There has been a long - term downward trend in
summer global sea ice extent, though the trend is less clear in the winter, reflecting the fact that the Arctic shows a clearer long - term trend than the Antarctic.
Not exact matches
Regarding the future evolution of Arctic
sea ice, the internationally agreed objective to limit
global warming to two degree Celsius is not sufficient to allow Arctic
summer sea ice to survive.
As the Arctic
summers are getting warmer we may see an acceleration of
global warming, because reduced
sea ice in the Arctic will remove less CO2 from the atmosphere, Danish scientists report.
It concludes that the two degrees Celsius
global warming target agreed on in the most recent UN Climate Conference will not allow Arctic
summer sea ice to survive.
Due to
global warming, larger and larger areas of
sea ice melt in the
summer and when
sea ice freezes over in the winter it is thinner and more reduced.
The
global mean temperature rise of less than 1 degree C in the past century does not seem like much, but it is associated with a winter temperature rise of 3 to 4 degrees C over most of the Arctic in the past 20 years, unprecedented loss of
ice from all the tropical glaciers, a decrease of 15 to 20 % in late
summer sea ice extent, rising sealevel, and a host of other measured signs of anomalous and rapid climate change.
The East Asian
summer monsoon and desertification in Eurasia is driven by fluctuating Northern Hemisphere
ice volume and global sea level during the Ice Age, as shown in a study published in Nature Communicatio
ice volume and
global sea level during the
Ice Age, as shown in a study published in Nature Communicatio
Ice Age, as shown in a study published in Nature Communications.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with
global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow
summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decades.
I am very well aware and have previously blogged that there are multiple factors that determine the degree of
ice lost any given year — but the literature is clear that even in 2007,
global warming played «a large part» (see «What drove the dramatic retreat of arctic
sea ice during
summer 2007?
And there is no doubt that continued
global warming will lead to a reduction in the amount of
summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.
Even with the increasing
summer retreats of
sea ice, which climate scientists say are being driven in large part by
global warming caused by humans....
Although again I challenge you to name even five polar scientists who do not think human - caused
global warming is the dominant cause of «the increasing
summer retreats of
sea ice.»
But as a starting point, I'll propose now — and I'll change this if they disagree — the names of some leading scientists in this field who would NOT say there is sufficient evidence to conclude that human - caused
global warming IS the main cause of increasing
summer retreats of
sea ice (although they would say there is strong likelihood that it will eventually dominate):
Even with the increasing
summer retreats of
sea ice, which polar scientists say probably are being driven in large part by
global warming caused by humans....
Even with the increasing
summer retreats of
sea ice, which climate scientists say are being driven by
global warming caused by humans....
But just as the species has been recovering from that threat,
global warming is creating new pressures through the loss of
summer sea ice and other impacts on the bears» preferred maritime habitat.
«The very low
summer extent of Arctic
sea ice that has been observed in recent years is often casually interpreted as an early - warning sign of anthropogenic
global warming.
Last
summer's record loss of
ice was due to a combination of natural cycle and
global warming factors: «more greenhouse gases, an unusual wind pattern, and warming of the ocean water in regions with reduced
sea ice.»
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the
global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a
summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when
ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Having said that, it is a really small effect — if the entire Arctic
summer sea ice pack melted (average thickness 2 metres, density ~ 920 kg / m3, area 3 × 10 ^ 6 km ^ 2 (0.8 % total ocean area) = > a 4.5 cm rise instantly which implies a
global sea level rise of 0.36 mm.
Over all, the analysts as a group see no deviation from the long - term trend toward thinning and dwindling
summer sea ice given how the Arctic tends to amplify the long - term
global warming trend.
Tags: acceleration, climate change, daily mail, daily telegraph, drainage system, geographer,
global warming, greenland
ice sheet, himalayan glacier, himalayan glaciers, hot
summer, internal drainage, jan 28, journal nature, karakoram range, london jan, oceans, range of mountains,
sea levels, university of potsdam
OK, so apart from the Hockey stick graph, the disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers, the melting of
summer Arctic
sea ice, the lack of hurricane activity, the erroneous relationship between malaria and
global warming, the resilience of corals, the obstinacy of Tuvalu and the Maldives to disappear to the
sea, the manipulation of instrumental temperature data... (Gasp for breath!)
Arbetter, 4.7, Statistical A statistical model using regional observations of
sea ice area and
global NCEP air temperature,
sea level pressure, and freezing degree day estimates continues the trend of projecting below - average
summer sea ice conditions for the Arctic.
Tagged Christine Graham, climate change, concerns about extinction, Daily Mail, David Rose, decline,
global warming, GWPF,
ice - free Arctic, IPCC, melting
ice cap, observations, polar bears, polar bears thriving, predictions,
sea ice loss,
summer sea ice minimum
The Davis Strait polar bear subpopulation is said to be «vulnerable» to the supposed effects of
global warming because, like Hudson Bay, Davis Strait
sea ice retreats every
summer, leaving polar bears on land for several months.
At least a dozen polar bears that besieged a remote Russian weather station on an island in the Kara
Sea during the first two weeks of September prompted a few media pundits to suggest that loss of summer sea ice due to global warming may be forcing polar bears to hunt humans for fo
Sea during the first two weeks of September prompted a few media pundits to suggest that loss of
summer sea ice due to global warming may be forcing polar bears to hunt humans for fo
sea ice due to
global warming may be forcing polar bears to hunt humans for food.
Human - caused
global warming contributes to the
summer Greenland warming (Figure 3), which causes snow to melt earlier, which causes decreased local albedo, which contributes to record Greeland
ice sheet decline, which further decreases local albedo, which in turn contributes to the Arctic
sea ice decline.
The resulting enhanced loss of
summer and winter
sea ice resulted in feedbacks, associated with Arctic Amplification, which has raised Arctic air temperatures at a rate twice the
global average.
From historic droughts around the world and in places like California, Syria, Brazil and Iran to inexorably increasing glacial melt; from an expanding blight of fish killing and water poisoning algae blooms in lakes, rivers and oceans to a growing rash of
global record rainfall events; and from record Arctic
sea ice volume losses approaching 80 percent at the end of the
summer of 2012 to a rapidly thawing permafrost zone explosively emitting an ever - increasing amount of methane and CO2, it's already a disastrous train - wreck.
Furthermore, the Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the
global average, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification, and stimulated by the combined increasing Arctic temperatures and rapid loss of
sea ice in all seasons along with declining snow cover in the spring and early
summer.
Including open - water phytoplankton biomarkers as well as micropaleontological data, we demonstrate (1) that a permanent
sea ice cover existed during MIS 6 and (2) that during the LIG
sea ice was still present in the central Arctic Ocean during the spring /
summer season even under (
global) boundary conditions significantly warmer than the present.
Declining Arctic
sea ice reached a milestone in the
summer of 1998 when the
ice pulled back completely from the Arctic coasts of Alaska and Canada, opening up the Northwest passage through which the diatom may have passed, Reid and colleagues write in their report of the diatom's return published in the journal
Global Change Biology in 2007.
For example, the dramatic decline of
summer sea ice in the Arctic — a loss of
ice cover roughly equal to half the area of the continental United States — exacerbates
global warming by reducing the reflectivity of Earth's surface and increasing the amount of heat absorbed.
The researchers assert that the record - breaking
sea ice loss from
summer 2012, combined with the unusual atmospheric phenomena observed in late October, appear to be linked to
global warming.
In contrast, the scenario in Fig. 5A, with
global warming peaking just over 1 °C and then declining slowly, should allow
summer sea ice to survive and then gradually increase to levels representative of recent decades.
The small
global mean change, however, is expected to create large problems in sensitive areas of the Earth system — rising
sea level leading to increased coastal flooding, more heat waves and drought, and the disappearance of
summer Arctic
sea ice, to name a few.
Now we have poor hunting conditions in the Bering Strait touted as evidence that «walrus migration patterns have changed» with the implication that this is because ``... the past eight years have had the eight lowest amounts of
summer sea ice on record» due to man - made
global warming.
«Arctic
Ice in «Death Spiral» with additional heating due to global warming, the extent of sea ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller over the summers since the 198
Ice in «Death Spiral» with additional heating due to
global warming, the extent of
sea ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller over the summers since the 198
ice cover has gotten smaller and smaller over the
summers since the 1980s.
In fact, it's pretty clear that the end -
summer sea ice extent at one Pole doesn't mean anything WRT
global temperature, especially if there is an opposite trend at the other Pole.
Global warming is remaking the Arctic, with changes like
ice - free
sea lanes across the Arctic Ocean in
summer, or no - longer - so - eternal permafrost on land, unprecedented in human history.
Routinely in this kind of narrative, the plight of polar bears,
summer sea ice melt,
global warming, and anthropogenic CO2 are conflated as the one and same thing, as each other's cause and effect, rather than treated as phenomena that have distinct and complex causes.
For example, additional evidence of a warming trend can be found in the dramatic decrease in the extent of Arctic
sea ice at its
summer minimum (which occurs in September), decrease in spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, increases in the
global average upper ocean (upper 700 m or 2300 feet) heat content (shown relative to the 1955 — 2006 average), and in
sea - level rise.
Susan Crockford is a polar bear expert with a message that climate alarmists don't want to hear: polar bear populations are thriving and are certainly in no danger from thinning
summer sea ice supposedly caused by «man - made
global warming.»
Scientists monitor both Arctic and Antarctic
sea ice, but Arctic
sea ice is more significant to understanding
global climate because much more Arctic
ice remains through the
summer months, reflecting sunlight and cooling the planet.
Last
summer, we predicted that come this winter, any type of severe weather event was going to be linked to pernicious industrial activity (via
global warming) through a new mechanism that had become a media darling — the loss of late
summer / early fall Arctic
sea ice leading to more persistent patterns in the jet stream.
The USGS simply refuses to acknowledge
global warming and lost
summer sea ice has NOT produced any catastrophic change for polar bears in the recent past.
According to the US National Snow and
Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 — and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.&raq
Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic
summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 — and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.&raq
ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 — and even the most committed
global warming activists do not dispute this.»
•
Global polar bear numbers have been stable or risen slightly since 2005, despite the fact that
summer sea ice since 2007 hit levels not expected until mid-century: the predicted 67 % decline in polar bear numbers did not occur.
• Abundant prey and adequate
sea ice in spring and early
summer since 2007 appear to explain why
global polar bear numbers have not declined, as might have been expected as a result of low
summer sea ice levels.