The paper is a technical analysis of the uncertainties involved in computer modeling studies that use the amount of phosphorus entering Lake Erie in the spring to predict the size of late -
summer cyanobacteria blooms, which have grown larger since the mid-1990s.
Other potential explanations for the reported trend in
bloom susceptibility are increasingly calm
summer weather conditions, which can also promote
cyanobacteria dominance, and a growing reservoir of Microcystis seed colonies at the bottom of Lake Erie.