The phrase
"substantial uncertainty" means a situation where there is a lot of doubt or lack of clarity about something. It suggests that there is a significant amount of unknown information or factors that make it hard to predict or understand the outcome.
Full definition
There is also
substantial uncertainty in the ultimate amount of warming that would result from any given increase in atmospheric CO2 content.
And even if we had more confidence in the forces behind past movements in asset values, we would still face
substantial uncertainty about their future behavior.
And even if we knew what average valuations will be in the future, our estimate would still
contain substantial uncertainty, because valuation is highly cyclical.
It does
note substantial uncertainties in looking ahead, particularly because the model simulations didn't achieve the observed increase in intensity of storm output.
Outside these areas, the sign and magnitude of projected changes varies between models, leading to
substantial uncertainty in precipitation projections.
The standard proxy reconstructions based on linear regression are generally reasonable statistical methods for estimating past temperatures but may be associated
with substantial uncertainty.
Because there is
substantial uncertainty regarding the considerations governing future coal production, three cases were developed to illustrate this range of uncertainty.
The ongoing reappraisal of the diagnostic criteria for the autistic spectrum of disorders over recent decades has led to
substantial uncertainty over whether a true increase in incidence exists or whether such diagnostic shifts represent an artifactual increase.
As previously mentioned, history shows an investment in the U.S. market as a whole has delivered about 9.6 % a year on average for the last 86 years, but not
without substantial uncertainty.
I propose this word as shorthand for a rigorous and dispassionate kind of self regard, even self appreciation, to be employed when individuals or communities face consequential decisions attended
by substantial uncertainty and polarizing disagreement.
Teachers without Social Security coverage
face substantial uncertainty and must rely more heavily on their employer retirement plans (state pensions) and personal savings.
And of course there's
still substantial uncertainty in climate models at the regional scale in war - prone places (again, a prime example is the set of countries along the southern fringe of the Sahara Desert, where models still clash on which areas will grow drier or wetter; see my Somalia posts.)
Then I read the editorial by Michael Stein, which I think sums things up quite well: «In particular, the presence of
even substantial uncertainties does not necessarily mean that the appropriate response is to wait for better information about the future climate.
Because if computer models were in fact the principal basis for our concern, then you have to admit that there are still
substantial uncertainties as to whether we have all the physics in there, and how accurate we have it.
As Powell noted in his February speech, «The neutral rate changes significantly over time, and estimates of its level
entail substantial uncertainty.»
«Although in several
countries substantial uncertainty remains in monitoring tobacco exposure and estimating the disease burden associated with it, there can be no doubt that both are large.
However, their estimate does not account
for substantial uncertainties in the analysis of such a short time period, most notably those associated with the role of internal climate variability in the rapid tropospheric warming of 1976.
While substantial uncertainties remain as to the precise consequences of this increase and consequent temperature rise, there is reason to believe many of the effects will be quite negative.
The Law Commission proposes some kind of non-binding «guidance» about «needs» to assist decision - makers in their task of interpreting that term in specific cases, which serves to underscore the fact that there will be
substantial uncertainty under its proposal as to what the exception will include and how it will be applied.
The shaft of the «stick» has a lot of wiggles and warps and still comes
with substantial uncertainty, but the general pattern is well established.
In my opinion, we have a strong profession obligation NOT to simplify the uncertainty by portraying it as a pdf, when the situation is characterized
by substantial uncertainty that is not statistical in nature.
Although the global community reached a landmark agreement last October to phase down HFCs under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, federal regulations necessary for implementation of the Amendment in the United States, which were passed by the Environmental Protection Agency under the Obama Administration now
face substantial uncertainty.
Taking several published estimates that show some sort of general agreement to produce a very likely conclusion, while ignoring the
very substantial uncertainties in these estimates, should not form the basis for a very likely conclusion.
Rising sea levels are certain in a warming world, but there is still
substantial uncertainty about the extent of the increase in this century, mainly because the dynamics that could erode the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica remain poorly understood.
«There remains
substantial uncertainty regarding several aspects of the CH4 [methane] release from the ESAS [East Siberian Arctic Shelf],» she writes in an article published in Science.
The company reports that its net revenue will increase to over RMB 5.8 billion ($ 924.0 million) in the second quarter of the year, but said the prediction is subject to «
substantial uncertainty.»
«There remain real and
substantial uncertainties about the pace and eventual outcome of [international] negotiations.
Indeed, the main quandary faced by climate scientists is how to estimate climate sensitivity from the Little Ice Age or Medieval Warm Period, at all, given the relative small forcings over the past 1000 years, and
the substantial uncertainties in both the forcings and the temperature changes.