Sentences with phrase «substantial uncertainty in the trend»

Not exact matches

Uncertainty in these trend values arises from different methodological choices made by the groups deriving satellite products (Mears et al., 2011) and radiosonde compilations (Thorne et al., 2011), and from fitting a linear trend to a time series containing substantial interannual and decadal variability (Santer et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010).

The very high significance levels of model - observation discrepancies in LT and MT trends that were obtained in some studies (e.g., Douglass et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010) thus arose to a substantial degree from using the standard error of the model ensemble mean as a measure of uncertainty, instead of the standard deviation or some other appropriate measure of ensemble spread.

The very high significance levels of model — observation discrepancies in LT and MT trends that were obtained in some studies (e.g., Douglass et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010) thus arose to a substantial degree from using the standard error of the model ensemble mean as a measure of uncertainty, instead of the ensemble standard deviation or some other appropriate measure for uncertainty arising from internal climate variability... Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2013).

The issue of tropospheric temperature trends is very difficult and has received a great deal of attention by researchers and also assessment reports; the problems are much worse for humidity and few people have even attempted to do anything with tropospheric humidity trends owing to inaccuracies in the radiosonde humidity measurements and substantial uncertainties in the satellite retrievals.

Here's the kicker: the uncertainty in those trend rates is probably higher, perhaps by a substantial amount, because that graph is based on an AR (1) model for the noise.