More interestingly, as the article's title
suggests, the sensitivity of the result to the national popular
vote changes dramatically in the two
methods, and in 2016, not in Clinton's favor (though 538 is wise enough, as usual, to note that this is specific to 2016 and you can't and shouldn't draw generic parallels to 2020 etc..)
Projecting the changes in the Westminster
vote intention on to seats with the regression
method (final two columns)
suggests the Conservatives will emerge (for the first time in a long time) with a substantial lead in both
votes and seats.