), current valuations now exceed 1929 levelOn valuation measures most reliably correlated with actual subsequent market returns (a test that is never imposed on popular measures), current valuations now exceed 1929 levelon popular measures), current valuations now exceed 1929 levels.

On valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns, we presently expect negative total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (chartOn valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 nominal total returns, we presently expect negative total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (charton a 10 - year horizon, and total returns averaging only about 1 % annually over the coming 12 - year period (chart).

Technical features were selected by the authors based on the following claims: • Stocks with high (low) returns over periods of three to 12 months continue to have high (low) returns over subsequent three to 12 month periods.

On the basis of valuation measures most tightly related to actual subsequent long - term market returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the total return just over zero on that horizoOn the basis of valuation measures most tightly related to actual subsequent long - term market returns, we also estimate that the S&P 500 is likely to be lower 12 years from now, compared with current levels, though dividend income may push the total return just over zero on that horizoon that horizon.

Looking back through history, whenever value stocks have gotten this cheap, subsequent long - term returns have generally been strong.3 From current depressed valuation levels, value stocks have in the past, on average, doubled over the next five years.4 Not that we necessarily expect returns of this magnitude this time around, but based on the data and our six decades of experience investing through various market cycles, we believe the current risk / reward proposition is heavily skewed in favor of long - term value investors.

President Donald Trump's trade representative racked up a hefty bill on the purchase and subsequent return of a new desk for his office, emails reviewed by ABC News show.

On a subsequent day, the student may return to play only if they have been evaluated and received written clearance from a licensed health care provider trained in the evaluation and management of concussions and head injuries.

They may return to play or practice on a subsequent day only upon being evaluated and cleared in writing by a licensed professional (as defined in the statute).

Information is given on what support is available, and how to find it for all aspects of the postpartum experience, including the early weeks after giving birth, breastfeeding, postpartum depression, returning to work, being a stay - at - home mom, and coping after subsequent births.

Since the three main Westminster political parties all endorse the conclusions of Sir Ian Wood's recent review on how to maximise the economic recovery of oil and gas from the UK Continental Shelf (Search for UKCS Maximising Recovery Review Final Report, here), and its tacit underlying fiscal premises (namely that there is a need for a simplified fiscal regime to incentivise investment and drilling activity, as well as to ease the burden upon the new regulator of the upstream sector), it does not take the gift of prophecy to appreciate that the ultimate outcome of this subsequent review on the shape of the UK fiscal regime seems foreordained; namely, a return to the situation that prevailed before the introduction of SC, whereby the only levy on income from oil and gas fields is to be Corporation Income Tax at the standard rate levied on the likes of Starbucks and Amazon.

And Derek Draper and Damian McBride have been creating it in large quantities, and they're by no means the first or the most obvious examples, given the loans - for - peerages scandal, various bits of chicanery around the Iraq war and subsequent investigations (e.g. David Kelly), ministerial expense fraud (or at least it would be fraud if you or I tried the same thing on our tax returns), pretty much anything to do with Peter Mandelson and the various leaks, briefings and spin cycles that have characterised the Labour party for the last fifteen years.

Following on from the first series and subsequent prequel, Spartacus has developed something of cult following and true second season of the most explicit show on TV returns with Spartacus raising an army of familiar faces to take on the might of the Roman empire.

But perhaps one of the reasons why this film is so fascinating is that it delves deeply into the formative episodes in Napoleon's early life and gives as much importance to them as to his later actions on the battlefield in Italy, his tenure as emperor, and his subsequent exile, return, and exile.

Dee has enough problems just getting on with life - trying to raise her children, with her children's deadbeat dad and his abusive girlfriend in the same building, and yet even after her conviction is overturned, her subsequent case (spearheaded by the A.C.L.U.) puts her in the D.A.'s crosshairs - who uses his substantial infuence to not only prevent her from returning to her job of 7 years, but even makes sure that she is terminated from the minimum wage job she finally manages to procure.

If the subsequent adaptation of author Kurt Vonnegut Jr.'s acclaimed novel Breakfast of Champions failed to capture the essence of the written word, Nolte still managed to offer an impressive performance in the following year's The Golden Bowl.At this point in his career Nolte could certainly be counted on to turn in compelling performances regardless of the project, which made the return of his former demons more tragic than ever.

The Wizard of Oz hit that with the Judy Garland version; I believe all subsequent versions have either been based on different books in the series (Return to Oz) or had a radically different take on it (The Wiz).

There are currently 490 apps in the Kindle Active Content store but Amazon dropped support for it when the Voyage was released in 2014 and it hasn't returned on subsequent e-readers.

The BMO Asset Allocation Fund and the RBC Monthly Income Fund (series F) outperformed the index portfolio on three important benchmarks — the extent of their bear market losses, the magnitude of their subsequent recovery between March and June of this year, and their five - year average returns.

In contrast, I've often quoted the Shiller P / E (which essentially uses a 10 - year average of inflation - adjusted earnings) as a simple but historically informative alternative, but I should emphasize that we strongly prefer our standard methodologies based on earnings, forward earnings, dividends and other fundamentals, all which have a fairly tight relationship with subsequent 7 - 10 year total returns (see Lessons from a Lost Decade, The Likely Range of Market Returns in the Coming Decade, Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings, and No Margin of Safety, No Room for returns (see Lessons from a Lost Decade, The Likely Range of Market Returns in the Coming Decade, Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings, and No Margin of Safety, No Room for Returns in the Coming Decade, Valuing the S&P 500 Using Forward Operating Earnings, and No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error).

That imbalance of eagerness between buyers and sellers has clearly affected prices of risky assets, but it does not generate new cash flows - it simply raises the valuation that the market places on existing streams of future cash flows, and thereby lowers the subsequent rate of return on holding those securities.

Note that this applies to IRAs only, and not employer - sponsored accounts such as 401 (k) s and 403 (b) s. Also, these distributions are counted as income on the tax return, which could affect financial aid eligibility in the subsequent year.

Historically, the Fed tends to start new easing cycles well into established bear markets, and not surprisingly, the subsequent returns have been quite good on average.

Intuitively, a valuation multiple of half the historical norm has the opposite impact on subsequent returns as a valuation multiple of twice the historical norm.]

The next chart shows the margin - adjusted CAPE on an inverted log scale (blue), along with actual subsequent S&P 500 average annual nominal total returns (red).

On the measures we find most tightly correlated with actual subsequent market returns across history, the S&P 500 is now between 150 % and 170 % above valuation norms that have been approached or breached over the completion of every market cycle in history, including the most recent one.

In subsequent articles I will conduct some calculations that assume dividends are reinvested annually, but all the portfolio growth and spending assumptions are still on a total return basis.