Not exact matches
c G: greenhouse gases; Sul: direct
sulphate aerosol effect; Suli: (first)
indirect sulphate effect; OzT: tropospheric ozone; OzS: stratospheric ozone; Vol: volcanism; Sol: solar; BC+OM: black carbon and organic matter.).
Most studies consider a range of anthropogenic forcing factors, including greenhouse gases and
sulphate aerosol forcing, sometimes directly including the
indirect forcing
effect, such as Knutti et al. (2002, 2003), and sometimes indirectly accounting for the
indirect effect by using a wide range of direct forcing (e.g., Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002, 2006).
The bottom line is that uncertainties in the physics of
aerosol effects (warming from black carbon, cooling from
sulphates and nitrates,
indirect effects on clouds,
indirect effects on snow and ice albedo) and in the historical distributions, are really large (as acknowledged above).
Thus the balance is that soot has more positive
effect than the combined direct and
indirect negative
effects of
sulphate (and other)
aerosols.
This was shown to be the case for near - surface temperatures in the PCM (Meehl et al., 2004), in the Hadley Centre Climate Model version 2 (HadCM2; Gillett et al., 2004c) and in the GFDL CM2.1 (see Table 8.1) model (Knutson et al., 2006), although none of these studies considered the
indirect effects of
sulphate aerosols.
In addition, some models include the
indirect effects of tropospheric
sulphate aerosols on clouds (e.g., Tett et al., 2002), whereas others consider only the direct radiative
effect (e.g., Meehl et al., 2004).
Note that most models do not use other forcings described in Chapter 6 such as soot, the
indirect effect of
sulphate aerosols, or land - use changes.
In fact, most of the GCM studies of the
indirect aerosol effect used
sulphate as a surrogate for the total anthropogenic fraction of the
aerosol (e.g., Boucher and Lohmann, 1995; Feichter et al., 1997; Lohmann and Feichter, 1997).
In terms of
sulphate aerosols, both the direct radiative
effects and the
indirect effects on clouds were acknowledged, but the importance of carbonaceous
aerosols from fossil fuel and biomass combustion was not recognised (Chapters 2, 7 and 10).
The RF bar chart was now broken into
aerosol components (
sulphate, fossil - fuel soot and biomass burning
aerosols) with a separate range for
indirect effects (Chapters 2 and 7; Sections 8.2 and 9.2).