The very high significance levels of model — observation discrepancies in LT and MT trends that were obtained in some studies (e.g., Douglass et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010) thus arose to a
substantial degree from using the standard error of the model ensemble mean as a measure of
uncertainty, instead of the ensemble standard deviation or some other appropriate measure for
uncertainty arising from internal climate variability... Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than
observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2013).