In this study for Geology, Makan Karegar and colleagues use precise Global Positioning System (GPS) data to measure
subsidence rates of the Mississippi Delta.
So far, the results suggest
subsidence rates of some 9 millimeters per year in the southwest, and just 2 — 4 in the southeast.
The subsidence rate of many coastal areas is high — 5 to 10 times the mythical «sea rise».
Not exact matches
Beyond sea level rise, San Francisco is slowly sinking at a
rate of up to 10 millimeters per year in a process called
subsidence.
The researchers also analyzed how
subsidence rates varied along adjacent 30 - meter sections
of track.
The results show that the metro is particularly vulnerable to highly variable
rates of subsidence, says Cathleen Jones, a radar scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
Studies have shown that coastal
subsidence has been highest in some areas with the highest
rates of extraction.
Earth - shaking change Whatever the current
rate of subsidence, it may not reflect the full scale
of the problem.
In the Mississippi Delta, where
rates of land loss are especially severe,
subsidence of the land surface reflects natural processes, such as sediment compaction and crustal loading, but this is exacerbated by anthropogenic withdrawal
of fluids (water, oil, natural gas).
Thus, induced seismicity can be caused by injecting fluid into the subsurface or by extracting fluids at a
rate that causes
subsidence and / or slippage along planes
of weakness in the earth.»
Accurate estimates
of the current
rate of subsidence in the Mississippi Delta (southern USA) are important for planning wetland restoration and predictions
of storm surge flooding.
The southern portion
of the delta continues to experience high
rates of subsidence (5 to 6 mm per year).
The current
rate of relative sea - level rise (the combined effect
of land
subsidence and sea - level rise) along parts
of the coastal delta is nearly 8 to 9 mm per year.
I recently researched causes
of subsidence in Bangladesh (Brown and Nicholls 2015) and struggled with the uncertainties, data errors, and in some cases, poor science when recording
rates of subsidence.
«Data from GPS measurements and carbon dating
of marsh sediments indicate that regional land
subsidence in response to glacial isostatic adjustment in the southern Chesapeake Bay region may have a current
rate of about 1 mm / yr (Engelhart and others, 2009; Engelhart and Horton, 2012).
Most
of the Middle Mississippi River levees are currently
rated Unacceptable (like 44.5 %
of rated levee miles nationwide); plus there are major geotechnical issue documented by our research —
subsidence and compaction and un-permitted levee modifications using road gravel that is unsuited to flood control.
A continuation
of these high
rates of subsidence is likely to put much
of the densely populated coastal areas below relative sea level within a few decades.
Hereabouts,
subsidence accounted for about half the «alarming»
rate of sea level rise along the coast as measured by tide gauges.
People living near Kostolac — with houses close to the opencast mine which feeds the power plant — say there is a high
rate of respiratory disease in the area; houses have also been damaged by land
subsidence.
This
rate was significantly lower than the 1.2 inches / year calculated by Stephens and Johnson (1951), and Shih et al. (1998) speculated that maintenance
of higher water tables after 1978 was one
of the major reasons for the observed reduction in the
subsidence rate.»
Based on all
of these studies, Stephens and Johnson (1951) concluded that the
subsidence rate would be one foot per decade assuming that the water table is maintained at an 18 — 24 inch depth.
Most countries in South, South East and East Asia are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise due to rapid economic growth and coastward migration
of people into urban coastal areas together with high
rates of anthropogenic
subsidence (for example due to water extraction) in deltas where many
of the densely populated areas are located.
The lower Chesapeake Bay is especially at risk due to high
rates of sinking land (known as
subsidence).96 Climate change and sea level rise are also likely to cause a number
of ecological impacts, including declining water quality and clarity, increases in harmful algae and low oxygen (hypoxia) events, decreases in a number
of species including eelgrass and seagrass beds, and changing interactions among trophic levels (positions in the food chain) leading to an increase in subtropical fish and shellfish species in the bay.66
The authors observe that wide variations in
rates of tectonic uplift and
subsidence in different locations around the world at particular times mean no effective coastal management plan can rest upon speculative computer projections regarding an idealised future global sea level, such as those provided by the United Nations» Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Thousands
of new water wells have been constructed on an emergency basis over the past year, and skyrocketing
rates of groundwater pumping have led to rapid land
subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley.
The highest
rates of subsidence occurred in the northern delta and in regions where natural gas and groundwater extraction is booming, such as the Menoufia Governorate and the Abu Madi gas field.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), DWR, HydroFocus and the University
of California at Berkeley have been studying
subsidence and GHG emissions
of rice and managed wetlands in the delta since the 1980s and have documented very high
rates of primary productivity in wetlands.
However, within the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico,
subsidence contributes to relative sea - level rise with
rates in east Texas as high as 6.0 mm / yr (Paine, 1993).
As coastal communities have become aware
of the problems associated with groundwater depletion and coastal
subsidence, the
rate of local sea level rise has slowed, at Galveston at least (Paine et al., 2012, GCAGS Journal 1:13 - 26), so the likely sea level rise is even less than the corrections above would imply.
Although fluctuating sea level rises over the past several centuries have averaged about 7 inches, and continue to rise at that
rate with no evidence
of acceleration, land
subsidence and hurricane risks are ever - present issues that must be taken into account.
The risk
rating analyses and determines the level
of threat that
subsidence poses at a specific postcode, and is based on extensive
subsidence insurance claims data from Property Assure.